Generalists, Data Miners, Lotteries, Comedy, Open Access and the Future of Science in Canada

          By Chuck Black

Want to learn about the future of science in Canada? Then check out the 2nd Annual Canadian Science Policy Award of Excellence for Youth, which was presented by Federal Science Minister Kirsty Duncan at the 8th Canadian Science Policy Conference (CSPC2016) in Ottawa on November 10th, 2016.

Science Minister Duncan at CSPC 2016 in Ottawa. As outlined in the November 10th, 2016 transcript of her speech under the title, "Minister Duncan Reflections: One Year as Minister of Science," much work has occurred over the past year "to rebuild the government’s respect for and trust in our scientists," but much remains to be done. Items still on the table include addressing "the gaps in equity and diversity in the sciences," plus the appointment of a Federal Chief Science Advisor, tasked to become "a strong, enduring voice for science and scientists in government." Photo c/o author.

As outlined in the undated CSPC press release on the "2nd Annual Science Policy Award of Excellence - Youth Category," the award recognizes people under the age of 35, whether student, postdoctoral fellow, researcher, entrepreneur or from some other area, who have developed "an innovative and compelling evidence-based policy that will make a positive difference to Canadians."

The award is designed to encourage young people "who may not currently be studying, or working on, public policy to develop and share their policy ideas."

Amani Saini. Photo c/o CSPC.

And here's where it gets interesting. This year's prize winner doesn't really even consider herself a scientist, at least not in the traditional sense.

As outlined in the press release, prize winner Amani Saini holds a master of public administration degree from Dalhousie University and a bachelor’s degree in political science from the University of British Columbia (UBC). In essence, science:

... was never her forte and she tried her best to avoid science classes, but the near death of her sister forced her to start searching for solutions to prevent adverse drug reactions. 

After she came across an article about genomics, a topic she knew absolutely nothing about before, she contacted scientists in Canada and worldwide to learn more about the discipline and DNA sequencing. 

She took her findings to scientists and pharmacists at UBC and found that there is a solution to adverse drug reactions that could be potentially feasible in Canada, which she has been advocating for since.

In essence, Saini was a generalist able to synthesize disparate silos of knowledge into something useful. As outlined in the CSPC press release:

The governments of the U.S. and the U.K. have already shown incredible support for the increased use of genomics to guide health decisions. In 2015, President Obama announced $215 million to fund the creation of a national research program to sequence DNA to identify the genetic drivers of diseases.  

In order to continue to be a world leader in health and technology, the Canadian government should take on a similar national approach.

Saini also has other interests. OpenCanada.org lists her as a "Weapons control and genocide prevention advocate." She has also worked with the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs (CIJA), a national, non-partisan, non-profit organization, representing the perspectives of 150,000 Canadian Jews.

"Sucker Bait," a 1954 novella by Isaac Asimov, postulated a "mnemonic service," composed of individuals who had been trained from the age of five to memorize and correlate vast amounts of information and synthesize the data into a coherent whole. The theme of the story is the peril of scientific overspecialization, a theme Asimov would revisit numerous times during his career. Graphic c/o Atomic Rockets. 

Both runners-up also possess a broad, almost generalist range of experience and expertise which they used to develop practical and useful policies.

Runner-up Robert Gooding-Townsend suggested, "Using a Modified Lottery to Select Among Meritorious Grant Applications." He is a graduate student in mathematical biology at the University of Waterloo, where he studies large-scale forest dynamics and the sociology of science. He is perhaps best known for his interdisciplinary background in bio-engineering, museum exhibit design, and science comedy – including a performance at the 7th Canadian Science Policy Conference (CSPC 2015), which was held from November 25th - 27th, 2015 in Ottawa, Ontario.

Runner-up Jessica Ross proposed "Rethinking Phosphorus: Contaminant or Commodity? Securing Food for Our Future," and studied chemistry at Simon Fraser University from 2001-2003 before joining the military, where she earned her bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering from the Royal Military College of Canada in 2007.

In fact, CSPC 2016 spent more than its fair share of time assessing the context of science and how to push scientific facts and discoveries into the broader public awareness through the development of useful public and science policy.

It included sessions on evidence based decision making (a program, practice, or policy grounded in the best available research and relevant contextual evidence), building open access science portals (using research free from restrictions on access and use), utilizing science diplomacy (scientific collaborations among nations to address common problems and to build constructive international partnerships), mentoring the next generation of scientific talent and understanding Canada's new innovation agenda, at least as outlined by the currently governing Federal Liberal party.

Of course, not all participants attended all the sessions. As one who attended only the "2016 Canadian Space Policy Symposium" session at CSPC 2016 said:

We only discussed a very narrow range of topics related to specific upcoming events and capabilities at our session. No one discussed collaborations or any practical methodologies or plans to move forward with the promotion of our areas of concern.

We've always asked the politicians to develop policies for us!

Perhaps that's the real incentive to check out the science minister's speech, the annual Canadian Science Policy Award of Excellence for Youth and maybe a few of the other sessions when the 9th Canadian Science Policy Conference (CSPC 2017) reconvenes on March 1st - 3rd. 2017 in Ottawa, Ontario.

Chuck Black.

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Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog.

MacDonald Dettwiler, Chinese Rockets, SpaceX, the X-37B and the EmDrive

          By Henry Stewart

Here are a few of the stories currently being tracked by the Commercial Space Blog:

MDA HQ in Richmond, BC. Photo c/o T-Net.

• New Macdonald Dettwiler (MDA) CEO Howard Lance is evidently off to a slow start, but it's not his fault. As outlined in the November 2nd, 2016 Space News post, "Canada’s MDA says commercial satellite market shows unexpected softness," the Canadian satellite builder and geospatial-services provider has "pulled back from earlier optimistic assessments of the global commercial telecommunications satellite business," saying strong customer interest in new satellites was not translating into contracts. According to Lance, 2016 will end with no more than around 16 orders, similar to 2015, but well down from the historical average of around 20 satellites. 

Lance made the comments during the quarterly investor conference call on November 1st, 2016. Consolidated revenues for the quarter were down slightly to $495.9Mln CDN compared to $515.4Mln CDN for the same period of 2015. The decrease reflected lower revenues from communications business line, partially offset by higher revenues from the surveillance and intelligence business lines.

Of course, things aren't all bad. As outlined in the November 1st, 2016 MDA press release, "MDA reports third quarter 2016 results, declares quarterly dividend," MDA continued to make "substantive progress to obtain facility security clearance for its operations in California, through which the Company can effectively pursue and execute the broad range of U.S. government contracts including defence and intelligence work. In addition to investments in organizational and required regulatory structure, the Company has also started building out a government business development and management team."

MDA has also "declared a quarterly dividend of $0.37 per common share payable on December 30, 2016 to shareholders of record at the close of business on December 15th, 2016."

• China has launched the most powerful space rocket it has ever built from a base on southern Hainan Island. As outlined in the November 3rd, 2016 South China Morning Post article, "Launch of China’s most powerful rocket helps Beijing close gap with US," the Long March CZ-5 blasted off from the Wenchang space launch base at 8.43pm on Thursday.

According to the article, "the CZ-5 belongs to a new generation of rockets that will be used in China’s future space projects," including lunar and Martian exploration programmes.

The Long March 5 is planned to roughly match the capabilities of the United Launch Alliance (ULA) Delta IV heavy rocket.

• SpaceX Falcon-9 rockets are expected to return to flight beginning in mid-December following a launch pad accident two months ago. As outlined in the November 7th, 2016 Mail Online post, "SpaceX to return to flight next month as Elon Musk claims firm has 'got to the bottom' of Falcon 9 explosion," the cause of the accident was determined to be "a fueling system issue that inadvertently produced solid oxygen inside the rocket's upper stage tank." According to the article, "the oxygen then reacted with a carbon composite bottle containing liquid helium that sits inside the oxygen tank, triggering an explosion."

The company currently has a backlog of about 70 missions, worth more than $10Bln USD ($13.4Bln CDN). 

• The International Business Times is reporting that the US Air Force is currently testing out a version of the EmDrive electromagnetic microwave thruster on the X-37B unmanned military space plane, while the Chinese government has made sure to include the EmDrive on its orbital space laboratory Tiangong-2. 

As outlined in the November 7th, 2016 International Business Times post, "Space race revealed: US and China test futuristic EmDrive on Tiangong-2 and mysterious X-37B plane," China and the US both have a vested interest in the EmDrive.

In a separate report, the results of NASA's earlier tests on the EmDrive have been leaked, and they seem to reveal that the controversial propulsion system really does work.

As outlined in the November 7th, 2016 Science Alert post, "Leaked NASA paper shows the 'impossible' EM Drive really does work," the drive "is capable of generating impressive thrust in a vacuum (without fuel), even after error measurements have been accounted for."

The full paper is now available online under the title, "Measurement of Impulsive Thrust from a Closed Radio Frequency Cavity in Vacuum."

The EmDrive, also known as the Cannae drive, was last profiled in the September 6th, 2016 post, "'Impossible' Cannae Drive Will Sink or Swim on Proposed Demonstration Flight." 

For more, check out upcoming editions of the Commercial Space blog.
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Henry Stewart is the pseudonym of a Toronto based aerospace writer.

There's Gold in Them Thar Roids!

          By Brian Orlotti

Two NewSpace firms have recently revealed specific target asteroids for visits by prospecting spacecraft. Locked within these objects is colossal, game-changing wealth.

As outlined in the November 2nd, 2016 Visual Capitalist post, "There’s Big Money to Be Made in Asteroid Mining," the value of "many asteroids are measured in the quintillions of dollars, which makes the market for Earth’s annual production of raw metals – about $660 billion per year – look paltry in comparison." Graphic c/o Wired.

Two recently-formed space mining companies, Redmond, Washington based Planetary Resources and Mountain View, California based Deep Space Industries are focusing on near-Earth asteroids (those that orbit in close proximity to Earth), as the easiest to access in the near-term. Both companies view the tapping of asteroid resources as the key to building space-based infrastructure (fuel depots, space stations, power plants) and enabling off-world manufacturing, expanding Earth’s economy into the solar system.

As outlined in the November 2nd, 2016 Visual Capitalist post, "There's big money to be made in asteroid mining," about 15,000 such objects have been discovered. Planetary Resources has publicly identified eight of these as potential targets. Deep Space Industries claims to be targetting six.

NASA has estimated that the roughly 2 million asteroids in the belt between Mars and Jupiter contains some $700 quintillion (7 followed by 20 zeroes) USD worth of resources, including platinum, gold, iron, nickel, water and other elements. Such colossal wealth ($100Bln USD for every human on Earth) utterly dwarfs Earth’s $600Bln USD annual mining output. Also, as the need to dig deeper into the Earth drives up the cost of terrestrial mining ventures, investors have become increasingly open to the idea of off-world mining.

A listing of high value asteroid materials and their relative abundance relative to the Earth's crust created by the marketing department at Planetary Resources. As outlined in the   November 10th, 2016 Your Mining News post, "Planetary Resources and the government of Luxembourg announce €25 million investment and cooperation agreement," the company recently entered into an agreement with Luxembourg and the Société Nationale de Crédit et d’Investissement (SNCI) in order to "accelerate the company’s technical advancements with the aim of launching the first commercial asteroid prospecting mission by 2020." The asteroid mining startup also backed by Google co-founder Larry Page. Graphic c/o Sagan*Sense.

Newspace mining firms’ focus on easily accessible near-Earth asteroids, rather than those in the Mars-Jupiter belt makes sense as a first step toward proving the viability of asteroid mining.

However, such a path may not provide an immediate economic payoff. Most near-Earth target asteroids identified thus far are less than 300 m in diameter. Moreover, even if these first steps are successful, large-scale mining will require specialized robotics and spacecraft not yet in existence.

However, the space mining and terrestrial mining industries have similarities that bode well for the future. Both types of mining require large capital expenditures and years (or decades) of lead time before profitability. Fundamentally, mining, be it on Earth or the asteroid belt, is a long game. With this in mind, its is reasonable to forsee space mining eventually attracting the same level of investment now found in terrestrial mining.

Space mining may one day allow humans to tap gargantuan wealth that could profoundly change human life. Firms like Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industries are now blazing a trail toward that change, though this trail may take some time to traverse.

As the Chinese sage Lao Tzu said, a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.

Brian Orlotti.

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Brian Orlotti is a regular contributor to the Commercial Space blog.

A Lot of Organizations are Looking for Funding for Mars Research

          By Chuck  Black

Bolstered by recent SpaceX announcements that the company will soon begin developing the technology and infrastructure necessary to support future Mars missions and follow-up statements of support from US space agency NASA, a variety of academics and entrepreneurs have begun pitching their expertise in the Martian environment.

One of those organisations is the Canadian Space Agency (CSA).

The CSA Mars Exploration Science Rover (MESR). As outlined on the CSA MESR website, "the six-wheeled rover can carry a robotic arm equipped with a microscope and mini-corer to drill into rocks, take sample and perform analysis of rocks using its high definition microscope instrument." The rover was built under contract to the CSA by MacDonald Dettwiler (MDA), using a variety of partners and subcontractors including Bombardier Recreational Products (BRP), the University of Toronto Institute of Aerospace Studies (UTIAS) Autonomous Space Robotics Lab (ASRL) and Space Flight Laboratory (SFL), the University of Western Ontario, McGill University, Memorial University, Brock University, York University, the University of Winnipeg and Turquoise Technology. To see the full video on the MESR, simply click on the graphic above. Screenshot c/o CSA.

Its mission is a difficult one. As outlined in the November 2nd, 2016 AM980 post, "Western Students Partner With Canadian Space Agency To Return To Mars–Almost," students and researchers "from campuses across the country have teamed up for a public demonstration of their capabilities" in Utah, which is thought to have a similar surface structure to that of Mars. The simulation will run until November 18th.

As outlined in the October 31st, 2016 Spaceref.ca post, "Canadian Researchers Aim to Be Ready When the International Space Community Embarks on a Mars Sample Return Mission," the Mars Sample Return Analogue Mission (CanMars2016) annually brings together "over 50 scientists and engineers from across Canada and international collaborators from the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom" to test the Mars Exploration Science Rover (MESR).

Of course, as outlined in the September 26th, 2016 post, "The REAL Reason Why Canada Won't Be Participating in the NASA Resolve Mission Anytime Soon, Probably!," the CSA has been looking for funding and partners for a planetary rover mission since Marc Garneau was CSA president in the early 2000's.

In the 2009 - 2010 federal budget, $110Mln CDN was allocated over three years "for space robotics research and development," much of which quickly ended up funding research on various Canadian rover designs, including the MESR.

But none of that money was ever allocated for "full life cycle funding," which covers an actual mission. For the CSA to be able to do anything more than continue testing its rovers in an Earth analogue, it needs more funding.

NASA AMES graphic showing a "Red Dragon" Mars sample return mission using SpaceX derived hardware. As outlined in the April 26th, 2016 Popular Mechanics post, "SpaceX Announces a 2018 Mission to Mars," the plan "was to have the Red Dragon capsule pick up samples gathered by the Mars 2020 rover and bring them back to Earth. A potential Red Dragon sample return would launch on a SpaceX Heavy Falcon rocket, descend to the Martian surface using onboard thrusters, grab samples from an existing rover with a robotic arm, and launch those samples back to Earth in a Mars ascent vehicle contained within the capsule." Graphic c/o NASA AMES.

And here's where the real problem begins. There are a lot of organisations and agencies with the capacity to build simulated Martian missions similar to what the CSA has been doing for the last few years.

The November 5th, 2016 Miami Herald post, "Researchers training in Hawaii to simulate Mars mission" describes a very similar mission "to develop protocols that would be used on a real Mars mission to identify and protect samples that could host life." The program is part of the Biologic Analog Science Associated with Lava Terrains (BASALT) project, which is funded through the NASA Planetary Science & Technology Through Analog Research (PSTAR) program

For those who would enjoy a trip to Poland, the Space Generation Advisory Council (SGAC) is preparing to conduct a Mars analog simulation mission in Poland during 2017. SGAC is a global non-governmental, non-profit (US 501(c)3) organisation which aims to represent university students and young space professionals to the United Nations, space agencies, industry, and academia.

More Mars analog missions will pop up if new money from SpaceX, NASA and the international community becomes available. The specialized expertise required to operate rovers has also become more widely available and less costly since CSA began its development work 15 years ago.

Here's hoping that the CSA's current expertise remains relevant.

Chuck Black.

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Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog.

Thirty Meter Telescope Builders Choose Alternative Site To Mauna Kea In Hawaii

          By Henry Stewart

Reuters has reported that the team behind the Thirty Metre Telescope (TMT) has chosen La Palma, the most westerly of the Canary Islands off the coast of Morocco, as the primary alternative to its originally planned TMT construction site in Hawaii.

Protesters during the first of many blockades which started at the Mauna Kea visitors center and were intended to stop construction of the TMT. Photo Holly Johnson/Hawaii Tribune-Herald via AP.

As outlined in the October 31st, 2016 Reuters post, "Telescope group chooses Canary Islands as alternative to Hawaii," the decision "follows opposition from Native Hawaiians and environmentalists" to the original plans for constructing the TMT at the Maunakea volcano on Hawaii's Big Island.

In an October 31st, 2016 TMT press release under the title "Statement Regarding Selection of Alternate Site for TMT," quoted Henry Yang, the chair of the TMT International Observatory Board as saying:

After careful deliberation, the Board of Governors has identified Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos (ORM) on La Palma in the Canary Islands, Spain as the primary alternative to Hawaii. 

Maunakea continues to be the preferred choice for the location of the Thirty Meter Telescope, and the TIO Board will continue intensive efforts to gain approval for TMT in Hawaii. TIO is very grateful to all of our supporters and friends throughout Hawaii, and we deeply appreciate their continued support.

As outlined in the December 6th, 2015 post, "Hawaii Supreme Court Rescinds Permit to Build Thirty Meter Telescope," the Hawaiian state supreme court rescinded the TMT construction permits in December 2015, after local protests erupted.

On October 20th, 2016 the Hawaii Department of Land and Natural Resources opened a new set of hearings on the project, with a retired judge overseeing those proceedings. Of course, if those new hearings don't go well, the TMT now has a potential new location.

Overview of the TMT. Graphic c/o Lance Hayashida/ Caltech.

The project has a number of Canadian connections.

• As outlined in the October 10th, 2016 TMT press release, "Dynamic Structures is awarded $10 million contract award for final design phase of Thirty Meter Telescope Enclosure," BC based Dynamic Structures is involved in the design and construction of the TMT enclosure. 

• As outlined in the April 6th, 2016 CBC News post, "Canada finally commits its share of funds for Thirty Meter Telescope," the project has received "up to $243.5Mln in funding over 10 years" from the Canadian government.

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Henry Stewart is the pseudonym of a Toronto based aerospace writer.

Is Bombardier Another Example of a Company Unable to Find Success in Canada?

          By Brian Orlotti

Almost a year into the Federal governments mandate, the financial and corporate problems surrounding Montreal, PQ based Fortune 500 multinational Bombardier Inc. do not seem any nearer to a solution despite sales and the slow production ramp up of its CSeries commercial aircraft.

As outlined in the October 29th, 2016 Motley Fool post, "Bombardier Looks for CSeries Jet Orders: Can It Land Spirit Airlines?," the struggling aircraft manufacturer finally met its long-standing goal of lining up 300 firm orders for its brand-new CSeries jet earlier this year. The orders should fill its production capacity from now until 2020, when production ramp-up is expected to be complete. But the early sales have been heavily discounted and Bombardier has announced that it would record a special "onerous contract" charge of about $500Mln CDN to account for the discounts. The company now has to survive until 2020 when the discounted planes are completed and the company can begin to generate profit with new orders. Photo c/o Delta Airlines.

As outlined in the October 21st, 2016 Financial Post article, "Bombardier Inc announces second mass layoff this year — eliminating 7,500 jobs globally, 2,000 in Canada," the sputtering aerospace giant will eliminate 7,500 jobs (over 10 per cent of its global workforce), including 2,000 jobs in Canada. These layoffs are in addition to the 7,000 job cut announced last February.

Two-thirds of this workforce reduction will come from Bombardier’s rail systems division, while the rest will come from its aerospace branch. The company claims that the layoffs will be partially offset by its “strategic hiring” of 3,700 new employees to support the ramp-up of the CSeries jets and the new Global 7000 business jet, scheduled to enter service in 2018.

The layoffs are projected to save Bombardier $300Mln USD (400Mln CDN) a year by the end of 2018 and are part of the company’s five-year plan to improve revenue, margins and free cash flow by 2020. In addition, the CS100 airliner began commercial flights with its first customer, Swiss International Air Lines AG this past summer, with the larger CS300 due to enter service before year’s end.

The company has also secured CSeries sales to two major customers: Air Canada and Delta Air Lines Inc (though at industry-rumoured massive discounts).

Bombardier isn't just designing and rolling out the CSeries. As seen in the graphic above, the Bombardier Global 7000 and 8000 series of long range, high performance business jets, are also on the drawing board. The aircraft, originally designed for roll-out in 2016-2017 but currently delayed until 2018 or later, will be sold much like the CSeries, with early orders heavily discounted to help ramp-up sales and production capacity. This likely means a second "onerous contract" charge to cover the losses expected early in the Global 7000/8000 production ramp-up sometime around 2018/19, which will only be offset by the sale of profitable aircraft after many years of production.  Image c/o Bombardier.

The company’s woes continue, however, including CSeries production delays due to issues at its engine supplier, a global slowdown in demand for business jets and ongoing (and well-publicized) production problems at its rail systems division. On top of all this, Bombardier continues to carry over $9Bln USD ($12Bln CDN) in debt.

Having already received $1Bln CDN in funding from the province of Quebec as well as $1.5Bln CDN from Quebec’s pension fund, Bombardier earlier this year requested an additional $1Bln CDN from the federal government. As outlined in the October 11th, 2016 Financial Post article, "Federal Liberals signal desire for ‘meaningful investment’ in Bombardier but avoid dollar amount," the Trudeau government has not provided this funding but continues paying lip service to the idea, with the caveat of preserving Canadian jobs as a prerequisite for any deal.

As the corporate bloodletting continues, Bombardier’s future seems anything but clear. Canada has a history of difficulties keeping large high tech companies in business and Canadian. Only time will tell if Bombardier ends up being an exception to the general pattern of the RIM's, Nortel's, Avro's and Spar Aerospace's which came before.

Bombardier shares currently stand at $1.78 CDN each.

Brian Orlotti.

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Brian Orlotti is a regular contributor to the Commercial Space blog.

"Super" Flow Through Tax Shares & Why Space Companies Need Them

          By Chuck Black

The Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) has begun its annual public lobbying effort to insure that Canada’s mineral exploration tax credit (METC), a program formerly known as the investment tax credit for exploration (ITCE) and more generally as the "super" flow-through shares (FTS) program, remains a part of Canada's tax code for another fiscal year.

While Canada might not understand the functional similarities between mining and space activities, other countries certainly do. As outlined in the October 26th, 2015 post, "Say Hello to the New US Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act," the US government recently defined and codified the ability of individuals and the private sector to stake claims over space based assets in a manner consistent with existing US mining law, which should give US based companies such as Deep Space Industries and Planetary Resources a "first mover" competitive advantage in the new industry. As outlined in the February 3rd, 2016 Space News post, "Luxembourg to invest in space-based asteroid mining," Luxembourg has announced similar measures. Graphic c/o Planetary Resources.

As outlined on the PDAC website, super flow through shares help the Canadian mining industry to self-fund projects and grow smaller companies. Canada has one of the largest global mining supply sectors with more than 3,700 companies supplying engineering, geotechnical, environmental, financial and other services to mining operations. These firms contributed $57Bln CDN to Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014. according to the Mining Facts website.

But the mining industry also possesses more than a passing resemblance to the much smaller Canadian space industry (200 companies contributing $3.3Bln in 2013 according to the the Space Economy at a Glance 2014). Both possess inherent risks, require high-up front costs, and have long lead times before any return on investment could reasonably be expected. And both engage in resource exploitation.

Would the space industry benefit from the same taxation regime which has benefited the mining industry?

The first peer reviewed paper to make an explicit, demonstrated and causal connection between mining and space activities was the 2005 paper “Historical Investment Financing of Exploration for New Worlds, Current Analogies to Other Industries, and Ideas for the Future,” which was initially presented at the 7th International Lunar Conference in September 2005 and then revised for presentation at the 25th Annual International Space Development Conference (ISDC 2006) in May 2006.

A 2008, a second paper, initially presented at the 2008 Canadian Space Summit under the title, “Creating A Robust Canadian Space Research Exploration & Development Industry - The Canadian Mineral Industry Flow-Though Share Analog,” made explicit the causal connections between the successful Canadian mining industry and specific Canadian tax code provisions. As outlined in the paper, other industries, such as the space industry, could use the concept of flow through shares to mitigate the investment risk traditionally associated with taking a speculative position in junior companies.

The PDAC webpage focused around "super" flow through shares, highlighting the PDAC pre-budget submission for Budget 2017, along with case studies and an overview of their effect on the mining industry. As outlined in the May 17th, 2004 Northern Miner post, "Flow-through shares: a history," the concepts behind flow through tax credits have been around for 50 years and are well known. They're intended specifically to reduce "the risk for investors, thereby encouraging them to take a speculative position in junior companies." This is the opposite of  traditional methodologies used to grow the Canadian space industry, which focus around "capacity building" or the creation of one or two large firms, through the use of selective government contracts and funding. Screen shot c/o PDAC.

By 2012 the Canadian Space Commerce Association (CSCA) felt comfortable enough with the concept of super flow through tax credits to include a request for them among the recommendations it presented to the David Emerson led Aerospace Review. 

As outlined in part two of the three part CSCA submission under the title, "Using Tools from the Mining Industry to Spur Innovation and Grow the Canadian Space Industry," Canada "has unparalleled expertise in all areas of terrestrial mining and this expertise has been developed through a national tax and legal infrastructure which helps to fund new start-ups and grow existing players."

The submission went on to say that, "a similar tax and legal framework would allow our indigenous space sector to self fund exploration, innovation and development in the very same way that those equivalent terrestrial functions are currently self funded in the Canadian mining industry."

Since then, although other nations (such as the US and Luxembourg) have begun to make the connections between mining, exploration and space, nothing further has happened in Canada. 

Here's hoping the situation changes soon. 

Canada needs more discussion on how to expand our space activities through self-funding and less discussion on "capacity building," or "collaborating," or contributing components for projects designed and led by others.

Chuck Black.

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Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog. He also wrote the second of three CSCA submissions to the 2012 Emerson Aerospace Review.

Schiaparelli Goes Splat!

          By Brian Orlotti

The Schiaparelli Entry, Descent and Landing Demonstrator Module (EDM), a joint mission of the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Russian space agency Roscosmos, has apparently crashed on Mars and its wreckage has been located.

As outlined in the October 21st, 2016 Universe Today post, "Schiaparelli is gone, Smashed on to the Surface of Mars," the Schiaparelli lander "hit the ground hard and may very well have exploded on impact." Photo's from the US Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter taken before and after Schiaparelli's decent, suggest a very hard landing "following a much longer free fall than planned after the thrusters were switched off prematurely." Image  c/o NASA.

As outlined in the October 19th, 2016 Spaceflight Insider post, "Lost on Mars: Schiaparelli lander falls silent shortly before touchdown," the Schiaparelli lander, the first of the two part exobiology on Mars (ExoMars) astrobiology project designed to search for evidence of Martian life, ceased communicating with ESA mission control approximately one minute before its planned touchdown on October 19th.

On Oct 21st , NASA released photos of the landing site taken by its Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) which seem to confirm the ExoMars team’s suspicions. The MRO’s photos show a bright feature consistent with Schiaparelli’s 12 meter wide parachute, as well as a 15x40 m dark patch likely created by the lander's impact, ESA officials said.

The ESA estimates that the lander dropped from a height of between 2 and 4 kms, impacting Mars’ surface at speeds of over 300 km/h. ESA officials also stated that Schiaparelli may have exploded on impact due to its thruster propellant tanks, which likely remaining full because the lander did not fire its descent thrusters for as long as required to slow the decent.

The suspected crash site lies about 5.4 km west of Schiaparelli's intended landing site in Mars' Meridiani Planum, a highland region just south of the Red Planet's equator. The impact site is well within the planned landing area, which measures 62 miles long by 9 miles wide (100 by 15 km), ESA officials said. 

Schiaparelli was launched last March along with its orbiter, the ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter (TGO). The two spacecraft comprise the first phase of the two-phase ExoMars program, being led by the ESA in partnership with Russia’s federal space agency, Roscosmos.

Schiaparelli was to have served as a test bed for life-hunting technologies to be used on a rover in ExoMars' second phase in 2021. ESA officials have stated that Schiaparelli's descent data will still be useful in this regard despite the probe’s loss.

The TGO remains in good condition and is now orbiting Mars. In early 2017, the TGO will begin shifting to its final science orbit of some 400km above Mars. The TGO is expected to complete this manuver and begin its two year mission in March 2018. The TGO will investigate the origin of methane and other trace gases in the Martian atmosphere. Methane is of particular interest to scientists as a potential sign of life.

The TGO will also serve as a communications relay for the ExoMars 2020 rover as well as NASA’s currently operational Mars surface craft, the Opportunity and Curiosity rovers, before winding down in 2022.

The ExoMars project has several Canadian connections. They include:

• ExoMars’ project manager Don McCoy, an engineer born in Winnipeg, MB. Holding degrees in chemistry, civil engineering, and aerospace engineering, McCoy has worked on the Hubble Space Telescope, the ESA’s Huygens probe as well as the Mars Express and Venus Express missions. He was appointed ExoMars project manager in December 2006.

• Dr. Livio Tornabene, from Western University, the Canadian co-investigator on the colour and stereo surface imaging system (CaSSIS) imager onboard the TGO.

• Dr. Ed Cloutis, from the University of Winnipeg, who will investigate the composition of dust in the Martian atmosphere as a co-investigator as part of the ExoMars TGO Nadir and Occultation for MArs Discovery (NOMAD) science team.

• Richmond, BC based Macdonald Dettwiler (MDA) which, as outlined in the October 2nd, 2013 MDA press release, "MDA to Supply Key Mars Rover Elements on European Mission," is currently developing and building the wheels and suspension system (called “BEMA”) for the upcoming ESA ExoMars Rover due to be launched in 2020.

Brian Orlotti.

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Brian Orlotti is a regular contributor to the Commercial Space blog.

Government Driven Innovation Policies, MacDonald Dettwiler, Export Development Canada, CSA Grants & Elon Musk

         By Chuck Black

Here are some stories we're currently tracking for the Commercial Space blog:

One type of government driven innovation policy. Cartoon c/o Lisa Benson/ Washington Post. 

• The annual Canadian Science Policy Conference (CSPC), this year being held from November 8th - 10th, 2016 in Ottawa, has traditionally filled an important Canadian need for non-partisan, inclusive and national dialogue on science, technology and innovation policy. 

But this year, the event might carry more weight than usual.

As outlined in the June 13th, 2016 post "Government Announces Comprehensive Review of Canadian Science," the Federal government has announced an independent panel, to review the activities of the National Research Council (NRC), the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC), the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC), the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR), as well as programs like the Canada Foundation for Innovation (CFI), the various Canada Research Chairs, Genome Canada and others.

That panel, expected to report before the end of this year, will affect all who normally attend and many are hoping that expected policy changes will be announced in time for discussion at this year's event. 

Commercial Space blog correspondents will be on-site at the Shaw Centre during this year's CSPC to keep readers up to date on breaking news and activities. Expect to see thrills, chills and more than a few spills.

EDC, a Federally owned crown corporation with headquarters in Ottawa. As outlined on the its website, "Export Development Canada provides Canadian exporters with trade financing, export credit insurance and bonding services, as well as foreign market expertise." Photo c/o Corporate Knights.

• Speaking of government policies designed to encourage innovation, questions are arising as to whether or not Richmond, BC. based MacDonald Dettwiler (MDA), should remain eligible for Export Development Canada (EDC) money and assistance when it flows through foreign subsidiaries and facilities with no perceived direct benefit to Canada. 

As outlined in the October 18th, 2016 National Post article, "EDC financing satellite construction in California because of ‘direct benefit’ to Canada," EDC funds have recently been used for several non-Canadian projects being built in California for Spain and Azerbaijan.

According to the article,"in March 2015, EDC announced it was providing $190 million to a Spanish telecommunications operator for a satellite to be built by SSL (Space Systems Loral, a California based subsidiary of Delaware incorporated SSL MDA Holdings, the holding company which controls both MDA and SSL)... Seven months later (the Republic of) Azerbaijan said EDC was financing another telecommunications satellite at the U.S. facility at a cost of about $191 million. In its news release about the Azerbaijan satellite, MDA highlighted SSL’s status as a U.S. company." 

Eligibility for EDC support gives the US based SSL a competitive advantage against other US based organizations, since "the U.S. government’s version of EDC, (the) Export-Import Bank (of the United States), has been closed for large transactions since last year because of U.S. Congressional opposition to the organization."

The article also contained quotes from Steve Staples, the vice-president of the Rideau Institute; Brian Masse, the New Democratic Party’s critic monitoring the innovation, science and economic development file (who said last Monday in the House of Commons that MDA has shifted to US control “right there under the Liberals’ noses.”); Innovation Minister Navdeep Bains and Commercial Space blog editor Chuck Black.

RADARSAT-2 product description from the MDA website. RADARSAT-2 is an Earth observation satellite launched in 2007 from the Baikonur Cosmodrome. It's owned and operated by MDA, which resells data collected by the satellite for profit to Canadians and others. For the complete document, simply click on the graphic above. Graphic c/o MDA.

• Of course, EDC funds, financing and guarantees are not the only mechanisms the Federal government uses to support innovation and promote Canadian companies. 

As outlined in the October 22nd, 2016 post, "The Canadian Space Agency Gave Out Almost $5Mln CDN in Grants and Contributions Last Quarter!," the CSA provided fourteen grants to various public and private organization in Q2 2016 (from March - June 2016) and nine of those grants were made to academic institutions in order to develop new uses for data derived from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR).

At present, the primary Canadian supplier of InSAR data is MDA, which collects and resells the data as part of its RADARSAT-2 operational responsibilities. And, as outlined in the September 8th, 2014 post, "Space Agency Funds Training for RADARSAT Researchers," the current grants grew out of an earlier decision to "develop a larger pool of Canadian post-secondary researchers able to work with RADARSAT-2 data." 

The nine grants were for small amounts (approximately $50K CDN each) and arguments can certainly be made that developing new uses for data derived from Canadian space assets is good for Canada, since it increases our national capabilities. 

An argument could also be made that MDA benefits from having our national space agency fund the development of new applications for its products. 

Overall, the story is simply a reminder that developing government policy focused around encouraging "innovation" is a complex business with many unknowns.

SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk. Photo c/o The Verge.

• Unless, of course, you're Elon Musk.

As outlined in the October 23rd, 2016 Verge post, "Here’s what we learned from Elon Musk’s SpaceX Reddit AMA," the South African-born Canadian-American business magnate, investor, engineer and inventor "took to Reddit this evening for an Ask Me Anything session," to supplement his September 27th, 2016 presentation from the 67th International Astronautical Conference in Guadalajara, Mexico.

As outlined in the October 3rd, 2016 post, "Mr. Musk Goes to Mars," Musk used the earlier event to outline his ambitious plans to colonize the red planet.

Musk has spent his career solving problems (in this case, the problems surrounding the need to make humans a "multi-planet species") under the assumption that innovation and other benefits derive naturally from an environment created to solve complex problems.

It's a solution which Canadians were once well able to grasp, especially when it came to expanding our northern communications (which led directly to the creation of Telesat) or building the International Space Station (which led SPAR Aerospace to create the first Canadarm). 

But it might also be a lesson we've mostly forgotten. 

For more on Musk's Reddit presentation, check out the October 23rd, 2016 Reddit post, "I am Elon Musk, ask me anything about becoming a spacefaring civ!"

For more updates on these and other stories, be sure to check out future posts on the Commercial Space blog.

Chuck Black.

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Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog.

The Canadian Space Agency Gave Out Almost $5Mln CDN in Grants and Contributions Last Quarter!

          By Henry Stewart

CSA Disclosure of Grants and Contributions Awards Page. Screenshot c/o CSA.

It's worth noting that recent stories and press releases focused around individual Canadian Space Agency (CSA) initiatives are really only a partial representation of the funds provided through the CSA at any one time.

These include stories such as the October 21st, 2016 CNW Telebec post, "Une nouvelle technologie médicale de pointe sera mise à l'essai dans l'espace - Cette technologie de surveillance peut être utilisée sur Terre pour les soins de santé," focused around the astroskin smartshirt and the upcoming health experiments planned for the International Space Station (ISS) as discussed in the October 18th, 2016 Globe and Mail post, "Canadian Space Agency to conduct health experiment on space station."

To get a true sense of what's happening, you need to visit the CSA disclosure of grants and contributions awards page, a quarterly compilation of CSA grants and contributions to third parties. of over $25,000 CDN.

InSAR images created using the homogeneous distributed scatterers (HDS) technique, showing deformation from multiple surface types including asphalt. As outlined in the December 2nd, 2015 Earth Imaging Journal post, "Learn the Ground Rules: InSAR Enables Proactive Urban Infrastructure Monitoring,"  provides multiple examples of InSAR data being used in a variety of ways. In Q2 2016, nine of the fourteen CSA grants awarded focused on new uses for InSAR data. Images c/o MDA Geospatial Services.

CSA first quarter totals for 2016/17 (from April - June 2016, the last period for which data is available) include fourteen grants to eleven organizations for a variety of research and experiments. They include:

Two grants to the University of Waterloo covering:

• A project to develop a methodology for the generation of ice thickness and bathymetry products of shallow lakes using RADARSAT-2 interferometric synthetic aperture radar, or InSAR. ($50K CDN) 

• A project to develop an understanding of the coupling mechanism between glacier ice loss and slope displacement using interferometric analysis of RADARSAT-2 data. ($50K CDN)

Two grants to the University of Western Ontario covering:

• A project to integrate InSAR and polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (PolSAR) in order to develop a more robust and systematic method to accurately map urban development changes over time in order to represent the associated land subsidence rate. ($50K CDN) 

•  A project to determine if the salt on Axel Heiberg Island (Nunavut) is still rising, and if so, at what rate. The main objective will be to use InSAR measurements (likely also from RADARSAT-2) to quantify the upwards motion of diapirs, a domed rock formation in which a core of rock has moved upward to pierce the overlying strata. ($50K CDN).

 Two grants to York University covering:

• Another project to exploit RADARSAT-2 InSAR data, this time focused on permafrost characterization to "establish the relationship" between surface deformation between freezing and melting "as well as the active layer characteristics." ($49.8K CDN)

• A second grant, this one for substantially more money (although the amount allocated would be expected to cover more than one fiscal year) to cover an experiment on the perception of self-motion (POSM) in space. According to the description, the project will investigate the "amplitude of motion evoked by a given pattern of optic flow by measuring how far a participant needs to “travel” in a simulated environment to reach a previously viewed target." ($786K CDN)

A 2013 Environment Canada (EC) poster outlining the development of Canada’s carbon assimilation system. In Q2 2016, the University of Toronto received a CSA grant to integrate new data derived from satellite measurements, into the program. Graphic c/o EC.

Individual grants were also awarded to the following universities: 

• The Global Institute for Water Security, at the University of Saskatchewan, which received one grant for a project to investigate the capabilities of InSAR based RADARSAT-2 data in generating a high resolution digital elevation model. ($50K CDN)

• The Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique (INRS), a part of the Université du Québec, which received one grant for a project to monitor different types of land movement in the Greater Quebec City region for the period of 2008-2016. An emphasis "will be placed on expanding (data collected through) InSAR's." ($50K CDN)

• The Université de Sherbrooke, which received one grant "to use RADARSAT-2 SAR interferometry combined with a hydrodynamic model" to study the hydrodynamics of the Peace-Athabasca Delta in northern Alberta. ($49.5K CDN). 

• The University of Calgary, which received one grant to investigate the use of InSAR for quantifying estimates of calving from polar glaciers in Canada's Arctic. ($48K CDN). 

• The University of Toronto, which received a single, but substantial grant to extend the Environment Canada carbon assimilation system (EC-CAS), which monitors CO2 and CH4 concentrations across Canada, to include data collected from the measurement of pollution in the troposphere (MOPITT) scientific instrument. MOPITT was launched into Earth orbit in 1999 as part of the NASA Terra satellite. ($240K CDN). 

As outlined in many previous articles, including this February 23th, 2014 post on "Canadian Firm Plans to Corner the Worldwide Rover Chassis Market," the CSA has previously attempted to develop rovers it can resell to other space programs. Its most recent attempt is its $1.2Mln CDN grant to Canadensys Aerospace Corporation in Q2 2016. Screen shot c/o Commercial Space Media. 

Of course the obvious big beneficiaries of CSA largess in the first quarter of 2016 were three privately held corporations, which together received $2.7Mln CDN of the almost $5Mln CDN disbursed in total. They include:

• Bolton, Ontario based Canadensys Aerospace Corporation, which received a single large grant worth $1.2Mln CDN in order to develop a Deep Space compatible nano-platform architecture that can be tailored to support a variety of new low cost robotic exploration missions. 

• Sherbrooke, Quebec based Menya Solutions, which received $532K CDN to develop algorithmic software designed to allow robotic mechanisms to reason, "anticipate events, plan and execute complex behaviors autonomously."

• Quebec City based NorStar Space Data Inc., which received $972K CDN in order to pursue the development of a constellation of LEO satellites equipped with hyperspectral sensors called NorthStar.

It's also worth noting that nine of the fourteen grants presented by the CSA during this quarter went to various universities in order to develop new uses for InSAR derived data.

At present, the primary Canadian supplier of InSAR data is Richmond, British Columbia based MacDonald Dettwiler (MDA), which collects it as part of its RADARSAT-2 responsibilities.

That might change over the next little while. As outlined in the October 18th, 2016 post, "A Quick Update to 'Iconic Macdonald Dettwiler is now SSL MDA Holdings, a US Based Company,'" MDA seems more focused on growing its US business than on maintaining what were once its core Canadian assets.

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Henry Stewart is the pseudonym of a Toronto based aerospace writer.