Canada's New "Sorta" Space Plan Only Really Covers the Canadian Space Agency, Not "Whole of Government" Activities

          By Chuck Black

Almost a month after the March 6th, 2019 formal release of "Exploration, Imagination, Innovation - A New Space Strategy for Canada" by the governing Justin Trudeau Liberals, it's becoming increasingly obvious that the new Canadian space strategy is simply not the comprehensive "whole of government review" of activities, policies and legislation expected.

According to the February 23rd, 2015 Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat website on the Whole of Government Framework, since 2005 the Treasury Board has "supported the development of a common, government-wide approach to the collection, management, and reporting of financial and non-financial information on program objectives, performance, and results." The whole-of-government framework maps "the financial and non-financial contributions of departments, agencies, and Crown corporations receiving appropriations to a set of 16 high-level Government of Canada outcome areas within four Government of Canada spending areas—Economic, Social, International, and Government Affairs." Graphic c/o Treasury Board of Canada.

At the very least, it's certainly not a long-term space plan.

It is instead a very limited listing of upcoming Canadian Space Agency (CSA) activities and priorities focused almost entirely around component contributions to the US led Lunar Gateway, a program currently in a state of flux.

It's not that there's anything wrong with that. It's simply that, after waiting for over fifteen years for something a little bit more comprehensive and perhaps a little more Canadian, we were hoping for better.

For example, the new plan doesn't really reference other space focused initiatives from other Federal government departments, such as the new Canadian Minerals and Metals Plan (CMMP), a Canadian government program last discussed in the March 4th, 2019 post, "The New Canadian Minerals and Metals Plan Stakes its Claim on the Space Industry."

The new plan doesn't really reference academia or the private sector either, except perhaps to congratulate them for their past accomplishments and to offer up a few more opportunities for funding.

The new Canadian space strategy isn't even really a self contained plan since its primary justification is as a smaller component of the Liberal’s 2017 Innovation and Skills Plan which is focused almost entirely around jobs creation.

Traditional long-term space plans, beginning with the 1967 "Chapman Report," known more formally as "Upper Atmosphere and Space Programs in Canada" by J.H. Chapman, P.A. Forsyth, P.A. Lapp and G.N. Patterson, were far larger and contained considerably more information collected from a variety of government departments.

For example, as outlined in the June 1967 Science Council of Canada overview of the 1967 Chapman report, under the title "Report No. 1, A Space Program for Canada," the 140+ page Chapman report was divided into three parts:

The first describes current and projected government, university, and industrial programs for the 1961 to 1971 period in considerable detail. Statistical information on these programs is compiled from the original sources. The comments and recommendations of the study group are included.  

The second part is devoted to the texts of agreements, memoranda of understanding, and other international arrangements in effect on October 31, 1966, and which record the official undertakings with regard to the Alouette-ISIS Scientific Program, the International Communications Satellite Program, the St. John's, Newfoundland, Tracking and Telemetry Station, and the operation of the Churchill Research Range. 

Part three of the report is in the nature of an appendix to the first part, presenting the High Altitude Research Program of McGill University in considerably greater detail. 

This was a reasonably comprehensive listing of pretty much everything the Canadian government was supporting in this area at the time.

John Chapman (1921 - 1979) and another of his legacies, the Alouette-1 satellite. As outlined in the Fall 1992 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Canadian Review post, "The 30th Anniversary of Alouette I," Chapman "was convinced of the need to develop the capability to design and build space hardware in Canadian industry and to move away from the practice of relying solely on the expertise of the government laboratories. As a result, Alouette II and the ISIS satellites were built, with steadily increasing participation by Canadian industry." Photo's c/o IEEE Canada.

But the new, twenty page Liberal space strategy is only a seventh the size of its illustrious predecessor and far less comprehensive. Once we get past the ministers message and a couple of nice full page and half page graphics, the remaining pages are divided into three sections:

A series of discussions on "Canada's Legacy in Space," including the role of space in developing Canadian science expertise and a short essay on "The Socio-Economic Benefits of Space," which covers metrics related to gross domestic revenues, employment and industry and private sector opportunities for future growth. 

An overview of "Canada's Vision for Space," focused around science and the need to utilize space focused technologies as "a key element" of the Federal Government’s 2017 Innovation and Skills Plan, focused around generating new middle class jobs in  innovative sectors. 

Several pages on "Delivering the Vision," which included $1.9Bln CDN for a next-generation AI-enabled deep-space robotic system (essentially, a new "Canadarm") for the US led Lunar Gateway program, a re-commitment to the Canadian astronaut program, substantial new educational outreach and several other programs relating to solving "everyday challenges" for Canadians.

While the new policy does mention "science," at least in passing, it certainly doesn't attempt to inventory space focused initiatives taking place across Canada through the National Research Council (NRC) or other government and private sector organizations.

Such an inventory, a standard component of the traditional "whole of government" approach to the problem is certainly not impossible to generate. A good place to start could be the Industry Page on this blog.

The lack of an inventory would suggest that the new policy is not the comprehensive, final word on Canadian space initiatives pitched by the Canadian government.

Also, while the new strategy does mention the need to "create a modern regulatory framework," it doesn't go into any detail on which specific regulations need to be addressed and updated. As outlined in both the December 14th, 2018 post, "2019 Federal Pre-Budget Consultation Report Mentions "Significant, Ongoing Investments to Advance Canada’s Space Program"" and the March 5th, 2018 post, "That Commercial Ground Station Built by New North Networks in Inuvik Still Can't be Used," specific areas requiring updated legislation have certainly presented themselves to those willing to do the appropriate research.

Others are slowly coming to the conclusion that the new space strategy is neither a panacea nor a "whole of government" document.

As outlined in the March 25th, 2019 SpaceQ post, "Opinion: Finally, a New Canadian Space Strategy – But Wait, What do we do With This?," a few are beginning to ask about the absence of a Canadian government commitment to regulatory reform in the document.

As outlined in the April 1st, 2019 Ottawa Citizen post, "Steer: Space needs more Canada – but Canada needs a better approach to space," at least one person, Dr. Cassandra Steer, an independent space security consultant contracted to Kanata ON based Space Strategies Consulting Ltd., has also questioned the absence of commitment to international space security initiatives in the new space policy.

These concerns are just the beginning. Expect more to surface over the next few months as the full extent of the Liberals failure in the area begins to sink in.

Chuck Black.

___________________________________________________________

Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog. 

The Difference Between Maxar/ MDA, AIAC and Almost Everyone Else in the #DontLetGoCanada Campaign

          By Chuck Black

It's worth noting that public documents from Brampton ON based MDA Space Missions (a subsidiary of Westminster Colorado based Maxar Technologies) mostly agree with public policy proposals generated by the Aerospace Industries Association of Canada (AIAC) and with the rest of the #DontLetGoCanada coalition, regarding the need for a "balanced space program" with a range of funded activities.

Except for the part where Maxar/ MDA has suggested that the best way to build that balanced program is to have the Federal government provide several billion extra Canadian dollars for one specific "third generation" Canadarm for the US led Lunar Orbital Platform-Gateway (LOP-G or Lunar Gateway).

Who would get the lion's share of that single new funding opportunity? Why, Maxar/ MDA of course!

In fact, newly uncovered documents indicate that the #DontLetGoCanada organizers may not have even mentioned the funding requirements for a new Canadarm in the #DontLetGoCanada initial campaign literature, although the program itself was referenced. 

This blog has come into possession of August 2018 MDA "kick-off" email (under the title "Please Support Canada's Place in Space Campaign") intended to generate interest in what was then, the start of the #DontLetGoCanada advocacy campaign.

It was co-signed by "Mike and Jim," shorthand for MDA group president Mike Greenley and AIAC president and CEO Jim Quick, but sent from Greenley's MDA email account.

According to that e-mail:

Together, we are embarking on a communications campaign to encourage a more positive outcome in the 2019 Budget (for the Canadian space industry). 

The campaign, which is called "Securing Canada's Place in Space (later changed to #DontLetGoCanada)," will advocate for a long-term, fully funded space strategy that establishes the requisite funding to maintain and enhance our existing capabilities in space science, space robotics, satellite communications, Earth observation, optics and sensors and cultivate new areas of leadership.  

The campaign will also call for a commitment by Canada to participate in the international space community's next big exploration project, the Lunar Gateway Program. 

AIAC is also planning a concurrent and complimentary government relations initiative, called Vision 2025. which will also launch in September. 

A photo of the complete August 2018 e-mail from MDA group president Greenley and AIAC president and CEO Jim Quick to various Canadian space companies outlining their perspectives on what was needed to insure Canada's future in space and how both organizations intended to move forward with the creation of a group (then called the "Canada's Place in Space Campaign") intended to lobby the Federal government to support the space industry. As can be seen in the email, no one was then suggesting that the only real solution was to pay large sums of money to MDA to build a "third generation Canadarm," although the program was referenced. Photo c/o The Commercial Space blog. 

In essence, the email called for a "fully funded space strategy," but only a "commitment" to the Lunar Gateway.

AIAC policy in this area has also been discussed in multiple document and in greater detail over the last few years. Examples include the 2016 AIAC submission to the Pre-Budget Consultations in Advance of the 2017 Budget under the title"Recommendations for Growth and Innovation - Budget 2017" and the AIAC September 2016 paper on "The Future of Canada's Space Sector."

Neither of those papers recommended funding the Lunar Gateway which, to be fair, hadn't been proposed at that time. The 2016 AIAC budget submission instead asked for:

• Increased funding, an extra $55Mln CDN over two years for space technology development and innovation.

• A commitment to developing new Canadian space missions and operations. 

• Continued support for flagship programs and capabilities

• The development and maintenance of "a balanced approach" for space

Those positions were congruent with the August 2018 MDA/AIAC email outlined above, which advocated for a balanced space program that delivered a range of benefits.

But independently of AIAC and as outlined in the September 18, 2018 post, "Colorado Based Maxar/MDA Asking for $1-2Bln to Build Another Canadarm for the US LOP-G," Maxar/MDA did focus on the third generation Canadarm/ Lunar Gateway in its written submission to the 2019 Federal government Pre-Budget Consultations and listed its funding as the "important first pillar" needed to revitalize the Canadian space industry.

The MDA submission also costed out the project at $1Bln - 2Bln CDN over at least the next decade or two. That works out to $50Mln - 100Mln CDN for each year of the program, a substantial portion of the current overall CSA budget.

But Mike Greenley's October 4th, 2018 in-person presentation to the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance (FINA) Pre-Budget Consultations in Advance of the 2019 Budget, only mentioned the preliminary budgeted costs to implement the program in passing, although he once again stressed how much the project is needed.

According to Greenley:

If we imagine the next generation of Canadarm space robotics on this new space station, there would two components—a large robotic arm that would be used to assemble the space station over the next seven years, and then the small dextrous arm that would support robotic operations helping astronauts. This small arm would also be able to crawl inside the space station and maintain and operate it during times when there are no astronauts on the space station.

To make all of this happen, budget 2019—this budget that we're discussing—and decisions by government in 2018 have to be made. The Government of Canada needs to recognize space as a national strategic asset, based on the 50 years of experience we've had. 

It needs to polish a long-term space plan for Canada, and this next budget must make a commitment for Canada to contribute the AI-based robotics to the next space station, the lunar gateway. 

Mike Greenley. Photo c/o MDA.

That is a $1 billion to $2 billion commitment. NASA and the international community need to see that Canada has made that commitment so that Canada can continue its leading role in the provision of space robotics to the international community.

No other specific funding was recommended by Greenley during his presentation, even though he stated explicitly that "I'm also representing several hundred other Canadian companies today that are engaged in Canada's space industry," and most of them also have projects which would benefit from further Federal funding.

In essence, MDA’s campaign (despite its references to others) was focused on a single flagship project (a third generation Canadarm for the LOP-G/ Lunar Gateway). Such a program would benefit  Maxar/ MDA far more than any Canadian based organization.

Perhaps the strongest support for the MDA proposal comes from the October 22nd, 2018 SpaceQ post, "MDA Makes a Forceful Point at Pre-Budget 2019 Finance Committee Meeting."

According to SpaceQ, the Maxar/ MDA recommendation is:

...an important first pillar of Canada’s long-term space plan, the government (should) announce a commitment in Budget 2019 (at the latest – time is running out) to provide a third generation Canadarm to the international space community’s next big exploration mission, the Gateway project. 

This is not merely an MDA wish. The (NASA operated) International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG), which is made up of 14 national space agencies, has been for years laying the groundwork for what’s next after the International Space Station (ISS).

That vision centres around the moon and Mars with the now US led Lunar Orbital Platform-Gateway (LOP-G) as the leading project. Nations are currently making the decision if they will participate in the LOP-G and at what financial commitment level. 

The US is hoping, heck, literally banking on Canada’s participation, to help defray some of the cost. It’s a mega project akin to the International Space Station. Who will step up, contribute and benefit? 

The pressure is on for Canada and other nations to sign on by the end of the year. In examining the areas of what Canada can contribute to, it’s clear there are at least three areas we’re interested in. Robotics, artificial intelligence and medicine. All strengths, all have buy-in by the Canadian Space Agency. 

The question is, will this generate jobs, long term jobs in industries that also have commercial spin-offs. MDA, the Canadian Space Agency and other believe so, otherwise they wouldn’t be backing these technologies.

Of course, SpaceQ is often sponsored by Maxar/MDA, a situation which this blog has often noted.

But since SpaceQ thinks that most of the push to have Canada fund the LOP-G/ Lunar Gateway comes from external sources, it's worth noting that sources within the Canadian space industry have also told this blog that NASA employees (including Bill Gerstenmaier, the NASA administrator for human exploration and operations) are working with senior members of the CSA, the AIAC "space committee" and Maxar/MDA to encourage the Federal government to announce funding for Canada's contribution to the LOP-G program as soon as possible.

The priority for these groups is to secure Federal funding for the LOP-G/ Lunar Gateway, to ensure that Maxar/MDA retains its position as the largest contractor for CSA programs and to ensure that Maxar/MDA retains control of Canadarm intellectual property, according to those sources.

Kristen VanderHoek, the AIAC senior director of communications & marketing responded to a request for clarification on the AIAC's position with the following statement:

I received your voicemail today, as did Jim Quick and (AIAC executive VP) Iain Christie, looking for comment on AIAC’s space policy efforts and involvement in the Don’t Let Go Canada campaign. 

Thanks for your interest!

As the voice of Canada’s aerospace industry, AIAC advocates for policies and programs that support the ability of the industry as a whole to grow, innovate and compete in the global marketplace. 

The “Don’t Let Go Canada” campaign highlights Canada’s history as a global space leader and calls for the creation of a long-term strategy for Canada’s future in space. 

This is something that AIAC has long advocated for, which is why we co-signed the “Don’t Let Go Canada” kick off letter and support the campaign. 

We’ll continue to work on behalf of all our members to ensure that Canada’s industry has the long-term strategy and funding it needs to remain a global space leader. 

Vanderhoek has refused all further comment on the specifics of the MDA Federal government Canadarm funding requests done in conjunction with the #DontLetGoCanada campaign.

As outlined in the October 9th, 2018 Maxar Technologies press release, "Maxar Technologies Advances Planned US Domestication," Maxar/ MDA is still moving forward with its plan to become completely US owned and operated and "expects to complete this process in January 2019, subject to security holder approval."

Chuck Black.

__________________________________________________________

Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog.

Long Awaited DND Polar Sats Postponed. Will be Cancelled/ Replaced/ Renamed After Next Election (Like Last Time)

          By Chuck Black

Back in October 2017, this blog predicted that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would need to make some sort of official announcement before the next Federal budget in March 2018 on the status of the enhanced satellite communication project (ESCP), a long running, expensive, but mostly unfunded proposal to build a two node constellation of modified Molniya orbiting Department of National Defence (DND) satellites "to fill the requirement of the new Canadian defense policy for all-Arctic (communications) coverage."

"Hey Rocky! Watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat!" As outlined in the May 26th, 2016 DND website, "Enhanced Satellite Communication Project," the Liberal government initially postulated final delivery of the two ESCP satellites in 2024 which even then, was kinda amusing. That date has since been superseded by a revised "No later than 2029" final delivery date. Why were the dates so laughable? The ESCP was a follow-on the cancelled Polar Communications and Weather (PCW) constellation which, as outlined in the July 17th, 2016 post, "The Polar Communications & Weather Satellite (PCW) Mission is Dead; To Revive it, our Military Wants More Money," had been kicking around for a decade and had grown from a useful $600Mln CDN proposal into a far larger $4.5Bln CDN potential boondoggle before being cancelled. The previous PCW advocates were initially promised a "final delivery" in 2016. As Rocky the Flying Squirrel would say, "Hokey Smokes!" Graphic c/o Gov't of Canada.

And, as outlined in the October 26th, 2017 post, "A Quick Overview of the Next Few Expected Federal Announcements Concerning the Canadian Space Industry," this blog also suggested that the DND proposal might be at risk of being cancelled or superseded in favor of a purchase of services from one of the numerous (and less expensive) commercial-off-the-shelf low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite communications constellations currently being assessed by the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC). 

Ottawa, ON based Telesat Canada, with it's proposed 290 satellite LEO communications constellation expected to become operational in 2021, was even mentioned as actively lobbying DND to become the "anchor tenant" for its satellite constellation.

But this week, DND released the long anticipated "Request for Information for the Enhanced Satellite Communication Project - Polar (ESPC-P)."

As outlined in the December 4th, 2017 BuyandSell.ca letter of interest LOI/ request for information (RFI) under the title "Enhanced SATCOM Project - Polar (W6369-180123/A)," any real work on the program, now known as ESPC-Polar (or ESPC-P for short) has been pushed out well past the next election.

A contract award for ESCP-P is expected "no later than 2024" according to the LOI/RFI. By the time the satellites are launched and operational, it could be 2029.

This places any contract award well past the 2019 estimated date for the next Federal election and also past the 2020 - 2022 date for the roll-out of many of the FCC proposed civilian LEO com-sat constellations, such as the one proposed by Telesat.

ESPC proposed procurement schedule according to December 4th, 2017 Buyand Sell procurement documentation on the ESCP-P program. Graphic c/o Gov't of Canada.

And here's where it gets silly. After years and years of serious study, the Federal government insists that it still doesn't really know how the satellites should be configured or what they should be doing.

To lesson the confusion, the DND will engage "in a consultative process" as its first step toward actually buying something. According to the LOI/RFI:

In consideration of industry's insights and other operational imperatives, a Request for Information (RFI) is being used to initiate engagement with industry to help further define the requirements for a more comprehensive solution as well as to understand current market capacity and interest in preparation of a subsequent RFP (Request for Proposal).

That first phase is scheduled to take at least another year. Key objectives include:

• Informing "Industry" of the DND ESCP-P requirements.

• Obtaining industry input "on the feasibility, deficiencies and proposed improvements with respect to potential options to meet the requirement needs."

• "Align this requirement" with the industry capabilities "as applicable," whatever that means.

• Seek industry input on "potential economic leveraging opportunities."

• Obtain rough order of magnitude (ROM) costing estimates.

Given that the idea of two satellites in eccentric orbits able to cover the Canadian north to provide a variety of useful applications has been kicking around Ottawa, DND and the Canadian Space Agency since at least 2008, when the idea was known as the polar communications and weather (PCW) constellation, it seems obvious that most of the answers to the above listed questions are already available.

It should be noted that even Canadian Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan (shown here, walking past an honour guard at US Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, where he attended a meeting of defense ministers on July 2nd, 2017) concedes that the Canadian military is underfunded. As outlined in the October 26th, 2017 Global News post, "Liberal government’s defence plan threatened by shortage of procurement staff," Senior officials at the Defence Department believe that "they will be challenged to make good on the Trudeau government’s promise to buy billions of dollars in new military equipment in the coming years." Photo c/o Saul Loeb/ AFP/Getty.

Therefore, it cannot help but be noted that the ESCP-P program seems to have been intentionally delayed by the government. This is likely a cost cutting measure, although government representatives at one point also suggested that there simply isn't enough Federal procurement staff available to facilitate the process and fill out the necessary paperwork.

Yeah, right...

Whatever the real reason for the delay, current estimates to complete the ESCP-P program start far north of the estimated $1.5Bln CDN the Federal government is willing to concede.

All of which is bad news for the Canadian and international space companies who've been waiting years for this project.

They'll be forced to pretend that everything remains on-track for an eventual purchase, even as they (and their supply chains) slowly twist in the wind. 

Another reminder that cost might indeed be a constraint on the ESCP-P program (then called simply ESCP). As outlined in the March 14th, 2017 Ottawa Citizen post, "Canada talking to U.S., Norway and Denmark about footing bill for new Arctic military satellite," the contract was then expected to be "awarded in 2020 for the Enhanced Satellite Communication Project. The spacecraft would be launched around 2024." Graphic c/o Ottawa Citizen.

Perhaps ESCP-P will be revisited should the consultation process develop the political consensus needed to move forward or money becomes available. Perhaps the program will merge into a commercial proposal and/or become part of the upcoming Telesat constellation.

Perhaps the government will hire more procurement officers to deal with the backlog and/or continue to deal with Arctic military communication requirements the same way it always has, with a little help from the Americans.

Or perhaps ESCP-P will just fade away, to be revived by the next government as a new proposal under a new name. Like last time.

Chuck Black.

___________________________________________________________

Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog.

Engineering: Kardashev Style

          By Brian Orlotti

A new series of YouTube videos portraying a well-rendered vision of future human space exploration is making impressive viewer numbers.

Graphic c/o Fraser Cain.

As outlined the June 8th, 2017 Fraser Cain video "Construction Tips from a Type 2 Engineer - Part 1: Collaboration with Isaac Arthur," and its same day sequel, "Tips from Kardashev 2 Engineers, part 2," the series tells a story, from the perspective of future engineers, of humanity’s transformation into a solar system-spanning civilization.

In Part 1,  ‘practical’ construction tips are discussed as well as key questions such as ‘How did we extract energy and resources from the Moon, planets and even gas giants of the Solar System?’ as well as ‘How did we shift around and dismantle the worlds to provide the raw resources of our civilization?’

Part 2 examines the potential mega-engineering projects civilizations may tackle on their way to achieving Kardashev Type 2 status, such as artificial magnetospheres, mining and disassembling comets, asteroids, and even entire planets, as well as harvesting the Sun itself.

The videos are a collaboration between futurist Issac Arthur and Fraser Cain, publisher of space and astronomy news site Universe Today. The two videos were funded via Patreon. Arthur and Cain asked the Patreon community to brainstorm ideas, with Patreon member Gannon Huiting’s idea being chosen for their collaboration.

The video’s striking visuals were created by artists Jakub Grygier, Kevin Gill and Sergio Botero, comprising both custom imagery and animations as well as NASA photos. Audio and music included "We Roam the Stars" by Lombus, "Dark Future - Staring Through pt 1" by AJ Prasad and "A Memory of Earth" by Markus Junnikkala.

According to the video’s narrative, Humanity’s ability to settle the Solar System was spurred by the harvesting of helium 3 from the Moon. This isotope of helium, rare on Earth but more abundant on the Moon, changed everything by enabling the construction of fusion reactors which release no neutrons, enabling them to be used on bases or starships with minimal shielding.

Eventually, lunar helium-3 was depleted but other sources across the Solar System were tapped, like the regolith (dirt) of Mercury, various moons and asteroids and the atmospheres of the gas giant planets (i.e Uranus and Neptune).

One of the videos’ main points was that asteroids and small moons, rather than planets with deep gravity wells, provide an ideal source of raw materials for space construction. These asteroids also enabled humanity to kickstart space-based infrastructure (solar arrays, asteroid habitats) by providing an income stream from vast deposits of precious metals. In addition, these asteroids and moons often contained water in the form of ice, vital to creating life-sustaining habitats in space, as well as fuel for spaceships.

The video’s narrative goes on to say that while these sources offer plentiful supplies for early infrastructure efforts but not enough for major projects like terraforming Mars or creating many artificial habitats. The video then delves mining comets and large moons in the outer solar system. Later the narrative moves into more esoteric realms such as moving planets and building Dyson swarms.

Examining such future scenarios as shown in these videos may appear fanciful and frivolous to some. However, as new technologies and economics that are now opening the space frontier enable more possibilities, such speculation will help humanity decide on where to direct its efforts as well as what shape its future form will take.

Brian Orlotti.

  ______________________________________________________________

Brian Orlotti is a regular contributor to the Commercial Space blog.

More on Canada's "Next Top Astronauts," Canada's "Failure To Scale" & Is Our Space Agency "Muzzling" its Contractors?

          By Henry Stewart

There's nothing new under the sun and pretty much everything happening today is understandable when placed in the context of what's happened in the past. That's why this blog is currently running two historical series, by acknowledged Canadian experts, on "A History of the Canadian Space Program - Policies & Lessons Learned Coping with Modest Budgets," and "150 Years of Canadian Aerospace History."

Given that. and for the week of April 24th, 2017, here are a few of the stories we're currently tracking for the Commercial Space blog:

At least they're mostly not "striking a pose" or wearing heels. We're down to the "final seventeen," an important enough milestone to splurge on brown polo's and organize a group shot with the innovation minister (on the left, with his back facing the camera). A final decision on the two Canadian astronaut openings is expected to be announced sometime this summer. To view the complete April 24th, 2017 press conference, please click on the graphic above. Screenshot c/o CSA.

• As the hot PR winds continue to blow, Federal minister of innovation Navdeep Bains has announced the "final seventeen" candidates completing for the two open slots in the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) astronaut corps. 

As outlined in the April 24th, 2017 Global News post, "Final candidates unveiled as Canada searches for 2 new astronauts," the finalists now include "twelve men and five women, roughly reflecting the ratio of men to women who applied to the program." A complete listing of the remaining seventeen candidates are available online on the CSA "Who are the astronaut candidates?," webpage.

The competition, being run by the CSA, began last year with over 3,700 applications received. 

That field was initially reduced (with much fanfare) to seventy-two, and then reduced again earlier this year to thirty-two candidates. The expectation is that the final two successful applicants will be chosen later on in the year, again with much fanfare.

As part of the presentation surrounding the latest unveiling, Minister Bains noted the $379Mln CDN the Federal government allocated to International Space Station (ISS) activities in 2016 (which covers costs through 2024 and was originally announced by the previous government), the $80Mln CDN the Federal government allocated to new space projects in 2017 and the ongoing activities related to the space working group, which began meeting just two weeks ago to assess potential, future space projects.

As outlined in the 2016-17 Report on Plans and Priorities, published yearly by the CSA, the current CSA base budget (the amount of money required to keep CSA employees on staff and CSA buildings open and functioning even without any activities, exploration or science being undertaken) is $300Mln CDN annually.

The cover page of the April 2017 Impact Brief on "Canadian Tech Tortoises; Is a lack of spending on marketing and sales delaying fundraising?" Graphic c/o Impact Centre.

• Are Canadian start-ups unable to scale into large corporations? A recent study from The Impact Centre at the University of Toronto seems to think so and might have even suggested a reason why.

As outlined in an April 24th, 2017 e-mail from Charles Plant, a senior fellow with the Impact Centre, "anecdotal evidence suggests that many Canadian technology companies wait until their products are launched before spending funds on crucial functions such as marketing and sales and that this practice is delaying growth and success in fundraising."

The key component missing from Canadian start-ups seems to be that "Canadian firms have significantly fewer employees in marketing and sales functions than US firms do," at least according to Plant.

Plant and his colleagues also found that, "even among the best funded firms, Canadian technology firms have 25% fewer marketing and sales employees than US based Unicorns do. This lack of emphasis on marketing and sales may be delaying and impeding rapid growth and our companies' ability to get funding to scale to world-class status."

The complete April 2017 report, under the title "Canadian Tech Tortoises; Is a lack of spending on marketing and sales delaying fundraising?" is available online at http://www.impactcentre.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/170421-Tech-Tortoises.pdf.  

A bipartisan reminder, courtesy of the April 30th, 2012 Ottawa Citizen Post, "Agency's Long-term plan years overdue," that the Canadian government space program has been drifting for decades, even as our private space sector activities took off. But at least we've been allowed to publicly assess our flaws, right? Well... Maybe not. Graphic c/o PressReader.

• Has the CSA "muzzled" its contractors? The latest CSA request for proposal (RFP), posted on the Federal government Buy and Sell procurement website, suggests that it has.

As outlined on the April 24th, Buy and Sell posting, "Radio-Frequency (RF) Communication Contribution Concept Study (9F050-16-0974)," the CSA has issued an RFP for a single contract, "for an all-inclusive budget not to exceed $400,000.00 CDN (excluding any applicable taxes)" covering "potential solution for an RF communications contribution." 

The attachment to the solicitation document (CSA-DSTRF-SOW-0001) under the title, "Post-ISS Human Spaceflight Contributions – Deep Space Telecommunications (DST) RF Concept Study," goes into a little more detail on the nature of the work the CSA is contracting. 

As outlined in the document, the RFP is to help define concepts for "collaborative Beyond Low Earth Orbit (BLEO) Missions" as defined in the NASA global exploration road map, which is being developed by space agencies participating in the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG). 

Not that there's anything wrong with that. It's good that our space agency is co-operating with others to generate useful plans for activities after the ISS winds down.

The main page of the ISECG website, a forum set up by 14 space agencies (including Canada's CSA) to "advance the Global Exploration Strategy through coordination of their mutual efforts in space exploration." Screenshot c/o ISECG.

But there sure seems to be some onerous restrictions on how CSA subcontractors can go about discussing their contributions to this program. 

As outlined on page twenty three of the main solicitation document under the title Communications Activity Coordination Process:

The contractor must coordinate with the CSA’s Directorate of Communications and Public Affairs all Communication Activities pertaining to the present contract. To this end, the contractor must:

• As soon as the Contractor intends to organize a Communication Activity, send a Notice to the CSA’s Directorate of Communications and Public Affairs. The Communications Notice must include a complete description of the proposed Communication Activity. The Notice must be in writing in accordance with the clause Notice included in the general conditions applicable to the contract. The Communications Notice must include a copy or example of the proposed Communication Activity. 

• The contractor must provide to the CSA any and all additional document in any appropriate format, example or information that the CSA deems necessary, at its entire discretion to correctly and efficiently coordinate the proposed Communication Activity. The Contractor agrees to only proceed with the proposed Communication Activity after receiving a written confirmation of coordination of the Communication Activity from the CSA’s Directorate of Communications and Public Affairs.

• The Contractor must receive beforehand the authorization, approval and written confirmation from the CSA’s Directorate of Communications and Public Affairs before organizing, proceeding or hosting a communication activity. 

These clauses makes it essentially impossible for CSA subcontractors to talk to the public without either the formal approval of the CSA Directorate of Communications, unless they are willing to run the risk of becoming non-compliant with their CSA contract.

This is similar to the actions of the previous Stephen Harper conservative government as outlined in the November 6th, 2015 Huffington Post report, "Liberals Unmuzzle Canadian Scientists, Promise They Can Now 'Speak Freely.'"

It's also an activity the current Justin Trudeau Liberal government had insisted was done away with when they took office in 2015. 

Newly minted innovation minister Navdeep Bains at a press conference on Parliament Hill on November 6th, 2015 where he fulfilled a Liberal party campaign promise to allow government scientists and experts to comment on their work to the media and the public. Hopefully, he'll also do the same for our space agency. Photo c/o Adrian Wyld/CP.

Oddly enough, similar clauses are also included in other recent CSA documents posted on Buy and Sell, such as the April 19th, 2017 "Development of enabling space technologies (9F063-160953/A)" notice of proposed procurement (NPP) and the April 5th, 2017 "Dextre Deployable Vision System (DDVS) – Phases B/C and D (9F052-160487/A)" NPP. 

This blog has requested clarification on those contract clauses and the reasons for their inclusion in CSA documents and will update this post as new information becomes available. 

For more, check out our upcoming stories in the Commercial Space blog.

_______________________________________________________________________

Henry Stewart is the pseudonym of a Toronto based aerospace writer.

2016: The Year in Space for Canada

          By Chuck Black

Much like our retired snowbirds, Canada's space sector spent large portions of the year fantasizing about better times while attempting to relocate to balmier climes and taking photos of family get-togethers.

Unfortunately, while we were busy enjoying those fantasies, any government incentives to help us actually do something have been drying up amid Federal promises to "form committees" which "assess the situation."

But back in the real world, historians have at least uncovered intermittent reminders of our once impressive past accomplishments, and small Canadian businesses with private funding led the way towards a potential future. Maybe it will be enough.

With that in mind, here are some of the high and low points for the Canadian space sector in 2016.

Canadian astronaut Jeremy Hansen (left) seems to be encouraging the cautious, but curious Minister Bains to pull his finger during a presentation at CSA headquarters in St-Hubert, Que. As outlined in the January 7th, 2016 Canadian Press post, "Canada awards contract to build vision system for space station," both were on hand to announce "that a $1.7-million design contract has been awarded to an Ottawa firm to develop the monitoring system made up of lasers and cutting-edge cameras." Photo c/o  Paul Chaisson/ Canadian Press.

The year began on a high note, with the announcement by Navdeep Bains, the newly minted Federal Minister of Innovation, Science and Economic Development (ISED) that the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) had allocated $1.7Mln CDN to Kanata, Ontario based Neptec Design Group for the creation of a new damage detection system for close-up surface inspection on the outside of the International Space Station (ISS).

Unfortunately, as outlined in the January 10th, 2016 post, "Innovation Minister's Latest Announcement a Rehash of November 2015 Announcement," that announcement had been made at least once before, in November 2015, and the origins of the contract go back even further, to the previous Stephen Harper conservative government.

Which probably didn't assist the new liberal government's intent to create the impression that they care about science and space.

According to Julie Simard, the CSA's acting manager for strategic communications, the initial November 25th, 2015 announcement that Neptec was awarded the contract was not intended to be an "announcement," but was intended instead to be a "routine administrative procedure," which no one was expected to notice.

Out with the old and in with the new. A  screen-shot  of COM DEV's website on February 8th, 2016 beside a second screen-shot of the same website taken on December 9th, 2016. Screen-shots c/o Honeywell COM DEV. 

In February common shares of Cambridge, Ontario based COM DEV International were de-listed from the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) as the iconic Canadian company finished up its final task of becoming a subsidiary of New Jersey based Honeywell International. 

To commemorate, this blog commissioned a five part series covering the short history of COM DEV, beginning with the February 8th, 2016 post on "Part 1: John Hansen, Samuel Singer and Michael Valentine O'Donovan," 

Not all of our fellow journalists were as charitable.

Some even pointed fingers at the newly installed Justin Trudeau government, which decided not to review the sale, even though it may have been legally obligated to do so. For an example of this viewpoint, check out the February 29th, 2016 Space News post, "Why didn’t Canada put up a fight for Com Dev?"

In the final analysis, it's worth noting that the COM DEV sale was, as quoted from our short history of COM DEV cited above, "not not the only recent sale of an iconic and militarily significant Canadian company to the US" nor was it the only Canadian company "built on the back of no small amount of government largesse."

exactEarth Ltd. (XCT) CEO Peter Mabson (center, at the podium) joined Rob Peterman, the director of global business development for the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and quite a number of others, to open the market on February 11th, 2016. The company was first listed on the TSX only two days earlier, on February 9th. Photo c/o CNW Group/TMX Group Limited.

As outlined in the November 7th, 2015 post, "Should the proposed COM DEV sale to US based Honeywell trigger the Investment Canada Act?," the COM DEV sale was not, initially at least, considered an unmitigated disaster for Canada. 

COM DEV spun out its exactEarth subsidiary into a separate, Canadian owned public company, in order to keep the total value of the sale under the amount that triggers an automatic Federal government review under the Investment Canada Act (ICA). The spin-off also gave Canada another hi-tech space-focused company to root for.

But almost immediately, and as outlined in the February 14th, 2016 post, "Newborn exactEarth Faces its First Battle for the Worm," the new firm found itself in direct competition with New Jersey based Orbcomm for the renewal of a "key Canadian satellite-AIS contract."

That contract was originally worth $19Mln CDN when last won by exactEarth, back when it was a subsidiary of COM DEV. However, the dollar amount ended up shrinking substantially by the time the new contract was finally awarded.

As outlined in the May 7th, 2016 post, "Orbcomm, Skywave, exactEarth, CSA Rovers, High School Robotics, MDA, Emerson, Magellan, Honeywell & UrtheCast," the new contract was now only worth $116,000 CDN in total. For exactEarth, this represented an approximately $600,000 CDN reduction in revenue for each month the contract was in force, which was a big hit to take given that the firm only booked $26.6Mln CDN in total revenue for the twelve month period ending October 31st, 2015. 

At this rate, exactEarth will never get the chance to become one of those iconic space companies "built on the back of no small amount of government largesse," like its COM DEV parent.

While Federal ministers were attempting to avoid providing any new funding for space, they seemed to have no problem being associated with the photo opportunities which naturally flow from a space program. Top Left: CSA astronaut David Saint-Jacques, CSA president Sylvain Laporte and Ontario Drive and Gear (ODG) space and robotics manager Peter Visscher discuss Canada's newest (and, so far at least, missionless) rovers with Innovation Minister Bains at CSA headquarters on May 5th, 2016. Top Right: Innovation Minister Bains at the Canadian Aviation and Space Museum (CASM) with astronaut David Saint-Jacques and surrounded by students from Marc Garneau Elementary School plus the So-What Youth for Science Program on May 16th, 2016, making the announcement that Saint-Jacques would visit the ISS in 2018. Bottom Left: Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan, announcing a $48.5Mln CDN upgrade of the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) Polar Epsilon 2 program on June 17th, 2016. As outlined in the July 17th, 2016 post, "That 2013 "Fixed Pricing" Contract for RCM Might Not be Entirely Fixed," the Polar Epsilon project was an add-on to the original RADARSAT Constellation mission (RCM), which also originated with the previous government. Bottom Right: Minister Bains at CASM again, this time on June 17th, 2016, when he announced an open call for two new Canadian astronauts. Photo's c/o CSA, Adrian Wyld/ Canadian Press & MDA.

By March, it was becoming apparent that many of the hopes placed in the palms of the new liberal government by Canadian space advocates might just possibly be misplaced.

As outlined in the March 13th, 2016 post, "Waiting for Garneau," ex-astronaut and veteran liberal MP Marc Garneau, was too busy with the transport portfolio even to begin to focus on the space industry.

And, as outlined in the March 27th, 2016 post, "No Puppies Falling from the Heavens With Space Funding in this Federal Budget," the March 2016 Federal budget didn't help much either. 

It instead predicted large deficits over the next five years (beginning with $29.4Bln CDN in the first year), which would be used to finance tax-free monthly child benefits, more money for First Nations, infrastructure spending and extended employment insurance benefits to hard-hit regions.

But not space...

And the "big announcement," that the government has committed up to $379Mln CDN over eight years (beginning in 2017), to maintain Canada's commitment to its International Space Station (ISS) partners, is something the government always knew it had to do in order to preserve slots for Canadian astronauts David Saint-Jacques and Jeremy Hansen to travel to the ISS in 2019 and 2021.

However, those travel commitments were made well before the current government took office, much like that award to Neptec in January 2016, which was discussed earlier in this post.

Science minister Duncan at the at the 8th Canadian Science Policy Conference (CSPC2016) in Ottawa on November 10th, 2016. As outlined in the November 10th, 2016 transcript of her speech under the title, "Minister Duncan Reflections: One Year as Minister of Science," much work has occurred over the past year "to rebuild the government’s respect for and trust in our scientists," but much remained to be done. Photo c/o Chuck Black.

By June, as outlined in the June 13th, 2016 post, "Government Announces Comprehensive Review of Canadian Science," the Federal government felt uncomfortable enough with its performance to announce a "comprehensive review" of just about all Federal funding for science and academics as part of "Canada's Innovation Agenda."

It included the activities of the National Research Council (NRC), the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC), the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC), and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR), as well as programs like the Canada Foundation for Innovation (CFI), the various Canada Research Chairs, Genome Canada and others.

The committee was originally expected to present to Federal Science Minister Kirsty Duncan before the end of the year. As of December 19th, it hasn't. Twelve presenting days left till the end of the year!

Later in the year, as outlined in the October 18th, 2016 post, "A Quick Update to 'Iconic Macdonald Dettwiler is now SSL MDA Holdings, a US Based Company'," there was a second government announcement that "the Government of Canada is seeking candidates for a Space Advisory Board that is inclusive, forward-thinking and positioned to drive innovation and science in Canada, and that will help identify future opportunities for economic growth that will benefit all Canadians."

Even more recently, as announced in the December 12th, 2016 post, "exactEarth, Lybid-1, the CSA (which Needs more Committees) and the Upcoming 2017 Earth Observation Summit," the CSA organized three more committees tasked with providing "independent advice to the CSA on Space Utilization science priorities and (to) provide feedback on CSA programs and initiatives."

We're hopeful that, in 2017, at least one of those committees will issue some sort of report, announcing something. Frankly, almost any announcement which doesn't involve forming another committee would be an improvement over 2016.

CSA international partnerships with other space agencies also seem to have been less successful in 2016 than in the past.

For example, as outlined in the March 28th, 2016 post, "Japanese Hitomi (ASTRO-H) Satellite Suffers Major Malfunction," noted the failure of the The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Hitomi (ASTRO-H) X-ray astronomy satellite, which was launched on February 17th, 2016.

Hitomi carried the Canadian built Astro-H Metrology System (CAMS), a laser alignment system used to measure the distortions in the extendable optical platform which the Hitomi satellite uses for image correction. The CAMS system was built by the Ottawa based Neptec Design Group, in consultation with Canadian researchers.

Also of note was the October 2016 crash of the Schiaparelli Entry, Descent and Landing Demonstrator Module (EDM), a joint mission of the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Russian space agency Roscosmos, with Canadian participation.

As outlined in the October 24th, 2016 post, "Schiaparelli Goes Splat!," the lander, the first of the two part exobiology on Mars (ExoMars) astrobiology project designed to search for evidence of Martian life, ceased communicating with ESA mission control approximately one minute before its planned touchdown on October 19th.

It wasn't an altogether disastrous year for the CSA.  Canada's Maritime Monitoring and Messaging Microsatellite (M3MSat) was launched successfully by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), from Sriharikota, India, along with another Canadian satellite owned by Montreal based GHGSat Inc. on June 21st, 2016. As outlined in the June 22nd, 2016 CSA press release, "Canada's M3MSat Successful Launch - Advancing Canada's capabilities to monitor maritime traffic from space," the M3MSat mission "will improve ship detection and marine traffic management in Canadian waters." Photo c/o You-Tube.

In April, this blog focused on the first of two examples of well funded CSA studies which failed to turn into successful programs.

As outlined in the April 22nd, 2016 post, "2009 Canadian Space Agency Report on Indigenous Canadian Launcher said "Yes!" But CSA Didn't Move Forward," the CSA had the option to build and support a small domestic launcher, but chose not to.

And, as outlined in the September 26th, 2016 post, "The REAL Reason Why Canada Won't Be Participating in the NASA Resolve Mission Anytime Soon, Probably!," the CSA really, really wanted to contribute a rover to the NASA Resolve mission, but seems to have messed that up as well.

Once the headquarters of Canada's preeminent space company, MDA HQ in Richmond, BC is now just another regional office for a Canadian subsidiary of a giant US multinational. Photo c/o T-Net.

One Canadian company which seemingly understood better than the rest the need to "get the hell out of Dodge," was Burnaby, BC based MacDonald Dettwiler (MDA).

As outlined in the October 7th, 2016 post, "Iconic MacDonald Dettwiler is Now SSL MDA Holdings, a US Based Company with a Canadian Subsidiary," only "eight years after the Federal government rejected its sale to US based Alliant Techsystems (ATK) because it was not of "net benefit" to the country, BC based Macdonald Dettwiler (MDA) has quietly turned into a Delaware holding company, changed its name, added several new US based board members and moved its corporate headquarters to San Francisco."

Best of all;

... those actions seem to have been undertaken without triggering a formal review under the Investment Canada Act (ICA), the Canadian Federal law governing large, foreign direct investment in Canada, which was used as the legal basis for rejecting the 2008 sale (of MDA to ATK, as outlined in the April 10th, 2008 CBC post, "Federal government blocks sale of MDA space division")

That perception was reflected in both the October 17th, 2016 National Post article "U.S. firm stages ‘stealth takeover’ of Canada’s largest space tech company," and the October 18th, 2016 National Post follow-up article, "EDC financing satellite construction in California because of ‘direct benefit’ to Canada."

Maybe ICA reviews are like the Star Trek prime directive, which seems notable only for being ignored.

Of course, MDA begged to differ. As outlined in the December 16th, 2016 post, "MDA says No Sale of Canadarm Technology to the US Government in NASA RESTORE-L, DARPA RSGS or "Any Other" Project," it claimed, at least as outlined by MDA communications manager Wendy Keyzer, to have never left the country or sold any Canadian technology to the US.

At this point, the real resolution to this difference of opinion appears destined for our "top stories of 2017" coverage.

But perhaps the most important space story of 2016 is how the activities of the space sector are being driven by the private sector, and not the public sector.

As outlined in both the October 3rd, 2016 post, "Sixteen Organizations Currently Developing Small-Sat Launchers," and its follow-up October 12th, 2016 post, "Sixteen More Organizations Currently Developing Small-Sat Launchers," almost three dozen privately funded rocket companies are currently in operation.

And, as outlined in the November 20th, 2016 post, "SpaceX, Telesat & Kepler Just Three of the Dozen Satellite Constellations Currently on the FCC Table," more satellites are expected to launch into orbit over the next few years than have been launched since our current space age began in 1958. 

Most of those new satellites will be privately funded.

Toronto based Kepler Communications, as last profiled in the August 16th, 2016 post, "Kepler Communications Raises $5Mln in Venture Funding," is certainly one of the rising stars of the Canadian space industry, but there are others such as Montreal, PQ based GHGSat which, as outlined in the December 9th, 2016 GHGSat press release, "Claire Makes 500th Measurement!," is slowly turning its small emissions tracking satellite into a major revenue stream.

And maybe that's the real future of Canada's space industry, as private sector companies competing for market share and profits rather than as supplicants of a government funded program with no defined goal.

Author Robert Godwin with Colleen Lapp at the Canadian Aeronautics and Space Institute (CASI) Toronto branch meeting at the University of Toronto Institute of Aerospace Studies (UTIAS) on November 24th, 2016. Godwin was in town to speak on the topic of "The Empire Strikes Out - The Commonwealth Space Program," and to promote his latest books. According to Godwin, Phil Lapp "embodied Canadian Space achievement" and even "put the space in CASI." Among other things, Lapp helped to found the Canadian Astronautical Society (CAS) in 1957, and then helped it merge with the Canadian Aeronautical Institute (CAI) to become the Canadian Aeronautics and Space Institute (CASI) in 1962. Photo c/o Chuck Black. Graphic c/o CG Publishing.

It's also noteworthy that two books focused on Canadian aerospace and space pioneers were published this year.

This blog covered those books in the November 27th, 2016 post, "Apogee Publishes New Book on 'The Father of Canadian Astronautics'," and the September 12th, 2016 post on "William Leitch: Presbyterian Scientist & the Concept of Rocket Spaceflight 1854-64."

So what's going to happen next year in space for Canada? Find out, when the Commercial Space blog returns with all new stories beginning January 3rd, 2017.

Chuck Black.

___________________________________________________________

Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog.