Meanwhile, Back in the Real World, Here's 57 Market Driven Start-ups Charting the Final Frontier

          By Chuck Black

Back in April, as the Canadian space industry was just starting to get acquainted with the newly announced members of the Federal Space Advisory Board (SAB) who would shortly begin to "engage with Canadians to develop a new vision for Canada's space sector and define key elements of a strategy that will be launched this summer," a New York based data aggregator named CB Insights published a graphic highlighting 67 space focused companies funded by the private sector.

The Space Tech Market Map. For a larger version, simply click on the image. Graphic c/o CB Insights. 

As outlined in the April 24, 2017 CB Insights post, "The Space Tech Market Map: 57 Startups Charting The Final Frontier," NASA’s embrace of "private spaceflight has paved the way for private sector investments, and funding to “new space” companies has rocketed as a result."

According to the post:

... funding to space tech companies has rocketed from almost nothing in 2012, to approximately $4Bln US ($5.4Bln CDN) in combined funding over the past two years. Space tech includes startups involved in the construction and launch of satellites or rocketry into outer space, as well as ancillary companies working to aggregate and analyze satellite data. 

Deals to the sector have risen more than 400% between 2012-2015. In 2016, funding fell back to Earth a bit, with 40 deals across $1.5Bln US ($2Bln CDN) in funding, down from 46 and $2.3Bln US ($3.1Bln CDN) in 2015.

At least two of companies listed in the chart are Canadian.

Waterloo, Ontario based Skywatch (which won the 2014 NASA Space Apps Challenge and was most recently cited in the April 25th, 2016 post, "A Weekend at the 2016 NASA Space Apps Challenge") and Toronto, Ontario based Kepler Communications (most recently cited in the November 20th, 2016 post, "SpaceX, Telesat & Kepler Just Three of the Dozen Satellite Constellations Currently on the FCC Table.") possess substantial access to US venture markets and were also included in the list.

The data used for the chart was collected from the CB Insights database and the 57 startups were organized into three categories and eight subcategories, based on each company’s primary product, line of business, and/or current focus.

Graphic outlining the growth of government space programs from 1997 - 2016 with an estimate of future growth through 2026. Graphic c/o Euroconsult.

The private sector growth is in sharp contrast to nation space agency and government funding which, as outlined in the May 30th, 2017 Euroconsult press release, "Government Spending in Space Programs Reaches $62 Billion in 2016" have remained essentially static over the last five years, although they are expected to grow to approximately $79US ($107Bln CDN) by 2026.

According to the Euroconsult press release, "The number of countries investing in space is steadily increasing, with 70 countries in 2016, up from 47 a decade ago. In the coming years over 80 countries are planning to invest in space technologies and capabilities, showing that governments consider space a valuable investment to support their national socio-economic, strategic and technological development."

The Euroconsult data was compiled as part of its newly released research report on, "Government Space Programs: Benchmarks, Profiles & Forecasts to 2026."

Chuck Black.

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Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog.

The State of the CDN Space Sector, Our "Innovation Agenda," UrtheCast, exactEarth, More Government & Orbcomm, Which is #1!

          By Henry Stewart

It's just got to be noteworthy that the "second" most important space story in Canada this week (after the ongoing selection of two new CSA astronauts) is the announcement from the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) that they have released their most recent survey of the Canadian space industry, covering the year 2014.

Yes. 2014. But there's more!

The "State of the Canadian Space Sector 2014" is a direct follow-on to the Euroconsult produced "2015 Comprehensive Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of the Canadian Space Sector," which covered 2013 and utilized methodologies developed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). As outlined by CSA president Sylvain Laporte in the preamble, "the 2014 survey results indicate that the space sector has achieved revenues of $5.4B and a workforce of over 10,000. Upstream segment activities related to research, engineering and manufacturing account for $1B. Downstream segment operations, products and services account for $4.4B, with Satellite Communication dominating the downstream segment. Domestic, and particularly commercial, sales emerged as the most important area for growth in 2014. At the same time, export markets experienced some contraction. Overall, the space sector contributed $2.9B to gross domestic product (GDP) and helped maintain 25,000 jobs (direct, indirect and induced) in the wider Canadian economy." For a direct comparison between the OECD methodologies and the techniques used in the earlier, CSA created "State of the Canadian Space Sector 2013," check out the June 12th, 2016 post, "A Quick Conversation with Euroconsult on the 'Comprehensive Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of the Canadian Space Sector.'" Graphic c/o CSA. 

The 2% year over year growth rate for the Canadian space industry as reported in the new document (which was released in February 2017) is substantially lower than the 9% year over year worldwide growth rate reported in the "2015 Space Report; The Authoritative Guide to Global Space Activity," the annual publication of the Colorado based Space Foundation.

And the 2015 Space Report, which also covered 2014, was released twenty months ago, in July 2015. As outlined in the July 18th, 2015 press release, "The Space Report 2015 PDF is Now Available," the larger international based report indicated that:

... the global space economy grew slightly more than 9 percent (in 2014), reaching a total of $330 billion worldwide, up from 2013's $302.5 billion. 

Together, commercial space activities made up 76 percent of the global space economy. The industry as a whole demonstrated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of seven percent from 2005 to 2014, nearly doubling in size over the course of the decade.

For those who'd like something a little more current, here are a few of the other stories we're tracking for the Commercial Space blog:

• It's hardly surprising given our first story this week, but it's worth noting that the Canadian Federal government is still in the midst of finalizing its "Innovation Agenda," and the allocation of the $800Mln CDN expected to be spent to support it over the next four years.

At least that's the story in the March 13th, 2017 Canadian Press post, "Feds still finalizing $800M innovation fund." According to the article, "an $800-million commitment central to the Trudeau government’s economic growth strategy is expected to be divvied up within the next few months among groups and companies that can persuade Ottawa they’re best positioned to help young, high-potential firms flourish." 

Ottawa hopes those companies will evolve into strong job creators able to provide Canada with an economic boost and long-term, high paying jobs. However, according to the article, "even with this month’s release of a budget billed as a plan focused on innovation, specifics on the $800-million program will likely have to wait a little longer."

Evidently, at least according to the article, there is still some questions about whether investments will be provided directly to high-growth Canadian companies or focused on funding the universities and incubators which support them.

As outlined in the January 16th, 2017 post, "The REAL Funding Opportunity Behind the Upcoming Canadian Space Agency 'Long-Term Strategy'," no one expects any major money to show up for science and space related CSA driven projects until well after June 2017, when the government said it will unveil its new "long-term strategy" for space. 

The Federal budget is expected to be released next Wednesday, March 22nd.

Some space agencies just know how to do it right. As outlined in the March 8th, 2017 NASA press release, "NASA Selects Over 100 Small Business Projects to Advance Space Innovation," NASA has "selected 133 proposals from US companies to conduct research and develop technologies that will enable NASA's future missions into deep space and benefit the US economy." The proposals, valued at approximately $100Mln US (approximately $135Mln CDN), were selected under Phase II of NASA’s Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program. It's unfortunate that the CSA has been publicly opposed to the US SBIR program. To learn why, it's worth taking a look at the July 19th, 2009 post “Canadian Space Agency Provides "No Dedicated Programs" to Support Small Aerospace Firms." and the July 24th, 2009 follow-up post "OK, So Maybe the CSA Does Provide Some Support for Small Aerospace Firms" Graphic c/o NASA.

• Vancouver, BC based UrtheCast is raising money. 

As outlined in the March 6th, 2016 UrtheCast press release, "UrtheCast Corp. Announces $17 Million Bought Deal," the company has entered into an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters co-led by Clarus Securities Inc. and Canaccord Genuity Corp,, where the underwriters will purchase, on a "bought deal" basis, 11,333,340 common shares of the Company at $1.50 CDN per common share. 

Aggregate gross proceeds to the company should total just over $17Mln CDN. 

The offering is expected to close "on or about" March 23rd, 2017 and is subject to certain conditions including (but not limited to) the approval of the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). 

As outlined in the press release, "the securities have not been, and will not be, registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "U.S. Securities Act"), or any U.S. state securities laws, and may not be offered or sold in the United States without registration under the U.S. Securities Act and all applicable state securities laws or compliance with the requirements of an applicable exemption therefrom."

The advantage of the bought deal from the issuer's perspective is that they do not have to worry about financing risk, which is assumed by the purchaser or, in this case, by the underwriters.

• Cambridge, Ontario based ExactEarth Ltd. has reported a $2Mln CDN loss in its fiscal first quarter as revenue from a federal government contract fell sharply.

As outlined in the March 8th, 2017 Waterloo Region Record post, "ExactEarth Q1 loss doubles on lower revenue from government contract," the scrappy supplier of automatic identification system (AIS) ocean tracking services (spun off from what used to be COM DEV International before it was purchased by New Jersey based conglomerate Honeywell International in January 2016), lost only $1Mln CDN during the same period last year.

Orbcomm CEO Eisenberg. Photo c/o Orbcomm.

ExactEarth recorded revenue of $3.3Mln CDN in the three months ended January 31st, down from $6.4Mln CDN in the first quarter a year earlier. 

The company blamed the decreased revenue on a Canadian Federal government contract, which accounted for the $3.1Mln CDN difference. 

That contract was originally outlined in the February 14th, 2016 post, "Newborn exactEarth Faces its First Battle for the Worm," and revisited in the May 7th, 2016 post, "Orbcomm, Skywave, exactEarth, CSA Rovers, High School Robotics, MDA, Emerson, Magellan, Honeywell & UrtheCast," 

ExactEarth said it booked $8.9Mln CDN in orders in the first quarter, up from $4.2Mln CDN in the same period a year earlier. 

To no one's surprise, exactEarth's competition for the Canadian government contract, New Jersey based Orbcomm, trumpeted its success to all who would listen. 

As outlined in the March 2nd, 2017 Space Intel Report post, "Orbcomm: Canadian, Australian, European wins show our AIS dominance," Orbcomm CEO  Marc J. Eisenberg said "the company's recent wins of satellite-based AIS maritime vessel surveillance increase Orbcomm's AIS business to around $8 million per year," or more than half of what Orbcomm views as the total global addressable market. 

In other words, they're number one! Canadian firms will just have to wait for the next Canadian government opportunity.

For more, check out future posts in the Commercial Space blog.

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Henry Stewart is the pseudonym of a Toronto based aerospace writer.

Canadian Space Agency Releases "Comprehensive Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of the Canadian Space Sector"

           By Chuck Black

The Canadian Space Agency (CSA) has released a report on the "Comprehensive Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of the Canadian Space Sector" in an effort to "capture the economic argument for investment in space."

Infographic charting the socio-economic impact of the Canadian space sector from the "Comprehensive Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of the Canadian Space Sector." Source c/o Euroconsult/ CSA.

The 97+ page document, costing just under $250,000CDN to create under contract to the Montreal, PQ based office of Paris, France based Euroconsult, called Canada a "pioneer in the development and application of advanced space technologies," such as advanced communications satellites, synthetic aperture radar and space robotics technologies, but also categorized the country as having "lost its place" among the world's leading space programs.

According to the report, "the Canadian space sector is comprised of over 200 organizations involved at different levels of the space value chain and employing a total of 9,784 workers involved in a wide array of highly qualified jobs. It is estimated that this sector generated cumulative revenues of $5.37 billion in 2013 when taking into account Canadian satellite broadcasting activities, and $2.63 billion when excluding these activities."

These numbers are substantially higher than the last publicly released assessment of the Canadian space sector, the 2013 State of the Canadian Space Sector Report, which was compiled by the CSA and released in December 2015.

However, the majority of the difference between the two reports could be caused by the different reporting methods. The Euroconsult report was developed using methodologies developed by the Paris, France based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), as defined in their March 2012 publication "OECD Handbook on Measuring the Space Economy."

Dated March 2015, but only released to the public on June 3rd, 2016, the origins of this Euroconsult/ CSA document go back to 2014. As outlined in the August 14th, 2014 post, "Space Agency Seeks Insight into Space Industry," that's when the CSA solicited bids from "qualified suppliers" to undertake a "comprehensive socio-economic impact assessment" of the Canadian space sector. The final, perhaps more practical objective, was to "capture the economic argument for investment in space." To judge whether or not that objective was achieved, simply click on the screenshot above and download the report. Screenshot c/o Euroconsult/ CSA.

The CSA data came from an internally derived CSA methodology which was never made explicit to outside observers, and didn't really satisfy even the CSA and its supporters. When the final 2013 State of the Canadian Space Sector Report was released in December 2015, page four of that report noted that future reports on the Canadian space sector would be expected to follow OECD methodologies.

As outlined in the Euroconsult report, Canada dedicates much less of its GDP to its civil space activities than the world average and this situation has consequences. According to the report:

• Although a G7 country, Canada dedicates much less of its GDP to its civil space activities than the world average. Its baseline funding will likely not enable Canada to maintain its space capabilities in the long term. In addition, budget instability and unpredictability affect the most fragile players, especially SMEs that form a critical part the Canadian space sector’s ecosystem.

• When taking into account defence, the Canadian government’s total investment in space has actually increased quite significantly. However, the return of these investments remains limited for the Canadian space sector as a large part is spent on foreign programs. Considering the scale of the investments, this is a non-negligible shortfall for the Canadian space sector. 

• Canadian government investment in space has not always supported domains showing high market potential, limiting the possibility to turn this initial investment into larger economic gains for the space sector. As result, several industry players have been progressively pushed away from the Canadian space program.

It's important to note that many nations believe the economic argument for investment in space has already been successfully made. A recent example, as outlined in the June 4th, 2016 Wall Street Journal article, "Luxembourg Sets Aside Funds for Asteroid Mining Push," is Luxembourg, where deputy prime minister Etienne Schneider said in an interview Thursday that his government had set aside roughly €200Mln Euros ($328MLN CDN) in public funds to support commercial space ventures. As outlined in the December 14th, 2015 post, "UK Space Policy Follows US Down the "NewSpace" Path," other countries are also investing in space and passing legislation encouraging private sector investment. Screenshot c/o WSJ. 

• Many successful companies focus on the export market which can represent up to 90% of their revenues, with little dependency on government R&D or support programs. While a sign of commercial maturity, in the longer term it could create a risk for business sustainability and key technological capabilities and furthermore cause a disconnect between industry technological capabilities and government national requirements. 

• The Canadian industry has made significant investments outside Canada, including foreign acquisitions and the implementation of facilities in other countries. While it shows the dynamism of the largest Canadian companies, they choose to invest outside Canada to grow their business. Conversely, Canada does not attract enough foreign investment in its space sector, whereas this would provide additional capital and grow its technology base. 

Chuck Black.

As outlined, most recently in the March 23rd, 2016 post, "India is also Building Reusable Spacecraft," Canada has been losing ground since 2010 to other national space players such as Brazil, China, Israel, Japan and South Korea, who either already possess or are in the process of developing, the capability to launch satellites into orbit using domestically developed rockets.
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Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog.

A Space "Socio-Economic Impact Statement," a COM DEV Conference Call, more Telesat Sale Snags & Lego Astronauts

          by Chuck Black

Here are a few of the unfolding Canadian space stories currently being tracked by the Commercial Space blog.

The space sector, particularly its legislative component, has always been known for studies and reports and Canada is no exception in this area. As outlined in the October 27th, 2014 post, "Free OECD Report on Space Economy Provides Guidance for Upcoming Paid CSA Report," a Canadian Space Agency (CSA) contract valued at $285,000 CDN to undertake a "comprehensive socio-economic impact assessment" of the Canadian space sector, should be complete and ready for presentation by January 30th, 2015.

However, there is so far no advance word on whether the upcoming report (compiled by the North American subsidiary of Paris, France based Euroconsult) will supplement or supersede existing documents, such as the annual State of the Canadian Space Sector Report (which is typically released during the December/ January period) and no suggestion that the report might ever be released to the public.

Of course, the private sector is often perceived of as being more forthcoming with information. As outlined in the January 8th, 2015 press release, "COM DEV Announces Details of Fourth Quarter and Year End Fiscal 2014 Conference Call," Cambridge based COM DEV International will be releasing its Q4 and year end financial results, plus hosting an investor conference call to discuss them, on Thursday, January 15th, 2015.

With 1200 employees, the firm is a global provider of space hardware and services with annual revenues of $216Mln CDN, and facilities in Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States. As outlined in the December 15th, 2014 post, "COM DEV Buys a Scottish Microwave Equipment Manufacturer," the company has just concluded the first of a promised series of international acquisitions intended to grow the company and gain access to foreign markets.

And, as discussed in the January 10th, 2015 Bloomberg post, "Canada Funds’ Bid for Telesat Said to Hit Financing Snag," the ongoing attempt by Loral Space & Communications Inc. (LORL) to sell its Telesat shares to the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan and the Public Sector Pension Investment Board, has been delayed again.

This time, the sale stalled amid a "regulatory clampdown on the leveraged-loan market." As outlined in the December 3rd, 2014 Wall Street Journal article, "Private-Equity Firms Adapt to Regulatory Clampdown," the use of borrowed assets to fund purchases, which boost immediate overall returns to an acquirer, could also potentially burden the acquired company with too much debt to ever return to profitability after the purchase.

LEGO minifigure versions of Expedition 42 crew members Terry Virts, Anton Shklaperov, and Samantha Cristoforetti are seen on the International Space Station. Lego Chris says hi. Photo c/o NASA.

But in an industry generally assumed to be at least as much about encouraging the efforts of "boys with toys," it's refreshing to find an actual toy company bearing gifts for real space geeks. As outlined in the Yahoo News UK article, "Astronauts Get Their Own LEGO Minifigures on Space Station," LEGO mini-figures customized to look like NASA astronaut Terry Virts, Roscosmos cosmonaut Anton Shklaperov and European Space Agency (ESA) astronaut Samantha Cristoforetti were among the gifts the crew exchanged on New Year's Day.

According to the article, the LEGO was a gift from Cristoforetti, who received them from a ESA training instructor, who commissioned them from the UK-based company Minifigs.me.

Free OECD Report on Space Economy Provides Guidance for Upcoming Paid CSA Report

          by Chuck Black

Anyone looking to learn the real state of national and international space activities and the economic benefits deriving from those activities might not want to wait for the anticipated January 2015 delivery date on the next quarter million dollar Canadian Space Agency (CSA) study on the topic and could instead check out the just released 2014 report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on "The Space Economy at a Glance."

The report is available at no charge on the OECD "Space Forum" website. As outlined on the website;

The OECD Space Forum aims to assist governments, space-related agencies and the private sector to better identify the statistical contours of the growing space sector worldwide, while investigating the space infrastructure’s economic significance and potential impacts for the larger economy. 

The Forum includes institutions from nine OECD member economies (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Korea, Norway, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States), as well as the European Space Agency."

According to the report, "the space economy represented some USD 256.2 billion in revenues in 2013, divided between the space manufacturing supply chain (33%), satellite operators (8.4%) and consumer services (58%), including actors who rely on some satellites' capacity for part of their revenues, such as direct-to-home satellite television services providers."

But as outlined in the August 24th, 2014 post "Space Agency Seeks Insight into Space Industry," the CSA didn't just contribute data and background materials to the OECD. Over the summer, the CSA also solicited bids of up to $250,000 CDN, from "qualified suppliers" willing to undertake a "comprehensive socio-economic impact assessment" of the Canadian space sector.

The original bid, as referenced on the the Public Works and Government Services Canada BuyandSell.ca website under the title Comprehensive Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of the Canadian Space Sector (9F012-140360/A), even explicitly referenced OECD expertise in this area.

According to page 34 of the "Task and Solutions Professional Services (TSPS) Solutions Based Supply Arrangement (SA) Request for Proposal (RFP) for the Requirement of: Comprehensive Socio-Economic Assessment of the Canadian Space Sector for the Canadian Space Agency," the first task required as part of the project, was a "review of background documentation" and best practices such as those outlined in the OECD Handbook on Measuring the Space Economy.

The most recent version of this handbook, published in March 2012, provided a summary of the key methodological issues surrounding indicators and statistics on the space sector and the larger space economy and was meant to be complementary to another publication, the 2011 edition of the Space Economy at a Glance. Both publications, along with many others, are available as free downloads from the OECD website.

The final CSA contract, valued at $285,000 CDN according to the October 20th, 2014 post "Hill Times Promotes the 2014 Canadian Aerospace Summit," was won by the North American subsidiary of Paris, France based Euroconsult which is currently preparing the final report for presentation to CSA and other government officials, "by January 30th, 2015."

Here's hoping that the OECD left at least some of the juicy details related to measuring the economic benefits of space activities out of its free reports in order to provide value to the paid report which Euroconsult is preparing for the CSA. 

Otherwise, even they might be better served by reading the free report. 

Two Reports on the Changing Shape of the Space Sector

          by Brian Orlotti

Two space market analysis firms have just released reports describing the continuing transformation in the global space sector; shrinking government space programs contrasting with growing private space initiatives.

On Feb 13th, Paris-based Euroconsult released their report titled, "Profiles of Government Space Programs" stating that budgets for government space programs worldwide have dropped to $72.1Bln USD in 2013 after reaching a peak of $72.9Bln USD in 2012. According to the report, 2013 is the first year since 1995 in which government space programs have entered a global downward trend, a result attributed to both the cyclical nature of program funding as well as government austerity measures due to the global recession.

Despite this, the report’s editor (and Euroconsult COO) Steve Bochinger stated in a press release that there are positive signs, such as the emergence of new leading space nations in addition to a growing number of nations building up their space capabilities. Bochinger went on to say that Euroconsult anticipates government space spending to recover in many nations in the latter part of this decade.

Steve Bochinger.

The Euroconsult report goes on to state that the current global fiscal austerity has forced many nations to be more innovative with their space programs, most notably welcoming wider private sector involvement in areas until recently restricted to government entities. This current transitional period will have far-reaching effects on how governments view their space programs and how private contractors structure their dealings with government.

Some of the Euroconsult reports key points include:

• In 2013, 58 countries invested $10Mln USD or more in space applications and technologies, compared to 53 in 2011 and 37 in 2003. 22 more countries have been identified with plans for space investment.

• The US invested $38.7 Bln USD in its space program (civil and defense) in 2013 confirming the downward trend initiated since the start of the decade. This is an $8.8Bln reduction compared to the peak spending of $47.5Bln in 2009.

• Russia recorded a massive increase of its public investment in space and is the only country after the US to pass the $10Bln USD cap. In the last five years, Russia's investments have accelerated at an impressive average growth of 32% in local currency.

• Another six countries invested over $1 billion: Japan, China, France, Germany, Italy and India, as well as the European Union. China's 8th place ranking for space spending as a ratio of its GDP indicates there is room for investment growth in the future.

• 19 countries recorded over $100Mln in spending: the UK, Canada, Brazil, Spain, South Korea, Belgium, Kazakhstan, the UAE, Argentina, Mexico, Australia, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Turkey, Sweden, Israel, Nigeria, Iran, and Norway.

But Atlanta-based analyst firm SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. has also just released a report, titled "2014 Nano / Microsatellite Market Assessment."

The document, focused on the fast growing nano/micro-satellite markets instead of government space agencies, provided a far more optimistic snapshot of space activities. According to the report:

• There are an estimated 410 to 543 nano/micro-satellites (defined as being in the 1-50 kg mass range) globally that will need launches in 2020 (compared to 92 in 2013).

• In the 2014-16 time frame, there are 650 nano/micro-satellites in various stages of planning & development.

• Nano/micro-satellite launches have grown by an average of 37.2% per year since 2009, with an expected 23.8% growth per year over the next 6 years (2014-2020).

• The continued growth of the nano/micro-satellite market shows no signs of abating, which will likely boost the efforts of current players and spur the entry of new ones.     

Brian Orlotti.

Some decry the decline of government space programs as the end of space exploration itself, while others welcome the greater participation of the private sector as a way of making space more efficient and effective.

The the space sector’s transformation isn’t a question of the glass being half-full or half-empty; it is simply changing shape.    
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Brian Orlotti is a Toronto-based IT professional and the treasurer of the Canadian Space Commerce Association (CSCA).

CASSIOPE, UrtheCast and Others Face Ongoing Launch Delays

The CASSIOPE satellite towering over Canadian Space Agency (CSA) astronaut Jeremy Hansen in 2009. According to the caption on the  CSA webpage, the satellite was then scheduled for launch in 2010. Photo c/o CSA.

Much like another industrial age icon, the railroads which never seemed to run on time, the typical modern day rocket launch is almost always behind schedule.

Recent Canadian examples of this include the Cascade Smallsat and Ionospheric Polar Explorer (CASSIOPE) small satellite, currently scheduled for a September 5th, 2013 launch and two UrtheCast high definition cameras originally set for a October 16th, 2013 launch to the International Space Station (ISS), but now postponed until at least November.

Steve  Bochinger.

In fact, anyone with even a cursory interest in tracking the "Worldwide Launch Schedule" updates on the SpaceFlight Now website would normally notice more launch delays than launch dates.

And according to Euroconsult chief operating officer Steve Bochinger, there is very little which can be done to improve the situation, at least over the short term. "When you include all categories of launch vehicles, such as those required for large geostationary telecommunications satellites, the total market is clearly under-supplied," said Bochinger in a recent phone interview.

An image of the July 1st, 2013 Proton-M launch just seconds before it crashed. According to the July 10th, 2013 Space Safety article "Proton Launch Failure Update: Culprit Found," investigators believe the crash occurred because the angular velocity sensors in the first stage were installed upside down. Photo c/o Roscosmos.

And by "under-supplied," Bochinger means that there is simply not enough reliable rockets to go around.

Recent launch failures such as the February 1st, 2013 Sea Launch mission to launch the Intelesat 27 satellite (which fell into the Pacific Ocean fifty-six seconds after launch as described on the Russian Space Web) and concerns over the July 1st, 2013 failure of the workhorse Russian Proton rocket are further constricting the market.

So while some of the more successful launch providers, such as the French based Arianespace (with over 50 consecutive Ariane 5 launches completed since 2002) are certainly benefiting, most satellite operators and providers are scrambling to find rides in the current tight market, which is generally anticipated to remain "under-supplied" for at least a few more years.

The SpaceX Falcon family of rockets. The expected September 5th, 2013 launch of the Canadian CASSIOPE satellite aboard a Falcon-9 will be the first use of the upgraded Merlin 1D engines, expected to generate approximately 56 percent more sea-level thrust than the Merlin 1C engines used on all previous Falcon 9 vehicles.

According to Bochinger, the first real break for satellite developers and operators could occur later this year, when the Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) Falcon-9 Heavy rocket becomes operational, but will depend on multiple SpaceX launches at a demonstrated low price.

As outlined in the May 29th 2012, Space-X press release "INTELSAT signs first commercial Falcon Heavy Launch Agreement with SpaceX,"  the new system will be designed to meet "both NASA human rating standards as well as the stringent US Air Force requirements for the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) program, making it an attractive solution for commercial, civil and military customers."

But SpaceX isn't going to be the only new player on the block over the next few years. As outlined in the June 20th, 2013 China Daily article "China seeks to boost share of satellite market," the Chinese will be rolling out the next generation of Long March 5 heavy lift rockets in 2015 as the first step in an effort to expand their share of the international launch market to 15% by 2020. Since 2005, China has launched satellites for Nigeria, Venezuela, Pakistan, Turkey, Argentina and Ecuador.

India is also continuing with the development of its troubled Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) as outlined in the July 23rd, 2013 NBC News story "India plans to launch first Mars mission, test large rocket this year."

But perhaps the biggest potential launch breakthrough is Stratolaunch Systems, with its plans for huge carrier aircraft capable of launching large multi-stage boosters into a variety of orbits. Founded in 2011 by Microsoft co-founder Paul G. Allen and Scaled Composites founder Burt Rutan (who had previously collaborated on the creation of Ansarii X-Prize winner SpaceShipOne), the new system is scheduled (even if not altogether expected) to roll-out in 2015.


Stand by for adventure when these new systems roll out as the satellite markets react to the expanded capacity.

Metrics on the Canadian Commercial Space Sector
Part 1: Basic Background Information

The State of the Cdn Space Sector.

The Canadian Space Agency (CSA) and most of the rest of those in the know call it the space systems industry and it isn't yet quite as big as the Canadian aerospace industry, which the Aerospace Industries Association of Canada (AIAC) categorizes as generating $22 billion CDN in revenue in FY2009 (according to the October 2010 report titled "The Strategic and Economic Impact of the Canadian Aerospace Industry").

But it's still a pretty good size. The 140 companies and organizations listed in the Canadian Space Directory generated $3.1 billion CDN in revenue in 2009 according to the 2009 State of the Canadian Space Sector Report (2009 CSSR).

And the industry is growing.

According to the report, revenues increased by 8% over 2008 to $3.025 billion, surpassing the $3 billion mark for the first time and workforce growth continued on a strong upward trend. The Canadian space sector presently employs "7564 people, of which 3770 are highly qualified professionals" according to the report.

And as discussed in my February 14th, 2011 post "Innovation and Canada's Commercial Space Sector" we also need to remember that:

... the (current) report covers 2009, the first full year of the great recession, and the growth of the overall Canadian economy for that year was essentially zero (at least according to the Statistics Canada data collected on the Trading Economics website). (Given that) the strength of our commercial space industry seems impressive.

Satellite communications is the sector with the most commercial activity at $2.326 billion CDN for 2009 according to the 2009 CSSR. The satellite sector represents 77% of total space sector revenue in 2009.

But to go any deeper into the industry as it presently stands, you need to look at a presentation titled "The Canadian Space Sector in the International Landscape" which Euroconsult, North America President Steve Bochinger created to present during the 2011 Canadian Space Commerce Association (CSCA) conference and general meeting on March 18th, 2011.

A short snapshot of the Canadian space program C/O Euroconsult, North America.

In his presentation, Bochinger divides the Canadian space sector into government funded and privately supported. The $626 million CDN government funded sector is then subdivided into two further categories to reflect the $377 million CDN coming from the CSA and a remainder, which mostly comes from the Department of National Defence (DND) through the Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC) and is focused on military research and development. According to Bochinger, this government investment is driven by the following requirements:

• Specific mission requirements, such as Radarsat Constellation, M3MSat, Cassiope, NEOSSAT and others.
• Earth climate data collection, environmental assessments and resource inventories.
• Technology development and commercialization as mandated by Canadian S&T strategy in documents like the Mobilizing Science and Technology to Canada's Advantage (May 2007) and the Mobilizing Science and Technology to Canada's Advantage Progress Report (June 2009).
• Science, exploration, robotics and the development of Moon and Mars rovers. 

The private sector description, pretty much parallels the 2009 CSSR with slightly over $3 billion CDN in revenue, weighted heavily on the satellite communications sector but with the added comment that the industry mostly develops outside of government investment.

Which means that there is not a lot of overlap between the $626 million CDN government funded sector and the $3+ billion CDN private sector.

According to Bochinger, rocket launchers are not an area of investment although there are ongoing discussions around the development of an indigenous small satellite launcher to facilitate science and provide military situational awareness capabilities. He also believes that the difficulty in formulating a national space policy (as discussed in my three part post "Two Billion Dollars for the Canadian Space Agency") highlights uncertain domestic governance and leadership.

Canadian space industry revenues from 2000 - 2009. C/O Euroconsult, North America.

Now that we know where the Canadian space systems industry stands, it's worthwhile taking a look at the leading companies in the sector, where they sells products and where the sector is going. Those discussions will be the subjects of future posts.

Breakthrough Space Technologies Panel Discussion Posted

Marc Boucher, my colleague over at Spaceref.ca has posted the panel discussion which finished off the recently concluded Canadian Space Commerce Association (CSCA) 2011 conference and annual general meeting.  Focused on "the Next Breakthrough Space Technologies for Canada," the conference took place on March 19th, 2011 at the MaRS Discovery District in Toronto, Ontario.


Panel Discussion: The Next Breakthrough Space Technologies for Canada on Vimeo.

I acted as host (that's me standing on the far left leaning over the podium) and the other participants, from left to right included Joshua Brost, the Manager of Business Development for Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX); Ron Holdway, the VP of Government Relations for Com Dev International (and also the current president of the Canadian Aeronautics and Space Institute); Frank Teti, the Manager of Autonomous Robotics for MacDonald, Dettwiler (MDA); Olivier Daigle, the Chief Technology Officer for Nüvü Camēras; Steve Bochinger, the President of Euroconsult North America; Chummer Farina, VP of the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) and Marie-Eve Ducharme, the President and CEO of Nüvü Camēras (who, unfortunately spent most of the discussion on the far right just out of camera range).

In the introductions, I compared the present panel with the 2006 International Astronautical Congress (AIC) round table on "Major Space Markets in the Next 20 years and the Corporate Approach for Success." This earlier panel, moderated by Virendra Jha (then VP Science, Technology and Programs for the CSA) also included Mag Iskander (then Executive VP and General Manager Space Missions for MDA) and quite a few other major figures in aerospace.

But with all those experts on the earlier panel, it was very amusing to note how each acted amazed at the things that have happened over the last twenty years, then marveled at how most of it was completely unexpected but then stated unequivocally that the market has likely stabilized and will now remain essentially the same for the foreseeable future (with one or two predictable exceptions which are logical progressions of already existing trends).

In essence, nobody really saw the near future or felt comfortable talking about all the amazing changes that were just about ready to occur in the space systems industry at the domestic and the international level over the next six years.

For the current panel, I wanted to insure that they weren't going to end up following along the same path as the earlier panel and would instead focus on the core discussions around space focused technologies where Canada can lead now and continue to do so in the future.

So I started by telling the panelists that they had to do a better job than the earlier panel. I hope they took my admonition in the spirit with which it was intended.

I do think they succeeded in outlining for discussion the important issues surrounding the next breakthrough space technologies for Canada including our growing expertise in micro-satellites, new initiatives in space science,  new sensors and exploration tools, Department of National Defense (DND) drivers related to northern sovereignty and other drivers that are starting to attract government funding including Earth imaging, new private initiatives such as on-orbit satellite servicing and the increasing capabilities possible now that launch costs are finally beginning to shrink.

But I've also included the earlier 2006 discussion so that people can compare the two, just in case I'm wrong.

A Canadian Perspective on NASA Changes

The cat is finally out of the bag with the Monday release of the Obama administrations budget proposal for FY2011 and various Canadian pundits and self appointed experts have already begun to weigh in on whether the changes are good news or otherwise.

Kevin Shortt, President of the Canadian Space Society in a CTV News interview (available online at http://watch.ctv.ca/news/#clip262388) said that "we are at day zero" of the new budget and the winners and losers are still to be determined while York University astronomer Paul Delaney, states unequivocally that Canada's space program is "looking for a quick right turn towards the Europeans" as a result of the budget (his CTV interview is available online at http://watch.ctv.ca/news/#clip262148).

Global National News ran a short piece quoting from a variety of sources (including a seven second clip of me) under the title "Obama's deficit plan cuts NASA funding" during their February 1st National Newscast while Canadian Press author Peter Rakobowchuk discussed how the "Canadian aerospace industry says Obama budget presents a great opportunity."

The Rakobowchuk article, perhaps the most comprehensive in the Canadian mainstream press, includes comments from Claude Lajeunesse, CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association of Canada ("a great opportunity for Canadian companies"), Carole Duval, a spokesperson with the Canadian Space Agency (who is quoted as saying the agency is reviewing the Obama budget and will speak to NASA "to see how we can work together on these initiatives), Christian Sallaberger, VP and Director of space exploration at Macdonald Dettwiler and Associates (who says his company "can definitely support the plan.") and even me again (I think I'm becoming a pundit).

The general consensus (mine included) is that Canadian space focused business and the CSA are well prepared for what's happening in the US.

But what about Canadian scientists and science policy makers? After all, a lot of the science we do in Canada is in cooperation with others and some of those people (especially in space) are Americans doing work for NASA.

Are scientists and policy makers in Canada prepared for that "quick right turn toward the Europeans" as predicted by Paul Delaney?

Evidently they're not. Perhaps the only disappointment over the last few days is the complete lack of editorial comment in science focused media such as the Science Canada blog, the Science Media Centre of Canada (SMCC) website or even the science policy news section of the Canadian Science Policy Centre (CSPC).

The SMCC hasn't had an update since December 15th 2009 (just after their appointment on December 9th of "veteran science journalist Penny Park as the inaugural Executive Director") so maybe it's unfair to expect much from them but Science Canada blogger Jeff Sharom has been posting stories every couple of days to the site since the site went up and it seems logical to provide at least some commentary on stories he's already posted such as "Obama to cut NASA's Moon Plan" and "NASA to Explore Private Space Flight."

Of course he's just a grad student so perhaps we shouldn't be too harsh even though his lack of voice is typical of the Canadian science focused blogsphere.

But the biggest disappointment simply has to be a total lack of any kind of coverage whatsoever in the science policy news section of the CSPC. The site (which grew organically out of the 2009 Canadian Science Policy Conference) doesn't even mention the changes at NASA or how this will effect hundreds of researcher presently working under CSA contracts or for other major Canadian players who subcontract to NASA or other US firms involved in space focused activities.

As well, there seems to be no articles or discussions anywhere of the international collaborations and partnerships required to undertake large scale science (an example of which is discussed in my article "Thirty Meter Telescope Awaits Construction Funding"). Actually there are no discussions anywhere on the site since the discussion forums are offline, awaiting the transfer "of all the old discussion topics from our previous website to the newly redesigned website."

These are obvious errors that the people interested in science policy in Canada should be addressing.

Satellite Market "Remarkably Unaffected" by Global Economic Crisis

According to the article "Space markets post strong growth, defy economic crisis" which was posted yesterday on the SpaceFlight Now web page, markets for commercial communications satellites, Earth observation spacecraft and their launchers are all "remarkably unaffected by the global economic crisis" and continue to soar ever higher with yearly double digit growth.

The article is based on recent report from a variety of sources, including consulting firms Northern Sky Research, Euroconsult, Futron Corporation and Forecast International and include assessments of commercial satellite supply and demand plus growth in the world market for expendable launch vehicles, both of which are expected to continue along their existing strong growth trajectory for at least next several years.

One exception to the generally positive forecast is the "Space Coast" region around Cape Canaveral and the Kennedy Space Center.

According to the article:

...very little of this new business will be launched from the world's foremost spaceport. Without new Presidential direction on human space goals, KSC is seemingly "moon stuck," facing major layoffs as the shuttle program ends.

And the growth is also detouring around Cape Canaveral's expendable boosters because the United Launch Alliance Atlas 5 and Delta 4 largely priced themselves out of the commercial market, now better satisfied by Europe's Ariane, the Russian Proton and Chinese boosters in emerging markets. 

In Canada, although there are no long term goals being set through the Canadian Space Agency (and with the CSA still patiently waiting for President Steve MacLean to release his update on Canadian space policy) local firms are well positioned to either expand into new areas of expertise (like what satellite component builders MDA and COM DEV are doing as described in my recent post "Canadian Component Builders "Moving Up the Food Chain" to Build Complete Satellites") or partner with larger firms (as Nautel has done with Ad Astra Rocket Company).
 
Recently, four commercial satellite services providers (EchoStar, Intelsat, SES and Telesat) formed the Coalition for Competitive Launches, an organization aimed at officially enhancing worldwide competition in the provision of commercial satellite launches but which unofficially seems to be focusing primarily on American launch providers.