The Proposed CASTOR Space Telescope is Looking for Funding

          By Chuck Black

A design for a proposed Canadian space telescope intended to provide panoramic, high-resolution imaging in the UV/optical (0.15–0.55 µm) spectral region is being revisited by many of the same academics, scientists and engineers who contributed to the initial design.

The Cosmological Advanced Survey Telescope for Optical and ultraviolet Research (CASTOR) was the subject of a thirty five page Canadian Space Agency (CSA) position paper seven years ago, but the project has received no substantive funding since the paper was published in March 2012.

The original CASTOR proposal was developed in response to the Canadian Astronomical Society's (CASCA) 2010 Long Range Plan for Canadian Astronomy, a review of Canadian capabilities intended to outline "the broad goals and directions of astronomical and astrophysical research in Canada," over the period from 2010 - 2020.

It derived from an earlier CASCA plans to champion a domestically based large space telescope project in order to promote Canadian academic and private sector capabilities to the rest of the world.

As outlined in the CASCA 2010 Long Range Plan:

• The highest priority in space astronomy is: “…significant involvement in the next generation of dark energy missions — ESA‘s Euclid, or the NASA WFIRST mission, or a Canadian-led mission, the Canadian Space Telescope (CST).”

• “… Canadian space astronomy technology has reached the point that we could [now] lead a large space astronomy mission (such as the Canadian Space Telescope).”

• “Leading such a project would break new ground for Canadian space astronomy and present numerous opportunities for Canadian companies to showcase technological capabilities.” 

The CASCA Joint Committee on Space Astronomy advises the CSA on matters pertaining to the space astronomy segment of the CSA space science program including priorities, areas of research, selection mechanisms and funding. They thought that they had a decent chance of moving the program forward, but after the initial reception, the plan languished in unfunded space project purgatory, where it seemingly remained until last week.

Early milestones in CASCA's quest to generate the CST. Chart c/o the July 2014 CASCA CASTOR website. 

The revival came on the Space Matters website from one of the original authors of the 2012 CASTOR proposal. As outlined in the May 9th, 2019 Space Matters post, "CASTOR: a Beaver or a Canadian Space Telescope?," space astronomy is on the verge of a revolution:

In the next decade, a pair of sophisticated imaging telescopes — Europe’s Euclid mission and NASA’s WFIRST mission — will survey the skies at red-optical and infrared wavelengths, hoping to unlock the secrets of Dark Energy, a mysterious form of energy that is causing the expansion of the universe to accelerate. 

CASTOR has been designed to complement these by providing razor-sharp images at shorter wavelengths, in the ultraviolet and blue-optical region.

CASTOR would not only open a new window on the cosmos, but it would succeed the legendary Hubble Space Telescope (HST) as the world’s preeminent imaging facility at these wavelengths. Launched in 1990, HST is nearing the end of its lifetime, and astronomers worldwide will soon lose access to the razor-sharp imaging capabilities that have propelled their research to new heights and captivated the pubic in the process.

Author Patrick Côté is an astronomer at the National Research Council’s (NRC) Herzberg Astronomy & Astrophysics Research Centre in Victoria BC and one of the contributors to the 2012 CASTOR proposal.

The Space Matters website began in 2018 with a Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) PromoScience grant to the Centre for Planetary Science and Exploration (CPSX) at the University of Western Ontario (Western).

Current partners in the Space Matters collective also include the Canadian Association of Science Centres, the Canadian Aviation and Space Museum, the Canada Science and Technology Museum, Partners in Research Canada, the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada, the Space Generation Advisory Council and the Students for the Exploration and Development of Space.

Cover page from the March 2012 CSA overview of CASTOR, which included a list of contributing authors. Cambridge ON based COM DEV International would likely have become the prime contractor for the program had it been approved and funded by the CSA, which accounts for the large number of COM DEV contributors. Graphic c/o CSA.

Will CASTER ever receive enough funding to move forward? That's not likely given the upcoming election and the uncomfortable fact that the natural prime contractor for the project is no longer in existence.

In November 2015, Cambridge ON based COM DEV International, a strong contributer to the 2012 CASTOR position paper, was purchased by Charlotte NC based Honeywell International.

It's unknown if the current owners would be able to take on the prime contractor role for CASTER. Maybe that's something that can be revisited at some point.

Chuck Black.

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Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog. 

Second Thoughts About Bolting Canada's Space Future to the US Lunar Gateway

          By Chuck Black

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may have formally announced Canada's multi-billion dollar commitment to the proposed US Lunar Gateway in the weeks leading up to the release of Budget 2019, but that was before domestic pundits began expressing their reservations.

Space policy isn't the only area where Canada's PM is facing an uphill battle. As outlined in the April 21st, 2019 CBC News post, "With 6 months to go, Justin Trudeau is up against history," incumbent governments "usually lead in the polls this far out from an election," but Trudeau isn't and is struggling in the run-up to the next Canadian election. It's also worth noting the widely held, bipartisan consensus throughout government that MDA is the only company capable of building a Canadarm, a categorization which puts the firm on much the same indispensable government procurement list as Montreal PQ based SNC-Lavalin. Whether or not this is a shrewd place to park over the long-term is problematic. Photo c/o Christopher Katsarov/CP.

Then mercurial US President Donald Trump seemingly abandoned the Gateway in favor of a far more aggressive proposal to return US astronauts to the Moon by 2024. As noted in the April 17th, 2019 Space News post, "Op-ed | Lunar Gateway or Moon Direct?," no one is really sure if some sort of Gateway is even necessary under the revised plan now being developed by NASA.

Given that, much of the second guessing currently winding it's way through the public conscious suddenly takes on a far more reasonable air. Since the US plan is being revised, maybe Canada should also have a second look.

Here are a few recent editorials on the topic:

According to the March 28th, 2019 Policy Options post, "Ask Canadian's what kind of space Program they want," polls show that "Canadians would rather spend public money on other priorities, like education and health care. Similarly, sending an astronaut to the moon may not be what Canadians would prioritize from their space program, compared with the myriad of other aspects of space exploration where we could be investing." 

The article went on to state that, "space policy-making is dominated by technical and industry perspectives."

The Canadian government "needs to ensure that the space policy framework creates an environment which presents a level playing field for all companies, and stimulates true key industrial capabilities for Canada; intellectual property which resides here, and jobs and profits that remain in Canada," according to an undated post on the Future Economy website under the title "Spotlight on the Space Economy; Positioning Canada for Success in the Future of Space,"

The post also included interviews with retired Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield, current Canadian Space Agency (CSA) president Sylvain Laporte, ADGA Group CEO Françoise Gagnon and Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) Assistant Deputy Minister Glenn Mason. 

Future Economy is "a multimedia publishing house that builds on over two decades of international media and events experience," so it's possible that they are in the midst of organizing a conference on this topic.

A Canadian robotics expert, who initially believed that he should welcome Trudeau's new space plan is no longer quite so certain. 

As outlined in the April 18th, 2019 The Conversation post, "Canada’s approach to lunar exploration needs to be strategic or we’ll be left behind," Carlton University assistant professor Alex Ellery called the Lunar Gateway "an incremental progression from the International Space Station (ISS) that has dominated American (and Canadian) human spaceflight for the past few decades. 

Of course, the history of the ISS has been mired in controversy — it was expensive, purposeless, took decades to design, re-design and finally build. It has neither yielded any great scientific advances nor has it advanced human Mars exploration as originally proposed."

Ellery noted that Canada's contribution to the Lunar Gateway will be funneled through a single company. According to Ellery "the Gateway promises to be another white elephant like its predecessor the ISS."

And finally, the April 20th, 2019 Advocator post, "Canada Has to Revamp the National Lunar Exploration Strategy," noted that:

Voices are already raising against this plan. A few condemn the fact that the Canadian Space Agency continues to use the services of a singular company instead of looking at other enterprises which should be able to provide competitive alternatives. Others criticize Canada’s minor ambitions as a country. 

While the other participants in the project are working hard to develop strategies which will allow them to build a veritable lunar colony Canada seems content to remain a mere observer. 

Unless our strategy is revised and improved, we will remain a witness to the greatness of others, while paying for the privilege.

He might be President and CEO of the Canadarm's ultimate prime contractor, but Maxar CEO Dan Jablonsky isn't willing to bet his company on Trudeau government largess. As outlined in the April 10th, 2019 Space News post, "Maxar’s path to growth runs through Worldview Legion," Jablonsky is currently hunting options to keep his core, corporate assets from being broken up and sold. According to the article, all Maxar business units, except for MDA in Canada, have been integrated into a single corporate entity, which kinda suggests that MDA could be sold. An MDA sale for a reasonable amount of money (say, half a billion dollars) could potentially end up being the single best option to raise enough money to insure the funding of the WorldView Legion Constellation, which Maxar management considers essential to future profitability, while retaining core assets within a single, US based corporate entity. This would also allow the company to retain its highly profitable US military contracts. Photo c/o Keith Johnson/SpaceNews.

As outlined in the February 28th, 2019 post, "Canada Becomes the First Nation to Formally Commit to the NASA Lunar Gateway Plan," Trudeau's initial announcement committed Canada to becoming the program's first international partner and allocated $2.05Bln CDN over twenty-four years to fund the program.

Most of the new funding would go to the design and development of a "3rd generation" Canadarm for the Lunar Gateway, which would serve the same function as earlier Canadarm's installed on the ISS and on US space shuttles.

Brampton ON based MDA Corporation, a subsidiary of Westminster CO based Maxar Technologies, will almost certainly receive the lions share of the new funding as the prime contractor for the new Canadarm.

MDA and Maxar both know this.

As outlined in the January 1st, 2019 post, "2018: The Year in Space for Canada," both organizations spent large portions of 2018 lobbying the Trudeau government to support and fund the US Lunar Gateway.

Chuck Black.

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Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog. 

The 2018 State of the Canadian Space Sector Report Notes Decreased Domestic and Increased International Sales

          By Henry Stewart

The 2018 State of the Canadian Space Sector, the latest in a series of annual compilations of Canada's space capabilities produced by the economic analysis and research team at the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), is now online. Although it was released on Thursday April 4th, 2019, it's officially a 2018 report using data collected in 2017.

The latest report continues to note a long-term pattern of declining domestic sales of Canadian space focused products while international sales of the sames products increase.

The front cover of the PDF version of the 2018 State of the Canadian Space Sector Report. Graphic c/o CSA.

As outlined in the executive summary of the report:

• In 2017, the space sector contributed $2.3Bln CDN to Canada's GDP and supported a total of 21,828 jobs.

• Total revenues in the Canadian space sector reached $5.6Bln CDN for 2017. This is a slight increase over 2015 ($5.3Bln CDN) and 2016 ($5.5Bln CDN). 

• The Canadian space workforce totalled 9,942 space-related full-time equivalents (FTEs), of which 43% were highly qualified personnel (HQP).

• Business Expenditures on R&D (BERD) reached $363Mln CDN, a 43% increase from the previous year.

• Canadian space companies derived $330M in revenues through the commercialization of externally funded R&D projects, a significant growth from 2016.

• Space sector organizations reported a total of 203 inventions and 118 patents.

• Canada's top 30 space organizations accounted for 97% space revenues, 81% of space employment, 88% of BERD, 65% of patents, but only 32% of inventions. In essence, larger companies drove more revenue, hired more people and filed more patents but seemed to invent less. 

The complete report is available online from the Government of Canada.

Canadian space companies enjoy a strong reputation on the international marketplace but sell fewer and fewer of their products in Canada. Graphic c/o CSA.

Recent State of the Canadian Space Sector Reports, as outlined in the December 4th, 2017 post, "The Latest CDN Space Sector Report Notes 5 Year Slump (Except for BC) & Industry Dominates, Not Academia or Gov't," and the July 26th, 2018 post, "Assessing the 2016 State of the Canadian Space Sector Report" have noted an ongoing stagnation of Canadian space industry activities with declining domestic revenues offsetting the growth in sales from international markets.

The latest report continues this trend, although overall growth is now positive. It's likely that the Canadian space industry has finally pulled out of the long-term slump first noted in the 2016 report.

With Ottawa ON based Telesat moving forward with its low-Earth orbit communications constellation and new Federal funding expected to begin flowing to fund Canada's multi-billion dollar "3rd generation Canadarm" contribution to the US led Lunar Gateway beginning next year, it's likely that domestic sales revenue will now begin to increase in parallel with the international market.

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Henry Stewart is the pseudonym of a Toronto based aerospace writer.

The $150Mln CDN Lunar Exploration Acceleration Program (LEAP) Funding Will Likely be Pushed Out After the Next Election

          By Chuck Black

After a month of anticipation, we still don't know much about the new $150Mln Canadian Space Agency (CSA) Lunar Exploration Accelerator Program (LEAP), which is intended to assist small, space focused businesses and distract from the larger 1.95Bln CDN the government has pledged to support the US led Lunar Gateway.

There seems to be no Federal government website set up to explain the program and formal inquiries to the CSA from this blog have, so far at least, not led to any "on the record" clarifications.

Off the record, "knowledgeable sources" have indicated that the program is "not budget dependent" which could mean that funding is not available this year, or it could mean that the funding will be pulled from other Federal programs and isn't really new funding.

We don't really know.

Those "knowledgeable sources" have also indicated that the CSA will issue a request for information (RFI) to begin the process of clarifying the program "within the next few weeks." But since this is an election year, if nothing gets clarified before the election is called, then any funding expected to be provided through the program could be cancelled, revised, changed or pushed out until after the election.

And the RFI won't clarify things by itself. The CSA needs to assess the information gathered through the RFI, and then issue a request for proposal (RFP) based on the capabilities of those likely to apply.

After all, if no one has indicated that they are capable of fulfilling a proposed RFP, then issuing it is a waste of time.

The RFP is when the agreement is made for the money to change hands.

Naturally, there will be a significant time lag before the CSA can assess the information collected through the RFI and issue the follow-on RFP. Typically, this process will take several months.

So even if the initial RFI is issued today, the CSA will allow for a period of time (normally one or two months) for organizations to respond before closing the RFI off. Assessing the RFI responses to incorporate their capabilities into an RFP will normally take a few more months.

Assuming the best case occurs and the RFI is issued immediately, the CSA won't be ready to issue an RFP before July 2019 (at the earliest) and the RFP will remain open for response through at least August 2019.

Once the RFP closes off, the CSA will begin the perfectly reasonable process of assessing the responses. If CSA is "firing on all cylinders," it should have assessed the responses and be ready to announce funding for successful RFP candidates by September/ October 2019.

But, as outlined in the Elections Canada Act, the next Canadian Federal election must be held on or before Monday, October 21st, 2019. Normally, Federal elections are announced three months in advance to allow the major parties time to prepare and campaign although there have been exceptions. The minimum campaign length is thirty-six days.

In essence, the election will be most likely be called long before the CSA can assess the responses to an RFP on the LEAP program. When an election campaign formally begins, LEAP program funding (wherever its coming from) will be suspended until the election campaign is concluded.

LEAP won't provide any funding to innovative new Canadian space focused companies until after the next Federal election, if ever. Any small business looking for a grant through the LEAP program to show up anytime soon is "dreaming in technicolor."

Chuck Black.

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Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog. 

A Space Focused Overview of the 2019 Federal Budget is Now Available Online

          By Chuck Black

It's a little bit late (it was posted 1am EST last night) and it's got a few typo's and glitches (which we're hoping to correct for next time) but the March 20th, 2019 Commercial Space blog "Special Report" on "A Space Focused Overview of the 2019 Federal Budget" is now available online.

The report also contains an overview of the last three Federal budgets and how those documents effected the Canadian space industry, an overview of recent press releases from corporations and industry groups reacting to the latest budget and links to primary source materials.

It's important for independent journalists to hold governments to account and provide context for government decisions and current events. If you'd like to learn more about how you can assist with this, please contact me at Chuck.Black@commercialspacemedia.com. 

Chuck Black.

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Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog. 

We'll Release a "Special Report" on the 2019 Federal Budget on Wednesday, March 20th

Finance Minister Bill Morneau will formally release his fourth Federal Budget to the Canadian House of Commons just after 4pm EST today.

This blog is compiling a "Special Report" on what the new budget means for Canada's space industry. It will be e-mailed directly to Commercial Space blog subscribers on Wednesday, March 20th, 2019.

If you're not a subscriber who already receives our regular Tuesday and Friday coverage and wish to receive a free subscription, please check out the "Subscribe to this Blog" section on the Commercial Space blog website.

Finance Minister Morneau in the House of Commons. Photo c/o Canadian Press/Sean Kilpatrick.

As outlined in the March 17th, 2019 National Post article, "Morneau seen delivering a stimulus-filled budget ahead of the election," Canada’s ruling Liberals "are expected to table a goody-filled budget later this week in bid to get back on course with voters."

Several of those about to be announced goodies are expected to effect the space industry and the various innovation policies developed by the Federal government over the last four years to turn Canada into a global centre for innovation.

The budget will almost certainly also serve as an informal (and perhaps formal, depending on the validity of various political rumors currently making the rounds) kick-off to the 2019 Federal election.

For more, check out the Commercial Space blog "Special Report" on the 2019 Federal Budget on Wednesday.

If Canada REALLY Wanted to Go To the Moon, We Should Support Bob Richards or Call Elon Musk

          By Chuck Black

The Liberal government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is at least being honest when talking about Federal motivation to participate in the US Lunar Gateway.

As outlined in the March 6th, 2019 Canadian government press release, "Launching Canada's Space Strategy," the key priority of the strategy is "investing in science, innovation and research" which, according the press release, will unlock "new opportunities for economic growth," create "thousands of jobs for hard-working Canadians," and help Canadian's "understand the world we live in and our place in it."

But while there is nothing intrinsically wrong with the government's stated motivations, some (in office and elsewhere) have argued that the Moon is now "the central focus of the new space strategy and investments," despite what the press release explicitly states.

Those arguments are obviously in error. The new plan is simply about jobs on Earth.

If Canada really wanted to land Canadian rovers and explore the Moon remotely, we'd provide a few extra tens to millions to Cape Canaveral FL based Moon Express.

As outlined most recently in the November 30th, 2018 post, "Procurement Contracts, Not Science or Engineering, Will Define the Next Generation of Robotics and Planetary Rovers," the company and it's expatriate Canadian founder Robert Richards already possess major Canadian connections and a skill-set widely expected to land rovers on the Moon within the next two years for far, far less than what Canada is spending on the Lunar Gateway.

If our focus is really on the Moon and if we want to land rovers there to explore, we should call Moon Express.

Of course, we might also want to send astronauts to the Moon. In that case, we might want to send a few hundreds of millions of dollars to Elon Musk, the CEO of Hawthorne CA based SpaceX.

That's still hundreds of millions of dollars less than we would be spending under "Canada's New Space Strategy" which, as outlined in the March 7th, 2019 post, "Minister Bains Releases "Canada's New (Sorta) Space Strategy," But No Details or New Funding Announcements," is already expected to cost billions.

And Musk already has rockets. Lots of them They're reusable, better than anything anyone else can field and already dominate the international launch market.

He's also got spaceships.

As outlined in the March 3rd, 2019 post, "Crew Dragon Docks at International Space Station," SpaceX is currently rolling out a human rated rated capsule which could begin ferrying astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) within the next year.

Musk, who holds South African, Canadian, and US citizenship but lives in California, has made no secret of his wish to explore space, the Moon and colonize Mars.

As outlined in the February 1st, 2019 Futurism post, "Elon Musk’s New Goal: “Reach the Moon as Fast as Possible,” the entrepreneur has the skill and the knowledge to get there, but is working with a limited, private sector budget.

A few hundred million extra dollars from the Canadian government would certainly solve the cash flow problem and allow Canada to land our astronauts on the Moon at a far lower cost than contributing a next generation Canadarm for the Lunar Gateway and hoping for the best, which is the plan being promoted in Canada's new space strategy.

Of course, calling Musk or Richards won't unlock "new opportunities for economic growth," create "thousands of jobs for hard-working Canadians," or even help Canadian's "understand the world we live in and our place in it," at least not as government understands it.

Nor will it help to protect jobs at legacy space companies like Brantford ON based MDA Space Systems, the subsidiary of Westminster CO based Maxar Technologies which builds the iconic Canadarm or the hundreds of Canadian Space Agency (CSA) employees who need to do something to justify their salaries.

As outlined in the March 01, 2019 post, "Maxar Technologies Misses Q4 Revenue Estimates; Will Retain SSL Subsidiary & Drop Dividend to $.01 US per Share," Maxar is hoping for at least one more big sale to save its bacon. Musk and Richards can't help with that.

But then, the object of the new Canadian funding isn't to get to the Moon. It's jobs.

In this, the Canadian plan has much in common with the US Space Launch System (SLS) which, as described in the February 19th, 2019 Ars Technica post, "After nearly $50 billion, NASA’s deep-space plans remain grounded," hasn't really accomplished anything except for acting as a jobs program.

But at least that retained workforce is more likely to vote for the politicians who supported the SLS and saved their jobs. In that way, one could argue that the SLS also saved political jobs.

Expect much the same to happen in Canada over the next few years, as the Lunar Gateway initially seems to move forward and then doesn't.

Chuck Black.

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Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog. 

Maxar Technologies Misses Q4 Revenue Estimates; Will Retain SSL Subsidiary & Drop Dividend to $.01 US per Share

          By Chuck Black

Shareholders of Westminster CO based Maxar Technologies will be waiting patiently over the next few days to see how the market reacts to Maxar's latest quarterly earning report.

The complete slide deck used for the February 28th, 2019 Maxar Q4 2018 Earnings call is available online here. A transcript of the call was published in the March 1st, 2019 Seeking Alpha post, "Maxar Technologies Inc (MAXR) CEO Dan Jablonsky on Q4 2018 Results - Earnings Call Transcript." Graphic c/o Maxar.

Initial signs are not good. As outlined in the February 28th, 2019 Maxar press release, "Maxar Technologies Reports 2018 Year End Results," the company has reported:

• Consolidated revenues of $2,141Mln US ($2.813Mln CDN), which was a rough miss on Q4 revenue expectations. Revenues fell 9% due to shortfalls at Maxar's Palo Alta CA based SSL GEO satellite manufacturing facility, which was mitigated somewhat by gains in imagery revenue from the US government.

• A net loss under US generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) of $1,264Mln US ($1.661Mln CDN) including $1,096Mln US ($1.440Mln CDN) in impairment losses.

• A net loss under US GAAP of $21.76 US ($28.59 CDN) per share excluding impairment losses of $2.90 per share.

• An adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to sales ratio (EBITDA1) of $472Mln US ($620Mln CDN) with an adjusted EBITDA1 margin of 22%.

• A quarterly dividend reduced from $0.02764 US to $0.01 US per share and an organizational restructuring.

Maxar, which seems to have been unable to sell SSL for any reasonable amount, has decided to continue its operations while "rightsizing the organization to better align its costs with revenue."

As outlined in the February 13th, 2019 Seeking Alpha post, "Maxar Technologies: Betting On Space," most analysts had felt that Maxar needed to cut the quarterly stock dividend plus sell SSL for a reasonable amount of money, perhaps around $500Mln US ($660Mln CDN), in order to turn around the company.

Since new Maxar President and CEO Daniel Jablonsky and recently appointed Executive VP and CFO Biggs Porter were able to only address one of those two issues, the company is still treading on dangerous ground.

Does the new "Maxar" arm use Canadarm technology? As noted previously in this blog, NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine is a big advocate of Maxar/MDA.  Photo's c/o @JimBridenstine.

On the upside, the organizational restructuring did take note of potential future revenue expected to come from Canada as a result of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Thursday announcement that Canada has made a formal commitment to the US led Lunar Gateway

As outlined in the February 28th, 2019 post, "Canada Becomes the First Nation to Formally Commit to the NASA Lunar Gateway Plan," much of the $2Bln CDN allocated to the program over the next 24 years will eventually filter down to Maxar's Brampton ON based MDA Space Systems subsidiary.

But not today.

Canadian's won't likely know the funding details of the new Federal program until after the 2019 Federal Budget is tabled on March 19th, 2019 and won't be able to take advantage of the potential new opportunity until then, or maybe later.

Chuck Black.

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Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog. 

Canada Becomes the First Nation to Formally Commit to the NASA Lunar Gateway Plan

          By Chuck Black

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced that Canada will become the first international partner to join the US led Lunar Gateway program, a plan promoted and managed by NASA but expected to be partially funded by multinational contributions from countries such as Canada.

Trudeau's announcement is the first formal statement of commitment to the program from another nation.

The NASA Lunar Gateway is intended to serve as a follow-on program to the current International Space Station (ISS) and will serve as a stepping stone for NASA's deep space exploration plans.

NASA's newest best friend. Canadian PM Trudeau explaining that "Canada is stepping up" to build another Canadarm for the US Lunar Gateway and also contribute in other ways. According to Trudeau, the new Canadarm "that will repair and maintain the Lunar Gateway" will be "built in Canada by Canadians," although he didn't say which domestic (or foreign owned) company would build it. As always, space politics (even in Canada) is mostly about jobs, not science. The full press conference is available online under the title, "LIVE NOW – Watch Prime Minister Justin Trudeau make a historic announcement about Canada in space!" on the CSA Facebook page. Screenshot c/o Facebook. 

Although the fiscal specifics are unclear and likely won't be known until after the 2019 Federal Budget is tabled on March 19th, 2019, Trudeau did make a verbal commitment of $2.05Bln CDN over the next twenty-four years to contribute to the NASA program.

That's less than $100Mln CDN a year, which isn't a lot and could certainly end up being far less depending on whether or not this announcement refers to new funding or is simply a reallocation of existing funds.

Trudeau also announced several smaller space focused funding programs, including $150Mln CDN for a CSA administered Lunar Exploration Accelerator Program (LEAP) to assist small and medium Canadian enterprises (SMEs) to develop new AI, robotics, and health technology for use in lunar orbit and for a Junior Astronauts program.

The LEAP program is expected to appeal to the majority of Canadian space focused companies such as Bolton ON based Canadensys Aerospace, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia based Leap Biosystems, Moon Express Canada and others who aren't as politically well connected as Westminster CO based Maxar Technologies.

Although not noted explicitly during the press conference, Maxar's Brampton ON based MDA Space Systems subsidiary will almost certainly receive the lions share of the new funding as the prime contractor for the "3rd generation Canadarm" needed to support the Lunar Gateway.

In response to Trudeau's announcement, NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine issued this February 28th, 2019 NASA post, "Canada Commits to Joining NASA at the Moon," which called Canada:

... a vital ally in this lunar journey as they become the first international partner for the Gateway lunar outpost with their 24 year commitment to deep space exploration and collaboration.

Inflammatory twitter comment. Graphic c/o @Canadainspace.

As outlined on the February 28th, 2019 Justin Trudeau Prime Minister of Canada website post, "Historic investments in Canada’s space program to create jobs and new industries," Canada will:

... develop and contribute a smart robotic system – Canadarm3 – that will repair and maintain the Gateway. Canada’s partnership in the Gateway ushers in a new era of Canadian excellence in space, and will be the cornerstone of Canada’s new, ambitious space strategy. 

The Government of Canada will invest $2.05 billion over 24 years for Canada’s space program. This investment will create hundreds of good, well-paying jobs over the next ten years – from scientists and engineers to technicians and computer programmers – and will contribute $100 million annually to Canada’s gross domestic product.

The Canadarm program has historically served as a wedge for Canadian access into other facets of the US space program such as transportation to the ISS for Canadian astronauts and enjoys a wide, bipartisan support across party lines.

But some have already categorized the new funding as a political issue. For example, the February 28th, 2019 SpaceQ post, "Canada is Going to the Moon," categorized the Trudeau governments announcement as being:

... designed to send a message before the budget comes out on March 19. 

The commitment means that come election time, if the Liberals are not re-elected, that a plan and some funding will in place, making it harder to renege on the commitment."

SpaceQ is funded in large part through advertising revenue provided by Canadarm prime contractor  Maxar/ MDA.

With its strong Liberal party connections, it's also evidently in Maxar/MDAs best interest to suggest that politics is at the core of any positive government decision going into the next election. Maybe Spaceq is simply acting in the best interests of its sponsor instead of its readers.

And maybe SpaceQ has a point. As outlined most recently in the January 9th, 2019 post, "Why did Maxar Subsidiary SSL "Terminate" its Participation in the DARPA GEOsynchronous Satellite Servicing Program?," Maxar has been having troubles lately and is looking to the Trudeau government to commit to new funding for the Lunar Gateway program to pull its fat out of the fire.

On the other hand, Canada is now a preferred partner for the NASA program. Canadians can now lobby NASA to ask Canadian companies to contribute to the Lunar Gateway program and be funded by the Canadian government. Several companies have confirmed that NASA will soon begin asking for contributions which are completely independent from Maxar/MDA which relate to unmanned Lunar rovers and in-situ resource utilization.

It's useful to note that Trudeau finished up his Thursday morning press conference without being asked any questions on his space policy. He was instead asked questions relating to the SNC Lavalin affair. Maybe everything is indeed eventually boiled down to politics, especially when an election is expected in the fall.

Has the Trudeau government picked Maxar/MDA as the Canadian lottery winner for Canadian space funding for the foreseeable future?

We'll know more when the 2019 Budget is tabled in Parliament on March 19th.

Chuck Black.

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Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog. 

Innovation Minister Navdeep Bains Thinks He's Doing a Good Job

          By Henry Stewart

Sometime this week, the Canadian government is expected to release a 100-page report titled "Building a Nation of Innovators."

The report is intended to highlight the various policies, programs, plans and funding mechanisms the Federal department of Innovation, Science and Economic Development (ISED) has undertaken since 2015 in order to embrace innovative methodologies, digital technologies and artificial intelligence (AI) applications.

But it probably won't mention anything about Canada's space industry, which is a shame since the space industry is one of the drivers of innovation in the Canadian economy.

As outlined in the February 9th, 2019 Financial Post article, "The race to future-proof the economy: Navdeep Bains on the state of innovation in Canada," Innovation Minister Navdeep Bains is already providing a sneak peak at the contents of the report.

According to Bains:

...it’s a report card, because people need to know as a government you made promises, are you living up to those promises? And what does it mean to them, to their communities, for their own prospects and for their kids’ prospects? 

The speed and scope of change is phenomenal, and that creates anxiety and concerns that Canadians have. And we’re dealing with that and saying, look, we want you to succeed.

Front cover. Graphic c/o ISED.

The full interview is available online. The report is also expected to be available online and will likely be referenced at least once or twice during the upcoming Federal election in the fall of 2019.

The Innovation Minister wants to be judged by this report and by how he has succeeded in advocating for Canada's Innovation Agenda.

He's right. We should do this.

The policy was originally outlined on the July 26th, 2016 Federal Government website "Positioning Canada to Lead: An Inclusive Innovation Agenda."

Editors Note: The Federal government has released its report. 

As outlined in the February 12th, 2019 ISED press release, "Canada is building a nation of innovators," the report "presents the Government's progress in laying a solid foundation for Canada to remain competitive and for Canadians to succeed in the global economy." 

But it doesn't say much else. It spends most of its 100 pages talking about preliminary results and what could happen if the Liberals are allowed to carry through with their plans. 

There are a few mentions of the space industry, most notably on page 70, where the document states that "Canada can, and must, do a better job in unlocking the potential of its space sector for the benefit of Canadian businesses and society at large."

The complete report, under the title Building a Nation of Innovators, is available online so the curious can confirm the content for themselves.

_______________________________________________________________________

Henry Stewart is the pseudonym of a Toronto based aerospace writer.

UTIAS-SFL and Raytheon Canada Building Military Funded Spy Sats

          By Brian Orlotti

The University of Toronto’s Institute for Aerospace Studies (UTIAS) Space Flight Laboratory (SFL) has announced that it will develop three microsatellites to demonstrate ‘new’ air and maritime surveillance technology for Canada’s North.

As outlined in the February 1st, 2019 University of Toronto Engineering News post, "U of T Engineering researchers to design microsatellites for Arctic monitoring," the project, dubbed Gray Jay Pathfinder (GJP), is a partnership between UTIAS SFL, Woodbridge ON based Raytheon Canada and the Department of National Defence (DND).

Under the partnership, UTIAS SFL will build the GJP microsats while Raytheon Canada develops the onboard electronics.

The program is being funded as part of the DND’s All Domain Situational Awareness Science & Technology (ADSA S&T) program at a total of $46.2Mln CDN, with UTIAS SFL receiving $15Mln and Raytheon Canada getting $31.2Mln. The funding was allocated as part of 2018 Canadian Defence Budget, which provided a 70% increase in funding for Canada's military.

Raytheon Canada’s electronics will demonstrate a distinctly Canadian version of what most modern military knows as over-the-horizon radar (OTH). The Raytheon name for it is "Skywave radar technology" and many of the concepts surrounding it were discussed in the October 2006 Defence R&D Canada Technical Memorandum (TM 2006-285) titled, "A Canadian Perspective on High-Frequency Over-the-Horizon Radar," although the program was active in the 1980's.

Traditional radar systems are line-of-sight, meaning that they cannot detect objects beyond their horizon (typically a few hundred kilometres). Skywave radar overcomes this limitation by bouncing its signals off the ionosphere, increasing range to thousthe ands of kilometres.

OTH radar, first developed in the 1960’s, has been in use for decades by the major powers as well as smaller nations, including the US, Russia, France, China, Australia and Iran.

As outlined in the February 2nd, 2019 Canadian Defence Review post, "Canada Awards Contracts In Support of Arctic Surveillance," the Skywave/OTH radar technology will enable rapid detection and identification of surface and airborne targets, greatly enhancing the Canadian Forces’ situational awareness in the North.

In addition and as outlined in the post, "solutions achieved under the ADSA program will contribute to joint efforts between Canada and the United States to modernize elements of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD)."

The need to beef up Canada’s surveillance capabilities has been made more urgent in recent years by several factors;

• Severe gaps in Canada’s surveillance capabilities due to the failure of the Canadian military’s Northern Watch program, the recent outages of the RADARSAT-2 satellite (most recently as noted in the December 21st, 2018 post, "BREAKING NEWS: RADARSAT-2 Offline for Most of the Week. RADARSAT Constellation February 2019 Launch Date in Doubt") and delays to the RADARSAT Constellation Mission (RCM).

• Increased challenges to Canadian sovereignty as Arctic sea lanes see greater international traffic due to climate change-induced melting of polar ice.

• The increasingly hostile geopolitical environment, including renewed Cold War tensions following the US’ withdrawal from a key nuclear weapons treaty, the US/China trade war, and US belligerence towards Canada during the recent NAFTA renegotiation

Canada must overcome its peaceful complacency if it is to survive in an increasingly unstable world.

Brian Orlotti.

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Brian Orlotti is a network operator at the Ontario Research and Innovation Optical Network (ORION), a not-for-profit network service provider to the education and research sectors.

That Canadian Space Plan Where We Give Most of the Funding to a Failing, Foreign Owned Maxar is Dumb

          By Chuck Black

The next Federal budget will be announced within the next three months.

Over the last six months the Canadian space industry, publicly represented by the Aerospace Industries Association of Canada (AIAC) and the #DontLetGoCanada coalition, with funding and resources supplied through Westminster CO based Maxar Technologies, has been lobbying to "help secure our place in space" by committing several billion dollars from the upcoming 2019 Federal Budget to a "3rd generation" Canadarm. This new Canadarm would be built at Maxar's Brampton ON based MDA subsidiary, and provided as Canada's contribution to the proposed NASA Lunar Orbital Platform-Gateway (LOP-G).

The plan was pitched as a way to maintain access to the US space program and its opportunities in much the same way as the original Canadarm provided Canadian access to the International Space Station (ISS) and helped to build Canada's astronaut corps.

But now that Maxar stock has dropped off a cliff, as outlined in the January 7th, 2019 post. "Maxar Stock Drops to New Lows After DigitalGlobe Subsidiary Reports Loss of WorldView-4 Satellite," and its true fiscal situation is on the public record, the obvious question needs to be asked.

Is bailing out a virtually bankrupt, US based hodge-podge of independently failing and overly indebted businesses really the best way to "help secure Canada's place in space?"

This blog doesn't think so.

Maxar's current situation is certainly dire. As outlined in the January 9th, 2019 Motley Fool post, "Why Maxar Technologies Stock Bounced 13% This Morning," after "two straight days of relentless selling, Maxar Technologies (NYSE:MAXR) stock finally caught a break Wednesday" as short sellers closed out their positions and booked their profits.

That doesn't mean that the crisis has passed. It just means that there was no further bad news that day. As outlined in the post, Maxar is losing money and has a huge debt load:

The company carries $3.2Bln US ($5Bln CDN) in debt -- 8.5 times its $380Mln US ($503Mln CDN) market cap. 

With its earnings potential crimped by the loss of a satellite, and bankers still demanding their due, bankruptcy can't be ruled out as an end game for Maxar.

Maxar, as outlined in the December 20th, 2018 Maxar press release, "Maxar Technologies (MAXR) continues to explore range of strategic alternatives for its GEO communications satellite line," also originally promised "to make a decision on the future strategic direction of the GEO communications satellite business in due course and will provide an update to shareholders in early 2019," but that hasn't happened yet, either.

Before giving Maxar any more Canadian funds, we might want to at least wait and see what their plans are for the GEO satellite business.

The New York NY based Spruce Point Capital Management "attack" on Maxar Technologies, which began the run on Maxar stock, began with the August 7th, 2018 Spruce Point Capital press release, "Spruce Point Capital Management Releases a Strong Sell Forensic Research Opinion on Maxar Technologies Ltd. (NYSE / TSX: MAXR)." The full report is still online here on the Spruce Point website and it's well worth reading. Maxar's initial rebuttal to the Spruce Point report is included with the August 24th, 2018 Maxar press release, "Maxar Technologies Provides Comprehensive Response to Shareholders Following Misleading Short-Seller Campaign by Hedge Fund." Over time, the market decided to back the Spruce Point assessment and Maxar lost most of its share value. Graphic c/o Spruce Point. 

For now, it's just not reasonable for the Federal government to fund Maxar's as per its original plan which, as outlined in the September 18th, 2018 post, "Colorado Based Maxar/MDA Asking for $1-2Bln to Build Another Canadarm for the US LOP-G," was mostly only a request to hand over large sums of money and hope for the best.

As for the part where, as outlined in the November 15th, 2018 post, "Innovation Minister Navdeep Bains Politely Pushes NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine Under the Bus," senior elements of NASA and the Donald Trump Administration actively campaigned for Canadian funding to support a failing Maxar, this situation is also problematic from a political perspective.

But it might be a problem best dealt with another day.

And if we really want to build a new Canadarm for the US LOP-G, we could always find someone other than Maxar to build it.

That's certainly a sensible and reasonable piece of due diligence, at least until we know that Maxar isn't going bankrupt any time soon.

Chuck Black.

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Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog.

2018: The Year in Space for Canada

          By Chuck Black

Last January, no one would ever have thought that the big Canadian space story of 2018 would be the slow destruction of Westminster CO based Maxar Technologies' market valuation on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and its effect on Canada.

Maxar stock peaked with a January 4th, 2018 high of $65.25 US ($88.97 CDN) per share, then bottomed out with a December 24th, 2018 low of $9.55 US ($13.02) per share.

But while Maxar crashed and burned, a whole new generation of private sector, mostly Canadian owned and operated space focused firms quietly perfected their technology, slowly raised funds for expansion and painstakingly developed functional business plans.

Here's an overview of some of the important stories this blog has covered over the last year.

It's alliance with Dorval PQ based Bombardier Aerospace to turn Bombardier’s single-aisle C Series (now known as the Airbus A220) into a commercial success moved Ottobrunn Germany based Airbus Space and Defence into the front ranks of Canadian aerospace contractors and either saved or destroyed the Canadian aerospace industry, depending on who you're talking with. As outlined in the January 29th, 2018 post, "A Pyrrhic Victory for Bombardier," the year began with the successful dismissal of US trade sanctions. It ended with Bombardier selling off several business units and significant employee layoffs. As outlined in the December 20th, 2018 post, "Airbus Has Been in Canada for Thirty-Five Years and Wants to Increase its Contribution to Our Space Activities," Airbus finished out the year intending to utilize the good feelings flowing from the Canadian government because of the Bombardier partnership to grow its Canadian footprint. Graphic c/o Wendover Productions.

Maxar's strong start to the year was based on the perception (or presumption) that the Justin Trudeau Liberal government would follow through on the Federal Space Advisory Board (SAB) August 2017 preliminary report "Consultations on Canada’s future in space: What we heard," with enough new funding in the 2018 Federal Budget to finish the SAB report and light the way forward.

That final report, once written, was also expected to recommend at least one large new project with enough funding to keep Maxar happy, plus enough extra money to spread around to the rest of the space community to create the perception of a "balanced space program."

Three large projects were considered:

• Another Canadarm for the proposed US Lunar Orbital Platform-Gateway (LOP-G).

• Additional RADARSAT's for the RCM (up to three more satellites on top of the currently planned three).

• New funding for the proposed enhanced satellite communication project (ESCP), a long running Federal proposal to build a two node constellation of modified Molniya orbiting DND satellites.

However, and as outlined in the March 8th, 2018 post, "Space Advisory Board Chair Admits Disappointment over Budget but Promises to Continue to Support Space Sector," the new funding didn't materialize, and the SAB slowly slid into irrelevance.

By the October 15th, 2018 post, "The Federal Space Advisory Board (SAB) Insists that It's Working Hard," there wasn't really anything for the SAB members to do, except attend conferences and reminisce about what could be accomplished with additional government funding.

It certainly didn't help much that, as outlined in the the February 27th, 2018 Toronto Star post, "Budget boosts science research, grant funding," the 2018 Federal budget substantially increased direct government funding for fundamental research, an area of interest which mollified many of the CSA's traditional academic partners.

Maxar also had a tough year on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE), dropping from its January 3rd, 2018 high of $82.01 CDN to bottom out at $13.04 CDN on December 24th, 2018 before recovering slightly in time for the year end. As outlined in the October 05, 2017 post, "MDA Acquisition of DigitalGlobe Closes; New US Based Combined Company now called Maxar Technologies," Richmond BC based MacDonald Dettwiler (a Canadian based company with a lengthy history of prime contracting for major space focused Canadian Space Agency (CSA), military and government programs) reincorporated in 2017 as US based Maxar in order to obtain access to the lucrative US satellite and military market. But the bottom fell out of the US geosynchronous (GEO) satellite market and, while the new Maxar did begin picking up US military, NASA and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) contracts, Canada waffled over the political implications of providing new contracts for iconic Canadian technology to a US based firm. As outlined in the December 31st, 2018 CNW press release, "S&P Dow Jones Indices Announces Changes to the S&P/TSX Canadian Indices," the shareholders of Maxar eventually completed a planned US "domestication" and "approved a change of domicile for the company from Canada to the United States." Maxar stock "will be removed from all S&P/TSX indices where the stock is a constituent prior to the open of trading on Monday, January 7th, 2019." Graphic c/o TSE: MAXR.

The 2018 Federal Budget also allocated $100Mln Cdn for low Earth orbit (LEO) broadband initiatives, although most of that was expected to end up with Ottawa ON based Telesat, which made the original project proposal as part of its "2018 Federal Pre-Budget Submission" to the 2018 Pre-Budget Consultations in Advance of the 2018 Budget in the fall of 2017.

By April, and as outlined in the April 20th, 2018 post, "Telesat Moves Forward with New Offices, New Plans, New Challenges and New Funding," Telesat was accessing financing supplied through a $100Mln CDN pot allocated through the Federal Strategic Innovation Fund in the 2018 Federal budget and a $20Mln CDN direct contribution from the government of Ontario. Several billion more will be needed to complete the program but the existing funding was a good start.

The assistance of the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) will also help. As outline in the November 27th, 2018 Telesat press release, "DARPA Selects Telesat’s LEO System to Support DARPA’s Blackjack Program," DARPA is exploring the use of Telesat's LEO system for DoD’s future space-based communications requirements.

Maxar CEO Howard Lance in July 2018. Photo c/o @MaxarTech.

Another potential source of government funding, the $950Mln Federal government “superclusters” initiative, didn't break in Maxar's favor either.

As outlined in the February 16th, 2018 post, "Ottawa Announces Winners of $950Mln 'Supercluster' Competition," a proposal to build a smart agri-food supercluster (which included Maxar participation) didn't make the final cut. 

A second proposal from the Ottawa ON based Satellite Canada Innovation Network (SATCAN), originally discussed in the August 3rd, 2017 post, "Satellite Canada Applies for Innovation SuperCluster Funds," wasn't funded either.

But other space focused hi-tech firms and their proposals fared better. Groups which included PQ based ABB Canada, Kitchener ON based Clearpath Robotics, Ottawa ON based C-CORE, Burnaby BC based D-Wave Systems, Cambridge ON based exactEarth and Vancouver BC based Urthecast all received supercluster funding. 

Maxar, which wasn't included in any of the successful applications, didn't immediately panic.

As late as the March 7th, 2018 Space News post, "SpaceX, Trudeau Will Help Lift Satellite Maker Maxar Out of Its Slide, CEO Says," Maxar CEO Howard Lance was still prepared to tell anyone willing to listen that, while the bottom had fallen out of the US geosynchronous (GEO) satellite market (a major source of revenue for Palo Alto CA based Maxar subsidiary SSL, which focused on the manufacture of expensive, high-profit communications satellites) and Canadian deals weren't moving forward, the situation was only temporary.

The markets would improve and, as noted explicitly in the article, Lance expected Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to come to Maxar's rescue with a new, government funded space project tailored to Maxar strengths before the end of the year.

It was a quiet year. As outlined in the December 28th, 2018 CSA post, "Highlights of 2018," the Canadian Space Agency listed twelve highlights for the year. They included the January 20th, 2018 addition of a new hand for the Canadarm, the tenth anniversary of the Special Purpose Dexterous Manipulator (SPDM) or DEXTRE on the International Space Station (ISS), the May 5th, 2018 announcement of the participants in the Canadian CubeSat Project, the fifteenth anniversary of SCISAT,  the arrival of the OSIRIS-Rex spacecraft (with Canada’s critical laser altimeter) at asteroid Bennu and the December 3rd, 2018 departure of Canadian astronaut David Saint-Jacques for the ISS. Graphic c/o CSA.

But by August, and as outlined in the August 10th, 2018 post, "Maxar Technologies Might be Getting Paranoid," Trudeau still hadn't offered up any space funding. Some, including New York NY based Spruce Point Capital Management, were even beginning to question the fundamental assumptions which had until now supported the Maxar stock price.

Maxar needed to develop a more proactive approach.

With the assistance of the Ottawa ON based Aerospace Industries Association of Canada (AIAC) and, as outlined in the September 13th, 2018 post, "Dead Cat Bounce! New Canadian Space "Coalition" Wants Much the Same as Last Time, But With Money," Maxar created an entirely new, ostensibly independent, Federal government lobby group tasked with helping to secure Canada's "place in space."

Over the next several weeks, the underlying structure of the lobby group, known as the Don't Let Go Canada coalition was uncovered in several articles, most notably the September 18th, 2018 post, "Colorado Based Maxar/MDA Asking for $1-2Bln to Build Another Canadarm for the US LOP-G."

Bains with Bridenstine on November 14th. Photo c/o Alex Tétreault.

The coalition was organized by Maxar through its Ontario based MDA subsidiary and focused primarily on encouraging the Canadian government to fund a multi-billion dollar "3rd generation Canadarm" for the proposed US LOP-G.

According to several high-level sources within the Canadian space industry, certain NASA employees (including Bill Gerstenmaier, the NASA administrator for human exploration and operations) are working with senior members of the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), the Aerospace Industry Association of Canada (AIAC) space committee and Maxar/MDA to co-ordinate a campaign to encourage the Federal government to announce funding for Canada's contribution to the LOP-G program as early as this fall, if possible.

The article also noted that much of the planning for the campaign (and many of the organizational e-mails) originated from MDA director of public affairs Leslie Swartman. MDA, as the holder of many of the original Canadarm patents, would be first in line for any new Canadarm derived work and could reasonably be expected to make a substantial profit off the program.

The coalition campaign culminated in an unusual November 2018 public request from NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine for Canada to sign-on to the LOP-G program during a stage presentation at the 2018 Canadian Aerospace Summit, which was held in Ottawa ON on November 13th - 14th, 2018.

As outlined in the November 15th, 2018 post, "Innovation Minister Navdeep Bains Politely Pushes NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine Under the Bus," Federal Innovation Minister Navdeep Bains provided a very public "no" to the NASA Administrator on the same stage, later the same day.

By now, there wasn't a lot of fight left in Maxar.

As outlined in the November 1st, 2018 post, "Maxar Technologies Share Price Collapses After Q3 Earnings Report Released," its stock price had collapsed two weeks earlier due to revenue shortfalls caused by the very same ongoing GEOsat market collapse noted back in March.

In response to the stock collapse and as outlined in the December 6th, 2018 Space News post, "Maxar sells portion of SSL real estate," Maxar began selling off its real estate holdings in an effort to raise money.

It also raised "the maximum consolidated debt leverage ratio," just in case the property sales couldn't generate enough cash to pay down the Maxar debt left over from its initial acquisition of SSL and Westminster CO based DigitalGlobe, the 2017 acquisition which began the process which turned Burnaby BC based MacDonald Dettwiler into Colorado based Maxar.

Worst of all, and as outlined in the December 12th, 2018 Nasdaq post, "Maxar Technologies Ltd. (MAXR) Ex-Dividend Date Scheduled for December 13, 2018," was the cancellation of Maxar's quarterly dividend.  Reducing or cancelling the amount of dividend paid to shareholders normally makes them unhappy and sends the message that the company is not doing well financially.

As outlined in the December 21st, 2018 Street Insider post, "Maxar Technologies (MAXR) continues to explore range of strategic alternatives for its GEO communications satellite line," the company "also continues to be actively engaged with its customers to procure additional GEO satellite orders."

Even with that, it's expected that Maxar will eventually be forced to divest itself of major portions (if not all) of its SSL large satellite manufacturing business. Maxar has promised to announce a decision regarding the strategic direction of its GEO business in the new year.

At least one Canadian expatriate could claim to have had a good year. Cape Canaveral FL based Moon Express (ME) founder and CEO Robert D. Richards (shown here with CSA president Sylvain Laporte) returned to Canada to open a ME branch office and "explore options for collaboration with the CSA and Canada’s space sector on technologies and payloads for missions to the Moon." As outlined in the November 30th, 2018 post, "Procurement Contracts, Not Science or Engineering, Will Define the Next Generation of Robotics and Planetary Rovers," ME is one of nine "US based companies (which) are now eligible to bid on NASA delivery services to the lunar surface through a new Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program, a series of fixed price procurement contracts NASA will begin issuing in 2019 which are intended to facilitate the planned US return to the Moon." The program also has more than a passing resemblance to the very successful Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) fixed priced NASA program, which helped to turn Hawthorne CA based SpaceX into a titan of the NewSpace industry. Photo c/o ME.

Other Canadian companies have also had an adventurous year. They include:

• Waterloo ON based Skywatch Space Applications which as outlined in the February 1st, 2018 Skywatch press release, "SkyWatch Raises Seed Financing of $4Mln CDN [$3.2M US] to Bring Satellite Data to the Mass Market," raised enough seed funding to continue the development of its EarthCache platform for the aggregation and distribution of open sourced Earth image satellite data.

• Silicon Valley CA based Swarm Technologies, a communications start-up co-founded by four expatriates including Canadian born CEO Sara Spangelo which, as outlined in the March 12th, 2018 post, "Silicon Valley Company Co-owned and Run by a Canadian has Launched Four "Unauthorized" & "Dangerous" Pico-sats," launched four satellites in January 2018 without receiving permission from the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC). Curiously enough, the FCC didn't immediately shut down the company. As outlined in the December 21st, 2018 Fortune post, "How Satellite Startup Swarm Returned to Space After an Illicit Launch," the FCC instead allowed Swarm to continue launching satellites and demanded only a modest $900K US ($1.23Mln CDN) fine to forget about the whole incident.

• Vancouver BC based satellite imaging firm UrtheCast which, as outlined in the April 3rd, 2018 post, "Do the Bells Toll for UrtheCast? Q4 2017 Fiscal Report Shows Another Net Loss and Concern over Long-term Survival," also went through a spot of trouble in 2018 before settling down. Only two months later, and as outlined in the June 26th, 2018 post, "UrtheCast Shareholders Endorse the New Board," the situation seems to have stabilized although there is still much caution when it comes to predictions relating to the future. By September, as outlined in the September 24th, 2018 post, "With Stock Prices Rising, A New Board, New CEO and Secured Funding, UrtheCast Might Be Moving Forward," the crisis seemed to have passed. 

• The thirty seven organizations participating in the Canadian Cubesat Project which, as discussed in the May 7th, 2018 post, "Canadian Cubesat Project Finally Moving Forward," received Federal funding through fifteen grants of between $200,000 - $250,000 to post-secondary based teams attempting to build functioning cubesats for launch beginning in 2020.

• The thirty-three organizations which, as noted in the May 25th, 2018 post, "Canadian Space Agency Awards 33 Organizations $26.7Mln CDN Through STDP Program," received grants under the CSA's Space Technology Development Program (STDP) to generate "innovation to enhance the capabilities and competitiveness of Canada's space sector." The funded organizations even included Toronto ON based Continuum Aerospace, which received $200,000 CDN for an "additively manufactured high-impulse cooled chemical thruster for cubeSats and microsats." Continuum was first profiled in the April 22nd, 2016 post, "2009 Canadian Space Agency Report on Indigenous Canadian Launcher said "Yes!" But CSA Didn't Move Forward," for a report it wrote in 2009 to assess Canada's capacity to create and support small domestic rocket launchers.

• Montreal PQ based GHGSat which, as outlined in the September 28th, 2018 post, "GHGSat Raises $10Mln US in Series A2 Financing; Gains Access to Worlds Largest Oil and Gas Customers," raised over $20Mln US ($26Mln CDN  to build and launch two more satellites similar in function to the first GHGSat-D (demonstration) greenhouse gas monitoring satellite the company launched in 2016.

• Montreal PQ based Northstar Earth and Space which, as outlined in the November 16th, 2018 post, "A $52Mln CDN Financing Deal for Northstar Earth and Space Inc.," received funding for the development of "a global environment information platform which will transform humanity's ability to manage our impact on Earth and its natural resources," only one day after Innovation Minister Bains rejected the NASA Administrator Bridenstine's offer to announce participation (and funding) for a Canadian contribution to the US LOP-G.

• The eight Canadian companies (including Maxaar subsidiary MDA) receiving multiple contracts totaling $6.7Mln CDN through the Department of National Defence (DND) to develop "situational awareness" applications focused around the analysis and assessment of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data-sets generated from Canada's Radarsat program. As outlined in the December 17th, 2018 post, "New Radarsat R&D Funding is Mostly for Software Analytics But Includes Some Interesting Surprises," the DND contracts were structured as public private partnerships with costs split 50-50 between DND and the various private sector participants. 

In 2018, other Federal government departments and private sector organizations explored the use of space based assets to solve Earth based problems. The June 8th, 2018 post, "NRCan Explores Space Mining," covered the Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) initiative for input on space mining as part of its process to develop a new Canadian Minerals and Metals Plan (CMMP). The October 25th, 2018 post, "A White Paper on the "Case for a Global Telemedicine Vehicle Network," noted Ottawa ON based C-COM Satellite Systems concern over a global lack of local health care resources and addressed the challenge using modern telemedicine and telecommunications technologies. By the end of the year, and as outlined in the December 6th, 2018 post, "Space Mining and Innovation Should Be Encouraged Through the Tax Code, According to NRCan and CATA Alliance," both NRCan and the Ottawa ON based Canadian Advance Technology Alliance (CATA Alliance) were suggesting that the best way to encourage innovative new space technologies was through the tax code and not via direct government grants. Graphic c/o Planetary Resources.

Some Canadian based firms attempted to overcome challenges related to perception and politics.

As outlined in the April 13th, 2018 post, "Ukrainian Rockets Like the Cyclone 4M Are Too Dangerous an Investment for Western Interests: Kyiv Post," Nova Scotia based Maritime Launch Services (MLS), a joint venture of three US based firms attempting to open a East Coast based launch facility for Ukrainian built Cyclone 4M rocket, spent most of the year scrambling to raise funds and convince the Federal government that they had a plan worth supporting. 

By spring, as outlined in the May 25th, 2018 post, "Maritime Launch Services Will Not Say When It Will Begin Building Proposed Canso NS Commercial Spaceport," the wind had gone out of the sails of the project, even as MLS left the door open for other rockets to launch at the proposed facility. 

To its credit, MLS noted quite correctly in its August 2018 "Submission to the Standing Committee on Finance" for the 2019 Pre-Budget Consultations in Advance of the 2019 Budget that its very difficult to get a launch licence in Canada and the regulations governing this activity should be revised. 

In essence, and without substantially revised legislation, no one will ever be able to launch an orbital rocket from Canadian soil. Here's hoping that changes in 2019.

Inuvik based satellite receivers, built almost three years ago, are unusable today, after the failure of multiple attempts to fulfill Canadian government licencing requirements. Photo c/o Rolf Skatteboe.

Another group with problems over existing Canadian legislation governing space activities was the entire town of Inuvik NWT. 

As outlined in the March 5th, 2018 post, "That Commercial Ground Station Built by New North Networks in Inuvik Still Can't be Used," a local company attempting to fulfill a contract for the European Space Agency (ESA), an international organization which includes the CSA as a "co-operating" member, was unable to do so, even after an almost three year wait, because of Federal government delays in providing the appropriate permits and approvals. 

According to the article:

From a legal standpoint, the existing barriers favor legacy players, such as the Federal government owned Inuvik Satellite Station Facility (ISSF), administered by the Canada Centre for Mapping and Earth Observation and part of Natural Resources Canada (CCMEO/NRCan), which opened in 2010 and is the only other ground station in the region

Eventually, as outlined in the May 31st, 2018 post, "Inuvik Mayor Calls Feds "Not Forthcoming" Regarding Private Sector Commercial Ground Station Application," even Inuvik Mayor Jim McDonald weighed in on the situation.

Over the summer, as outlined in the June 21st, 2018 post, "The Special Senate Committee on the Arctic Holds a Hearing on Northern Infrastructure & That "Unlicensed" Inuvik Groundstation," Senate hearings were held on the issue, but nothing ever came of it.

A year-end announcement by Seattle WA based Amazon may have rendered the whole issue mute.

As outlined in the December 03, 2018 post, "The New Amazon Web Services Ground Station (AWSGS) Will Disrupt Existing Ground Stations," a new "cloud-based product offering scalable computing power for satellite ground stations and data processing," using "Amazon’s current AWS cloud computing infrastructure." is likely only the latest step in rolling out of new, lower cost, satellite services to the public.

So what's going to happen next year in space for Canada? To find out, check out future editions of the Commercial Space blog.

Chuck Black.

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Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog.