Canadian Space Agency Role "Evolving," But Maxar Technologies Has a New $375Mln US Contract for the Lunar Gateway

          By Chuck Black

NASA has awarded Westminster CO based Maxar Technologies, in conjunction with Kent WA based Blue Origin and Cambridge MA based Draper, a "firm-fixed priced" contract worth up to $375Mln US ($505Mln CDN) to develop the lead element of NASA's planned Lunar Gateway, a component of the new Artemis plan to return US astronauts to the Moon by 2024.

Known as the power and propulsion element (PPE), the module is currently expected to launch in late 2022. The procurement process will be "non-traditional" which, as outlined in the May 20th, 2019 post, "NASA Begins Issuing "Non-Traditional" Procurement Contracts for Human Rated Lunar Landers," is designed to keep costs down, lower oversight requirements and speed up implementation.

The announcement was made by NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine at the Florida Institute of Technology on May 23rd, 2019.

The new Maxar contract comes only one day after Canadian Space Agency (CSA) president Sylvain Laporte went to Washington to meet with Bridenstine and discuss speeding up the implementation schedule for Canada's contribution to the Lunar Gateway.

Maxar is also the prime contractor for the new "3rd generation" Canadarm, Canada's primary contribution to the Lunar Gateway. The new Canadarm is currently scheduled to be installed on the Lunar Gateway in 2027, well after the new Maxar PPE is operational and in-orbit.

This also makes the new Maxar PPE a higher operational priority for the program than any new Canadarm.

As outlined in the May 23rd, 2019 NASA press release, "NASA Awards Artemis Contract for Lunar Gateway Power, Propulsion," the new Maxar contract will begin:

... with a 12-month base period of performance... followed by a 26-month option, a 14-month option and two 12-month options. 

Spacecraft design will be completed during the base period, after which the exercise of options will provide for the development, launch, and in-space flight demonstration. The flight demonstration will last as long as one year, during which the spacecraft will be fully owned and operated by Maxar. 

Following a successful demonstration, NASA will have the option to acquire the spacecraft for use as the first element of the Gateway. NASA is targeting launch of the power and propulsion element on a commercial rocket in late 2022. 

Maxar has based the PPE on its Palo Alto CA based SSL owned 1300-class satellite platform. As outlined in the May 23rd, 2019 Maxar press release, "Maxar Selected to Build, Fly First Element of NASA’s Lunar Gateway," the PPE will also include an "affordable and innovative" electric-propulsion-enabled system, which "will provide power, maneuvering, attitude control, communications systems and initial docking capabilities."

NASA's team on the left (with NASA Administrator Bridenstine second from the left) discusses politics and procurement with Canada's team on the right (with CSA President Laporte, the second from the right) in Washington on May 22nd, 2019. As outlined in the May 22nd, 2019 Space News post, "Canada mulls accelerated schedule to keep pace with NASA’s 2024 moon goal," noted that, while "NASA’s previous plans called for a return to the moon by 2028. Laporte described Canada’s role in the Gateway as “evolving” in light of the new 2024 target." Bridenstine and others within NASA have expressed an openness to foreign contractors working on the Maxar PPE, although no confirmed non-US subcontractors have so-far been announced. Photo c/o @JimBridenstine.

The press release also quoted Maxar CEO Dan Jablonsky, who stated:

Maxar Space Solutions is proud to play a critical role in enabling American astronauts to build a sustainable presence on the Moon. Our power and propulsion element partnership enables NASA to leverage Maxar’s commercial capabilities to cost-effectively expedite plans for sustainable exploration of the Moon, while also providing significant benefits to American industry.

Time to change socks? Photo c/o Anonymous.

But it likely won't provide all that many benefits to Canada although it will be configured to accept that new Canadarm everyone expects to be installed in 2027.

Earlier this year and as outlined in the February 28th, 2019 post, "Canada Becomes the First Nation to Formally Commit to the NASA Lunar Gateway Plan," Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada would be allocating $2.05Bln CDN over the next twenty-four years to build a new, 3rd generation Canadarm, to contribute to the NASA program.

Trudeau even made it the core of "Canada’s new, ambitious space strategy."

Then US President Donald Trump changed the plan. 

Canadian technology was no longer on the "critical path," at least until after the Americans return to the Moon in 2024.

That's not to say that Canada's contribution is no longer important. But it is a reminder that Canada's domestic space program is no longer totally in the hands of Canada's national space agency.

In a May 23rd, 2019 e-mail exchange with this blog, CSA media relations chief Marie-André Malouin noted that:

President Laporte and Administrator Bridenstine held one of their regular meetings on Washington on May 22. Their brief discussion focused on the lunar program, on the need for Canadian robotics on Gateway and on future collaborations. 

The positive outcome of their discussion is reflected in Jim Bridenstine's comments about Canada's partnership earlier today. We continue to work closely with NASA on the exciting lunar exploration campaign. This is just the beginning.

It is indeed the beginning of something.

Best guess is that, if you're a Canadian company looking to participate in the exploration of the Moon and other heavenly bodies, you might want to skip out on the courtesy call to CSA headquarters in Longueuil PQ and instead focus on making a direct connection with Maxar executives in Westminster CO.

After what happened today, the Colorado executives certainly seem to have more "pull." 

Chuck Black.

___________________________________________________________

Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog. 

NASA's Leaked Artemis Lunar Exploration Plan Includes 37 Launches, 5 Crewed Landings and a Lunar Outpost

          By Chuck Black

Technology focused website Ars Technica claims to have obtained an internal NASA plan for the next 37 rocket launches to the Moon under the proposed Artemis program. The proposal includes the landing of the first of five human astronaut crews on the Moon in 2024 and culminates with the establishment a crewed base at the Lunar South Pole in 2028.

NASA's "notional" plan for a human return to the Moon by 2024 and the creation of a lunar outpost by 2028. Graphic c/o ArsTechnica.

As outlined in the May 20th, 2019 Ars Technica post, "NASA’s full Artemis plan revealed: 37 launches and a lunar outpost," the plan began circulating within NASA last week.

According to the post:

A graphic (above), provides information about each of the major launches needed to construct a small Lunar Gateway, stage elements of a lunar lander there, fly crews to the Moon and back, and conduct refueling missions. 

This decade-long plan, which entails 37 launches of private and NASA rockets, as well as a mix of robotic and human landers, culminates with a "Lunar Surface Asset Deployment" in 2028, likely the beginning of a surface outpost for long-duration crew stays. 

Developed by the agency's senior human spaceflight manager, Bill Gerstenmaier, this plan is everything (US VP Mike) Pence asked for—an urgent human return, a Moon base, a mix of existing and new contractors.

But the plan is currently missing two important components. According to the post:

It's not clear what role there would be on these charts for international partners, as nearly all of the vehicles could—and likely would—come from NASA or US based companies.  

Also missing is a discussion of the estimated total budget needed to fund the program.

As outlined in the May 20th, 2019 post, "NASA Begins Issuing "Non-Traditional" Procurement Contracts for Human Rated Lunar Landers," much of the total cost will end up being dependent on the type of procurement methodologies the US uses to purchase the required vehicles and technologies.

But new money might not be easy to come by.

As outlined in the May 20th, 2019 Parabolic Arc post, "House Subcommittee Boosts NASA Budget, Ignores Supplemental Request," the US House of Representatives Commerce, Justice and Science Subcommittee has just approved a fiscal year 2020 NASA budget increase of $820Mln US ($1.1Bln CDN) over FY 2019.

The increase is far lower than the $1.6Bln US ($2.15Bln CDN) supplemental budget request from the Trump Administration that NASA says is required to land astronauts on the Lunar South Pole in 2024.

But it's also an initial negotiating position from only one of the many committees with input into the final deal. Over the next few months, we'll see if the US government can build out a useful consensus.

Chuck Black.

___________________________________________________________

Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog. 

NASA Begins Issuing "Non-Traditional" Procurement Contracts for Human Rated Lunar Landers

          By Henry Stewart

NASA has begun issuing contracts to US based companies to develop human rated lunar landers as part of US President Donald Trump's plan to return American astronauts to the Moon by 2024.

In an effort to keep costs down and speed up program roll-out, the contracts will be based around "public/private partnership" procurement methodologies and not the "cost-plus" methodologies traditionally favored by NASA and other national space agencies, including Canada's.

As outlined in the May 16th, 2019 NASA press release, "NASA Taps 11 American Companies to Advance Human Lunar Landers," the new contracts were issued last week to eleven companies for preliminary design studies and the development of prototypes that "reduce schedule risk for the descent, transfer, and refueling elements of a potential human landing system."

The awards total $45.5Mln US ($61Mln CDN) and "will help put American astronauts - the first woman and next man - on the Moon's south pole by 2024 and establish sustainable missions by 2028," according to the press release:

To accelerate our return to the Moon, we are challenging our traditional ways of doing business. We will streamline everything from procurement to partnerships to hardware development and even operations," said Marshall Smith, director for human lunar exploration programs at NASA Headquarters. 

"Our team is excited to get back to the Moon quickly as possible, and our public/private partnerships to study human landing systems are an important step in that process."

The awards were made under the NASA Next Space Technologies for Exploration Partnerships (NextSTEP) program. The successful companies are required to contribute at least 20% of the total project cost of the contract.

To expedite the work, NASA will be invoking what they describe as "undefinitized" contract actions, which allow the agency to authorize partners to start on components of a larger project, while negotiations for the undefined project components continue in parallel.

The eleven companies receiving contracts are from eight states located across the US. They include:

• Canoga Park CA based Aerojet Rocketdyne -  Awarded one contract for a transfer vehicle study.

• Kent WA based Blue Origin - Awarded three contracts covering one descent element study, one transfer vehicle study and one transfer vehicle prototype.

• Houston TX based Boeing - Awarded seven contracts covering one descent element study, two descent element prototypes, one transfer vehicle study, one transfer vehicle prototype, one refueling element study and one refueling element prototype.

• Huntsville AL based Dynetics -  Awarded six contracts covering one descent element study and five descent element prototypes.

• Littleton CO based Lockheed Martin - Awarded seven contracts covering one descent element study, four descent element prototypes, one transfer vehicle study and one refueling element study.

• Mojave CA based Masten Space Systems - Awarded one contract for a descent element prototype.

• Dulles VA based Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems -  Awarded seven contracts covering one descent element study, four descent element prototypes, one refueling element study and one refueling element prototype.

• Edison NJ based ORBITBeyond - Awarded two contracts covering two refueling element prototypes.

• Louisville CO and Madison WI based Sierra Nevada Corporation - Awarded five contracts covering one descent element study, one descent element prototype, one transfer vehicle study, one transfer vehicle prototype and one refueling element study.

• Hawthorne CA based SpaceX - Awarded one contract covering one descent element study. 

• Palo Alto CA based SSL - Awarded two contracts covering one refueling element study and one refueling element prototype.

In April 2019, NASA notified US industry of its intention to partner with US based companies to develop an integrated lander.

The formal solicitation is expected to be issued sometime this summer, It's expected to provide a general overview of the requirements for a 2024 human landing, "and leave it to US industry to propose innovative concepts, hardware development and integration," according to the NASA press release.

_______________________________________________________________________

Henry Stewart is the pseudonym of a Toronto based aerospace writer.

No Canadarms Needed Under Current US Plans to Return to the Moon by 2024 Says NASA's Gerstenmaier

          By Chuck Black

Short weeks after noting in the May 1st, 2019 post "The Canadian Space Agency has Begun Issuing Millions of Dollars in New Canadarm Contracts for the US Lunar Gateway" that, "if the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) really wanted to build a new "3rd generation Canadarm" for the NASA led US Lunar Gateway, then it might want to wait until someone figures out if and/or when the US wants one," someone has figured out that NASA doesn't really want one.

One of the most famous catchphrases of the 50s was from the TV show, The Life of Riley, which ran from 1953 to 1958. The show featured William Bendix as kind-hearted doofus Chester A. Riley, a wing riveter at the Cunningham Aircraft plant in California. When Riley's well-intentioned blunders blew up in his face, he'd turn to the camera and exclaim,  "What a revoltin' development this is!" Kinda reminds you of Canada. Graphic c/o Imgflip.

At least not for today and not until an alternative plan to plant American astronaut boots on the Moon by 2024 is completed.

The information, as outlined in the May 14th, 2019 SpaceQ post, "Accelerated NASA Moon Landing Plan Doesn’t Need Canadian Robotic System," derived from a series of e-mails from Bill Gerstenmaier, the NASA associate administrator for human exploration and operations. The emails occurred after a May 13th, 2019 NASA teleconference announcing a preliminary budget for the Moon 2024 initiative and naming the project "Artemis."

According to the post, Gerstenmaier said that “at this point in our planning the robotic arm is not required for the 2024 landing.” He also said “we would like the arm as soon as available. The CSA arm concept is very creative and (could) be used inside (of the station) as well.”

This publication has never been a fan of SpaceQ, finding the writing and editorial stance tilted way too far away from journalism in favor of promoting legacy CSA subcontractors, but this particular article is timely and throws most of Canada's space community into a tailspin.

As outlined in the February 28th, 2019 post, "Canada Becomes the First Nation to Formally Commit to the NASA Lunar Gateway Plan," Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made the initial announcement that Canada would be contributing to the US Lunar Gateway in late February, just before the 2019 Federal budget was released and the US decided to change its plan.

Unlike the current Canadian space program, which is locked in concrete until after the next Federal election in October 2019. the NASA's preliminary budget is still expected to be subjected to months of political infighting before being finalized.

As outlined in the May 14th, 2019 Space.com post, "Trump Proposes Extra $1.6Bln for NASA's 2024 Return to Moon," the proposed budget" gives NASA an additional $1.6Bln US ($2.2Bln CDN) in fiscal year 2020, on top of the $21Bln US ($28Bln CDN) already allocated to the space agency."

The plan calls for American astronauts to return to the moon using American made landers and hardware.

But NASA won't get the money "until Congress, which has the power of the purse, officially signs off." No one really knows when that will happen or what will happen with next years budget.

Most observers expect that far more funding will be required in future years. The long-term political prognosis for the proposal is, so far at least, far from favorable. 

So while its good that NASA's Mr. Gerstenmaier is still interested in getting free Canadarms which can be traded for future astronaut slots, informed Canadians should note that the US budget and its NASA component are targeted specifically at programs designed to further US interests.

Not Canadian interests. 

Back in March, almost as soon as Canada committed funding for the US Lunar Gateway, the US government, as outlined in the March 28th, 2019 post, "If NASA is Putting US Boots on the Moon by 2024, Who Will Pay for the Lunar Gateway and Space Launch System?," quietly began the process of throwing Canada's proposed contribution under the bus.

In retrospect, this country and the ruling Justin Trudeau Liberal government was foolish to bet so much of its space future on a US space program focused almost exclusively on US domestic and international concerns. 

Let's see about cleaning up our mistake. Canada's space activities should address Canadian concerns, grow Canada's space industry and solve Canadian problems on Canadian timetables.

We don't need to serve as an adjunct to someone else's space program.

Chuck Black.

___________________________________________________________

Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog. 

Mr. Bezos Goes to the Moon

          By Brian Orlotti

On May 9th, Kent WA based Blue Origin, a private space firm company founded by billionaire Jeff Bezos—revealed at an invite-only event in Washington DC its plans to send a lunar lander named Blue Moon to the Moon’s south pole.

Offering images of teeming, free-floating O’Neill space cylinders, Bezos’ ambition has drawn admiration, skepticism and cynicism alike.

Looking liked an amped-up Apollo lunar module designed by Syd Mead, the Blue Moon will be capable of autonomous navigation and delivering 3.6 to 6.5 metric tons of payload to the Moon’s surface.

Blue Moon can also carry as many as four large rovers, or an "ascent stage," which can launch from the lander to transport people off the Lunar surface. the surface of the Moon. The lander will use a newly developed engine called the BE-7, which will see its first ignition test this summer.

Blue Origin’s target, Shackleton Crater, is an area of both scientific interest as well as a source of two settlement-enabling resources; water and steady sunlight.

Lunar water, useful for drinking water as well as making rocket fuel, was first discovered in the 1990’s by NASA’s Lunar crater observation and sensing satellite (LCROSS) and more recently confirmed by India’s Chandrayaan-1 spacecraft. This water consists of ice deposits residing in the dark areas of craters, like Shackleton, where temperatures do not rise above -156 degrees Celsius.

The ice, likely mixed in with surface soil, could be present in quantities between 10 thousand and a hundred million tons at the Lunar south pole alone.  The lunar poles are also areas of lengthy (though not constant) sunlight, ideal for powering a lunar base via solar energy.

As noted in the May 13th, 2019 Thinknum.com post, "Billionaire Star Wars: Bezos' Blue Origin is now hiring more than Musk's SpaceX," Bezos has ramped up the hiring at Blue Origin. Graphic c/o Thinknum Open Dataset.

The Bezos presentation was likely an attempt to position Blue Origin as the vendor of choice for contracts expected to be issued by NASA over the next few months to support US President Donald Trump's plan to return American astronauts to the Moon by 2024.

While this might not sit well with some of the more entrenched, traditional and "cost-plus" focused NASA subcontractors over the short term, it is the best opportunity for Bezos and Blue Origin to become a major industry player in the space industry. 

Brian Orlotti.

  ______________________________________________________________

Brian Orlotti is a network operator at the Ontario Research and Innovation Optical Network (ORION), a not-for-profit network service provider to the education and research sectors.

The Canadian Space Agency has Begun Issuing Millions of Dollars in New Canadarm Contracts for the US Lunar Gateway

          By Chuck Black

If the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) really wanted to build a new "3rd generation Canadarm" for the NASA led US Lunar Gateway, then it might want to wait until someone figures out if and/or when the US wants one.

After all, as outlined most recently in the April 22nd, 2019 post, "Second Thoughts About Bolting Canada's Space Future to the US Lunar Gateway," the US has already moved away from its original proposal to build the Gateway by 2028 and embraced (at least for today) a far more ambitious plan to return American astronauts to the surface of the Moon by 2024.

No one is sure if the new plan would even need another Canadarm, although its expected that the usual contractors will argue that jobs, corporate profits, the upcoming election and an intangible "Canadian pride" all depend on continued Federal funding for every existing component of the original plan along with additional funding for all the hoped for new components.

The Federal government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau seems to have embraced the contractors perspective. As outlined in the April 26th, 2019 request for proposal (RFP) on the Federal government BuyandSell procurement website under the title, "Gateway External Robotics Interfaces (GERI) Large and Dextrous Arms Interfaces - Phase A (9F052-18-0865)," the CSA has has issued a $2.7Mln CDN Phase-A RFP for a "Lunar Gateway External Large" plus a $3.8Mln CDN Phase-A RFP for "Dextous Arms Interfaces."

The RFPs are a follow-up to the January 29th, 2019 BuyandSell procurement website request for information (RFI) under the title, "Gateway External Robotics Interfaces - Large and dexterous arms interfaces (9F052-18-0648)." Both the original RFI and the current RFPs were issued under the CSA Deep Space Exploration Robotics (DSXR) initiative.

Conventional wisdom expects Brampton ON based MDA, a subsidiary of Westminster CO based Maxar Technologies, to receive awards under both parts of the contract, unless the election is called before the awards can be announced.

Both RFPs close on June 13th, 2019 and call for work to be completed before August 31st, 2020. The next Canadian Federal election is scheduled to take place on or before October 21st, 2019 and will likely be called three months before hand, to allow appropriate time for a proper campaign.

The problem with this sort of procurement is quite simply that, once the project is in the funding funnel it's very difficult to cancel the program, even if the customer requirements change.

A good example of this are the various iterations of US space shuttle derived launch vehicles which, since 1991, have been consistently been rolled out under promises to retain existing expertise at a lower cost, but eventually outgrew their budget and were scaled back and canceled before ever actually flying.

The component parts of the program were then repackaged under a new name and refunded, at least until they also spent too much money and got canceled.

As outlined in the May 1st, 2012 post, "Media Reports: CSA "Lost in Space," RADARSAT "Over Budget" & UrtheCast "Hyped Vaporware"," Canada has also come across one or two of these types of programs.

Most were never really meant to create usable technology. Instead, their intent was to achieve political ends and preserve local jobs and existing corporations which would continue to support the incumbent governments in a variety of ways.

PM Trudeau at CSA headquarters in PQ on February 28th, 2019 during a presentation announcing that Canada would allocate approximately $2Bln CDN over the next twenty four years to support the US plan to build a Lunar Gateway by 2028 as a preliminary step before returning astronauts to the Moon and Mars. But in late March, the US publicly pivoted away from that plan towards a new plan to land astronauts on the Moon by 2024. As outlined in the May 1st, 2019 Space News post, "NASA outlines plan for 2024 lunar landing," the current version of the plan calls for a "minimal version of the Lunar Gateway" with power, propulsion and "some kind of docking/ habitation small module." No word on whether any of those modules will need an arm. Photo c/o Adam Scotti/PMO.

And this specific Canadarm funding program, as noted in the  February 28, 2019 post, "Canada Becomes the First Nation to Formally Commit to the NASA Lunar Gateway Plan," was personally announced by the Canadian Prime Minister, so he's likely to double down on his commitment, even if there is no immediate customer requirement.

Given that, it looks like the new Canadarm program is at risk of becoming the latest in a series of expensive government procurement boondoggles.

It might even end up like CSA Moon rover program, where Canada spent a lot of money and hype beginning in the early 2000's to design, test and build demonstrators, but never got around to actually landing one on another heavenly body.

Chuck Black.

___________________________________________________________

Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog. 

New US Bill Asks NASA to Encourage Space Mining and Assess the Establishment of a Space Resources Institute

          By Chuck Black

A proposed new bill introduced into the US House of Representatives by Scott Tipton (R-Colorado) and Ed Perlmutter (D-Colorado) is calling for the US to encourage space mining activities and for NASA to assess the usefulness of establishing a space resources institute.

But the bill is beginning to raise "off-the-record" eyebrows in Canada among space mining advocates who feel the US legislation could create barriers for international cooperation and damage the potential for making any sort of private sector profit from space based resources.

The legislation, known as the Space Resources Institute Act (H.R.1029) was first presented to the 116th Congress on February 12th, 2019, but languished until referenced by the Washington DC based National Space Society (NSS) in their April 24th, 2019 NSS press release, "National Space Society Endorses the Space Resources Institute Act (H.R. 1029)."

According to the NSS press release:

The National Space Society (NSS) enthusiastically supports the Space Resources Institute Act (H.R. 1029), a bi-partisan bill submitted by Representatives Scott Tipton and Ed Perlmutter. H.R. 1029 directs NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine to submit to Congress “a report on the merits of, and options for, establishing an institute relating to space resources, and for other purposes.” NSS looks forward to seeing a similar bill submitted to the Senate. 

NSS has long called for the utilization of space resources to ensure that space exploration, development, and settlement become cost-effective and sustainable. Chair of the NSS Executive Committee Dale Skran stated, “Establishing a space resources institute to investigate potential technologies and techniques for finding, extracting, and utilizing space resources, including water, minerals, and solar energy, would be a rational next step on the way to enabling sustainable space settlement.”

The bill called for  NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine to submit a report, within the next six months, on the benefits of and options for establishing an institute that would be focused on:

• Identifying, developing, and distributing space resources, including by encouraging the development of foundational science and technology; and,

• Reducing the technological risks associated with identifying, developing, and distributing space resources.

The institute could be based in a physical location or established virtually and could also include partnerships with universities and companies representing aerospace and extractive industries.

In essence, it's a bill asking for more research, not action and everyone needs to begin somewhere. However, that could be where some of the real problems with this sort of national legislation could begin, at least for organizations based outside of the US.

For example, NASA already has a mechanism in place dedicated to funding virtual institutes for fundamental research. It's called the NASA Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI) and supplements existing NASA lunar science programs and could certainly serve as a useful model for the proposed space resources institute.

As outlined on the SSERVI overview, the organization mandate is to bring together multiple entities (academic, industry, government and international) to address significant research issues that cannot be managed by stand alone entities.

But the international, cooperative efforts are all on a "no exchange of funds" basis. To cooperate with the SSERVI, or any similarly structured organization, Canadian and other externally based organizations would be required to share any intellectual property used in a cooperative venture but wouldn't be paid for it.

The only benefit to the contributor would be the chance to participate in program it couldn't create on its own. The US based coordinating organization would gain the IP and would therefore be able to reproduce the venture entirely on its own in the future.

Over time, the knowledge and skill-sets required to fulfill the various missions and mandates would all flow into the US based coordinating organization while the external, participating organizations would slowly lose their ability to organize independent missions.

Eventually, those external organizations would become simple component manufacturers for others, much like the current Canadian Space Agency (CSA) operates in conjunction with NASA.

All of which suggests that there are a great many problems and big gaps in the knowledge of how everything is supposed to work with the new bill, which could be a part of the reason why the bill calls on NASA to "assess" and not "implement."

Both of the US sponsors of the space mining institute legislation represent Colorado, where the Golden CO based Colorado School of Mines Space Resources Program as been a leading institution for the study of space resources and in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) since the 1990's.

It's perfectly sensible for the sponsors represent their own constituents but other nations and organizations should look out for their own self-interests.

Maybe the real trick for Canada is to move forward with independent, domestically focused legislation designed to assist our own industries instead of waiting for some other nation to get the ball rolling and then react to the new state of affairs.

Canada could lead, instead of follow.

Chuck Black.

___________________________________________________________

Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog. 

CSA President Laporte in Connecticut to Learn How to Buy and Sell to the "5 Eyes" Intelligence Alliance

          By Henry Stewart

It looks like Canadian Space Agency (CSA) President Sylvain Laporte will be spending time in Hartford, Connecticut next month to speak at a conference organized by the Commercial Service of the US Department of Commerce and focused (officially at least) around sharing technologies, data, contacts and intelligence from the US, UK, Australian, New Zealand and Canadian space agencies.

Literature from the 2019 International Space Summit. Graphic c/o International Space Trade Summit.

But the five countries participating in the event also comprise the membership of the "5 Eyes" anglophone intelligence alliance and are signatories to the multilateral UKUSA Agreement, a treaty for joint cooperation and the sharing of huge amounts of legally (and sometime illegally) acquired electronic "signals intelligence" and private sector telecom data.

In fact the event has an explicit intelligence connection and the event organizers aren't shy about promoting this. As outlined on the web-page promoting the event:

The International Space Trade Summit will bring the participating countries' advanced manufacturing, high-tech supply chain, and IT companies into the global Space Sector.  

Current and future capabilities required to be in the sector, as well as available opportunities will be discussed. Firms will be provided a better understanding of the space sector in the 5 Eyes allied countries. Companies will be introduced to the space agencies, OEMs, and supply chain SMEs in those countries.

The site also contains an undated, thirty minute video from the CT-N Connecticut Network, covering the US Department of Commerce announcement that it would be organizing the event. The video contains various statements of support from local Connecticut politicians and noted its overt military and intelligence gathering focus.

The 1st International Space Summit, organized by Connecticut district office of the US Department of Commerce, will take place in Hartford CT from May 19th - 21st, 2019. Attendance is restricted to "registrants representing businesses from the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada" according to the summit registration page.

Representatives from the five space agencies (including Laporte) and from the US military will be in attendance, along with prime contractors interested in providing data or technology to military and/or intelligence agencies.

A full agenda and complete speaker list for the event is also available on-line.

As outlined in the April 24th, 2019 BBC News post, "Huawei row: UK to let Chinese firm help build 5G network," the "5-Eyes" network has been in the news lately over concerns that the Shenzhen, China based multinational telecommunications equipment and consumer electronics manufacturer Huawei is in the midst of building a parallel information gathering network (similar to the Western "5-Eyes" network) which could compromise security in western nations.

Maybe our CSA president should rent a room in Ottawa or Toronto when he returns and give a presentation on what he learned. Canadian companies would surely benefit from this sort of knowledge.

Or maybe not.

As noted many times previously in the blog, Canadian owned and operated companies are not eligible for US military contracts, which are restricted to American owned and operated organizations.

But since the 1st International Space Summit is designed specifically to help grow Connecticut based companies focused on military and intelligence applications and since Laporte is a civilian and non-US based space agency president who isn't likely to sell any Canadian products or technology while he's in town, if might be worthwhile to ask one simple question.

"What's a nice, civilian focused, science associated guy like our current CSA president doing in a deep state, military intelligence dominated place like this?"

_______________________________________________________________________

Henry Stewart is the pseudonym of a Toronto based aerospace writer.

Second Thoughts About Bolting Canada's Space Future to the US Lunar Gateway

          By Chuck Black

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may have formally announced Canada's multi-billion dollar commitment to the proposed US Lunar Gateway in the weeks leading up to the release of Budget 2019, but that was before domestic pundits began expressing their reservations.

Space policy isn't the only area where Canada's PM is facing an uphill battle. As outlined in the April 21st, 2019 CBC News post, "With 6 months to go, Justin Trudeau is up against history," incumbent governments "usually lead in the polls this far out from an election," but Trudeau isn't and is struggling in the run-up to the next Canadian election. It's also worth noting the widely held, bipartisan consensus throughout government that MDA is the only company capable of building a Canadarm, a categorization which puts the firm on much the same indispensable government procurement list as Montreal PQ based SNC-Lavalin. Whether or not this is a shrewd place to park over the long-term is problematic. Photo c/o Christopher Katsarov/CP.

Then mercurial US President Donald Trump seemingly abandoned the Gateway in favor of a far more aggressive proposal to return US astronauts to the Moon by 2024. As noted in the April 17th, 2019 Space News post, "Op-ed | Lunar Gateway or Moon Direct?," no one is really sure if some sort of Gateway is even necessary under the revised plan now being developed by NASA.

Given that, much of the second guessing currently winding it's way through the public conscious suddenly takes on a far more reasonable air. Since the US plan is being revised, maybe Canada should also have a second look.

Here are a few recent editorials on the topic:

According to the March 28th, 2019 Policy Options post, "Ask Canadian's what kind of space Program they want," polls show that "Canadians would rather spend public money on other priorities, like education and health care. Similarly, sending an astronaut to the moon may not be what Canadians would prioritize from their space program, compared with the myriad of other aspects of space exploration where we could be investing." 

The article went on to state that, "space policy-making is dominated by technical and industry perspectives."

The Canadian government "needs to ensure that the space policy framework creates an environment which presents a level playing field for all companies, and stimulates true key industrial capabilities for Canada; intellectual property which resides here, and jobs and profits that remain in Canada," according to an undated post on the Future Economy website under the title "Spotlight on the Space Economy; Positioning Canada for Success in the Future of Space,"

The post also included interviews with retired Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield, current Canadian Space Agency (CSA) president Sylvain Laporte, ADGA Group CEO Françoise Gagnon and Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) Assistant Deputy Minister Glenn Mason. 

Future Economy is "a multimedia publishing house that builds on over two decades of international media and events experience," so it's possible that they are in the midst of organizing a conference on this topic.

A Canadian robotics expert, who initially believed that he should welcome Trudeau's new space plan is no longer quite so certain. 

As outlined in the April 18th, 2019 The Conversation post, "Canada’s approach to lunar exploration needs to be strategic or we’ll be left behind," Carlton University assistant professor Alex Ellery called the Lunar Gateway "an incremental progression from the International Space Station (ISS) that has dominated American (and Canadian) human spaceflight for the past few decades. 

Of course, the history of the ISS has been mired in controversy — it was expensive, purposeless, took decades to design, re-design and finally build. It has neither yielded any great scientific advances nor has it advanced human Mars exploration as originally proposed."

Ellery noted that Canada's contribution to the Lunar Gateway will be funneled through a single company. According to Ellery "the Gateway promises to be another white elephant like its predecessor the ISS."

And finally, the April 20th, 2019 Advocator post, "Canada Has to Revamp the National Lunar Exploration Strategy," noted that:

Voices are already raising against this plan. A few condemn the fact that the Canadian Space Agency continues to use the services of a singular company instead of looking at other enterprises which should be able to provide competitive alternatives. Others criticize Canada’s minor ambitions as a country. 

While the other participants in the project are working hard to develop strategies which will allow them to build a veritable lunar colony Canada seems content to remain a mere observer. 

Unless our strategy is revised and improved, we will remain a witness to the greatness of others, while paying for the privilege.

He might be President and CEO of the Canadarm's ultimate prime contractor, but Maxar CEO Dan Jablonsky isn't willing to bet his company on Trudeau government largess. As outlined in the April 10th, 2019 Space News post, "Maxar’s path to growth runs through Worldview Legion," Jablonsky is currently hunting options to keep his core, corporate assets from being broken up and sold. According to the article, all Maxar business units, except for MDA in Canada, have been integrated into a single corporate entity, which kinda suggests that MDA could be sold. An MDA sale for a reasonable amount of money (say, half a billion dollars) could potentially end up being the single best option to raise enough money to insure the funding of the WorldView Legion Constellation, which Maxar management considers essential to future profitability, while retaining core assets within a single, US based corporate entity. This would also allow the company to retain its highly profitable US military contracts. Photo c/o Keith Johnson/SpaceNews.

As outlined in the February 28th, 2019 post, "Canada Becomes the First Nation to Formally Commit to the NASA Lunar Gateway Plan," Trudeau's initial announcement committed Canada to becoming the program's first international partner and allocated $2.05Bln CDN over twenty-four years to fund the program.

Most of the new funding would go to the design and development of a "3rd generation" Canadarm for the Lunar Gateway, which would serve the same function as earlier Canadarm's installed on the ISS and on US space shuttles.

Brampton ON based MDA Corporation, a subsidiary of Westminster CO based Maxar Technologies, will almost certainly receive the lions share of the new funding as the prime contractor for the new Canadarm.

MDA and Maxar both know this.

As outlined in the January 1st, 2019 post, "2018: The Year in Space for Canada," both organizations spent large portions of 2018 lobbying the Trudeau government to support and fund the US Lunar Gateway.

Chuck Black.

___________________________________________________________

Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog. 

US Lunar Gateway Will be Scaled Back for 2024 Moon Landing: Fed's Foolish to Depend on US for Canada's Space Program

          By Chuck Black

Without lots more money, and at least some sort of defined NASA budget outlining priorities, it is foolish to assume that the NASA led US Lunar Gateway and its Canadian built "3rd generation" Canadarm (originally scheduled for 2028) could possibly maintain the same schedule expected when Canada announced and approved its share of the funding for the program in Budget 2019.

Since then, and as outlined in the April 14th, 2019 Space News post, "NASA’s accelerated moon plans create uncertainty for international partners," US president Donald Trump's administration has announced an "about turn" on NASA plans and priorities, essentially pushing aside the Lunar Gateway program in favor of placing "US boots on the Moon" by 2024.

As outlined in the post:

NASA has yet to outline its approach to meeting the goal announced in a March 26 speech by Vice President Mike Pence of landing humans on the south pole of the moon within five years. The agency has been working internally on at least a high-level approach for doing so, and plans to start sharing details with the White House, including the Office of Management and Budget, this week in order to finalize a revised budget request that’s expected to seek several billion dollars more in fiscal year 2020 alone. 

However, in comments at the 35th Space Symposium, NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine said the agency would pursue a two-phase approach that would initially emphasize speed. That approach is expected to use the Space Launch System and Orion, lunar landers and some version of a lunar Gateway.

But the Lunar Gateway is expected to be scaled down dramatically from earlier plans. According to the post:

Some concepts under consideration require only the Power and Propulsion Element, which NASA is in the process of procuring, along with a docking node of some kind that could also serve as a habitation module.

Publicly, potential Gateway partners have said little about how NASA’s accelerated approach would affect their ability or willingness to participate. During an April 10 panel session here on exploration, officials from NASA, the Canadian Space Agency, European Space Agency and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency largely avoided direct discussion of what NASA’s new plans would mean for international contributions to the Gateway or other elements of the exploration architecture.

Expect no public comments from CSA and the other potential Gateway partners until NASA's budget is finalized, sometime later this year.

When NASA's plan is finally rolled out, it is almost certain that the Justin Trudeau Liberal government and its Canadian Space Agency (CSA) bureaucracy will need to come up with a new plan for the $1.95Bln CDN allocated over the next 24 years as Canada's contribution to the Lunar Gateway.

The Canadian government should certainly have known by now that there are better things to do than to tie our space future to an incomplete plan developed by an external space power, even if its the US.

At the very least, none of the other partners were stupid enough to have signed on to the deal yet. They were waiting for the plan to stabilize so that they could begin generating their own plans to contribute within the bigger program

But Canada didn't. We pushed ahead and committed to funding our share of a proposal which is in the midst of being seriously changed.

So here we are. Hung out to dry and waving in the breeze. Bugger!

Chuck Black.

___________________________________________________________

Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog. 

An Aggressive, Achievable Plan Requiring Lots of Money to Accomplish

          By Henry Stewart

American experts and industry suppliers are slowly chiming in on US Vice President Mike Pence's aggressive demand that the US commit to placing "boots on the Moon" by 2024. The emerging consensus is that the goal is achievable, but difficult and will "require concerted effort by NASA, the White House, and the Office of Management and Budget."

As outlined in the March 28th, 2019 Space.com post, "Can NASA Really Put Astronauts on the Moon in 2024?," Pence has instructed NASA to put US astronauts on the lunar surface by 2024, four years earlier than previously planned.

The article noted that representatives from Denver CO based Lockheed Martin Space Systems, the prime contractor for the Orion multi-purpose crew vehicle (Orion MPCV), have indicated that:

... the company could build a crewed lunar lander relatively quickly, by leveraging technologies developed for Orion. This lander could touch down by 2024, provided it departs from an "early version" of the (Lunar) Gateway, the moon-orbiting space station that NASA plans to start building in 2022 as a fulcrum for landing operations.

The article also quoted Brian Weeden, the director of program planning at the Washington DC based Secure World Foundation, a private operating foundation that promotes cooperative solutions for space sustainability and the peaceful uses of outer space.

According to Wheedon, "The question has always been politics."

Historically, Congress and the White House tend to pull NASA in different directions, he explained, and the agency doesn't have enough money to do all that it's asked to do.

Any increase in the tempo of the construction of the NASA led Lunar Gateway could also effect the Canadian Federal government's recent commitment of $1.9Bln CDN in funding for a 3rd generation Canadarm for the Gateway.

As outlined in the March 20th, 2019 "Special Report on the 2019 Federal Budget," the funding for the new Canadarm doesn't really start to kick in until the 2020-2021 budget period. It might need to be re-allocated or pushed forward in order to effectively contribute to the now modified, US initiative.

_______________________________________________________________________

Henry Stewart is the pseudonym of a Toronto based aerospace writer.

If NASA is Putting US Boots on the Moon by 2024, Who Will Pay for the Lunar Gateway and Space Launch System?

          By Chuck Black

It's worth noting that very few large government or private sector organizations ever announce new initiatives unless they're having trouble raising enough money to build the consensus needed for the previous plan.

Not that there's anything wrong with that. It's just the way the world works.

It's also worth noting that, in Canada at least, our space program has recently tied its future to approximately $2Bln CDN of new funding over the next twenty-four years to construct an AI turbocharged next generation Canadarm for the NASA led Lunar Gateway.

The Gateway is one of two major US programs which could very well end up delayed or on the chopping block to fund this latest, boots on the Moon, US initiative. Or worse, each individual program could continue but no single program would ever receive enough of a budget to ever accomplish something.

That would be kinda like how things are now.

US President Trump. Photo c/o Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images.

As outlined in the March 27th, 2019 Forbes post, "'Get Americans On The Moon In 5 Years' - VP Mike Pence Challenges NASA," the US VP called for "American astronauts to be back on the Moon within the next five years," during a speech at the Huntsville AL based US Space and Rocket Center, a space focused museum operated by the government of Alabama on Tuesday.

According to the post:

Pence said that NASA should be getting boots on the ground at the Moon’s South Pole “by any means necessary”. 

“It is the stated policy of this administration and the United States of America to return American astronauts to the moon within the next five years,” he said. “The first woman and the next man on the moon will both be American astronauts, launched by American rockets from American soil.”

Pence even suggested that the US astronauts should land near the Moon's south pole, which would make it easier to explore for water and the other astronaut consumables needed to set up permanent facilities.

But without an approved FY 2019 funding package the US VP is only using his political capital and public speaking skills to put together the consensus needed to either approve or change the existing FY 2019 NASA budget request into something which can be approved.

Given that, his announcement should be taken with a grain of salt. Only when the final NASA budget is approved will anyone have any real idea of what NASA will be doing this year.

And then next year, everyone starts over.

It's hard to defund or wind-down a Federal government program once its been rolled-out. As outlined in the March 14th, 2019 post, "NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) is Officially in Trouble," NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine promised, earlier this month, to investigate replacing the very expensive and terribly behind schedule first orbital launch of the NASA Space Launch System (SLS) with two, far less expensive, already operational rockets supplied by commercial launch providers. But, as noted in the March 15th, 2019 post, "Bridenstine Reassures SLS/Orion Workforce That They're Still Needed," the NASA Administrator began backtracking on his statements the very next day. Just over a week later, as noted in the March 26th, 2019 SpacePolicyOnline.com post, "Commercial Alternatives to SLS for EM-1 Rejected," things were back to normal and the SLS program was back on track. Whether or not the now back-to-normal program ever accomplishes anything substantive is another question entirely. Graphic c/o SpacePolicyOnline.

Other commentators have also noted that this latest of many hard turns in space policy is still tentative and mostly unsustainable without consensus and new funding. For example, and as outlined in the March 28th, 2019 The Atlantic post, "Why Trump Wants to Go to the Moon So Badly," NASA:

... received far more funding in the Apollo days than it does now; at the moon program’s peak, the agency’s annual budget accounted for more than 4 percent of federal spending. It’s less than half a percent today. NASA has poured plenty into exploration efforts in the past several decades, but one president’s policies usually get yanked back by the next. Little gets done in the meantime. 

The latest NASA budget, $21.5Bln US ($29Mln CDN), is the largest in years. But the Trump administration had requested $19.9Bln US ($27Mln CDN), and it was Congress, the final arbiter on funding, who added the extra cash. And in its request for next year’s allocation, the administration actually proposed scaling back funding.

Others are far more cynical. As outlined in the March 27th, 2019 Popular Mechanics post, "Not Going Back to the Moon: A Brief Timeline," VP Pence has:

...become the face of the Trump Administration's mission to put US boots back on the moon, and beyond. Last fall, NASA released a roadmap of its new new plan for returning to the lunar surface via the Lunar Gateway, a space station to be built in orbit around the moon. But that timeline wouldn't put Americans there until 2028. 

At yesterday's (the Tuesday, March 26th, 2019) Space Council meeting, Pence declared that 2028 is not soon enough. He demanded NASA return to the moon by 2024—perhaps not coincidentally, the final year of a theoretical two-term Trump Administration—and said that if NASA couldn't do the job, the Executive Branch would find somebody in the private sector who could.

The Popular Mechanics post also noted a series of policy changes and reversals which related to space and went back to the Bush presidency. Most of the current US plans for the future go back to that period and while some of the programs have changed their names over the part twenty years, most of the same technology is still on the same drawing boards and being promoted in much the same way by many of the same engineers and politicians.

The only real change over the last twenty years has come from the way NASA has contracted out some of its smaller programs.

The reference to "private sector" providers is a veiled reference to the various corporations which grew out of the NASA Commercial Crew Development (CCDev) program. CCDev used what, for NASA at least, was considered to be an innovative series of public/private partnerships and procurement contracts to fund and build low-cost space technology.

The capacity developed through the CCDev program is likely almost ready to compete with NASA's legacy programs, such as the SLS and the Lunar Gateway. Hawthorne CA based SpaceX and it's mercurial CEO Elon Musk is already "bending metal" on privately funded technology intended to colonize Mars.

Over the next few years, this new tech will begin to wag the legacy dog.

Of course, none of this is going to help Canada's space industry. We've strapped our space future to an expensive legacy Lunar Gateway controlled by the Americans over which we have no real input. The program will live, die or end up on life support depending on US domestic policy concerns which have nothing to do with Canadian issues.

Maybe we'll take a page from the Americans and start changing the plan after every budget. Stranger things have happened and it sure would confuse the Americans!

Chuck Black.

___________________________________________________________

Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog. 

The Mars 2020 Rover is About to Go Over Budget

          By Henry Stewart

NASA's current flagship robotics mission, the $2.46Bln US ($3.29Bln CDN) Mars 2020 rover, is "following the pattern of its predecessors and seeing its cost rise because of technical issues."

As outlined in the March 18th, 2019 Science post, "Cost of Mars 2020 mission may rise by up to 15%," the mission’s cost will increase by "no more than 15%" according to Lori Glade, NASA’s acting director of planetary science.

That's still a sizable sum and will take money away from other NASA missions. Cost growth above the 15% threshold would also trigger requirements for US Congressional notification and mission modifications, according to a plan put in place by NASA in 2016 intended to limit cost overruns.

As outlined in the March 19th, 2019 Space News post, "NASA dealing with cost growth on planetary science flagship missions," there had been "widespread rumors in the planetary science community that Mars 2020 was facing cost overruns."

According to the article:

The agency said problems with two instruments, the planetary instrument for x-ray lithochemistry and scanning habitable environments with raman and luminescence for organics and chemicals, as well as rover’s system for caching samples that will be returned to Earth by future missions, contributed to the cost growth.

Mars 2020 is part of a larger NASA multi-mission plan to collect Martian rock and soil samples for eventual return to Earth. Any cost overruns and delays in the Mars 2020 mission will likely also impact and delay the anticipated follow-on missions.

As outlined in the December 4th, 2018 Don't Let Go Canada post, "Canadian-Based Company Selected to Design Next-Generation Mars Rover," Brampton ON based MDA Space Systems will have the opportunity to contribute to the follow-on programs.

The Mars 2020 rover is currently scheduled to launch on in July 2020, and touch down in Jezero crater on Mars in February 2021.

_______________________________________________________________________

Henry Stewart is the pseudonym of a Toronto based aerospace writer.