Showing posts with label AIAC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AIAC. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 01, 2019

2018: The Year in Space for Canada

          By Chuck Black

Last January, no one would ever have thought that the big Canadian space story of 2018 would be the slow destruction of Westminster CO based Maxar Technologies' market valuation on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and its effect on Canada.

Maxar stock peaked with a January 4th, 2018 high of $65.25 US ($88.97 CDN) per share, then bottomed out with a December 24th, 2018 low of $9.55 US ($13.02) per share.

But while Maxar crashed and burned, a whole new generation of private sector, mostly Canadian owned and operated space focused firms quietly perfected their technology, slowly raised funds for expansion and painstakingly developed functional business plans.

Here's an overview of some of the important stories this blog has covered over the last year.

It's alliance with Dorval PQ based Bombardier Aerospace to turn Bombardier’s single-aisle C Series (now known as the Airbus A220) into a commercial success moved Ottobrunn Germany based Airbus Space and Defence into the front ranks of Canadian aerospace contractors and either saved or destroyed the Canadian aerospace industry, depending on who you're talking with. As outlined in the January 29th, 2018 post, "A Pyrrhic Victory for Bombardier," the year began with the successful dismissal of US trade sanctions. It ended with Bombardier selling off several business units and significant employee layoffs. As outlined in the December 20th, 2018 post, "Airbus Has Been in Canada for Thirty-Five Years and Wants to Increase its Contribution to Our Space Activities," Airbus finished out the year intending to utilize the good feelings flowing from the Canadian government because of the Bombardier partnership to grow its Canadian footprint. Graphic c/o Wendover Productions.

Maxar's strong start to the year was based on the perception (or presumption) that the Justin Trudeau Liberal government would follow through on the Federal Space Advisory Board (SAB) August 2017 preliminary report "Consultations on Canada’s future in space: What we heard," with enough new funding in the 2018 Federal Budget to finish the SAB report and light the way forward.

That final report, once written, was also expected to recommend at least one large new project with enough funding to keep Maxar happy, plus enough extra money to spread around to the rest of the space community to create the perception of a "balanced space program."

Three large projects were considered:
  • Additional RADARSAT's for the RCM (up to three more satellites on top of the currently planned three).
However, and as outlined in the March 8th, 2018 post, "Space Advisory Board Chair Admits Disappointment over Budget but Promises to Continue to Support Space Sector," the new funding didn't materialize, and the SAB slowly slid into irrelevance.

By the October 15th, 2018 post, "The Federal Space Advisory Board (SAB) Insists that It's Working Hard," there wasn't really anything for the SAB members to do, except attend conferences and reminisce about what could be accomplished with additional government funding.

It certainly didn't help much that, as outlined in the the February 27th, 2018 Toronto Star post, "Budget boosts science research, grant funding," the 2018 Federal budget substantially increased direct government funding for fundamental research, an area of interest which mollified many of the CSA's traditional academic partners.

Maxar also had a tough year on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE), dropping from its January 3rd, 2018 high of $82.01 CDN to bottom out at $13.04 CDN on December 24th, 2018 before recovering slightly in time for the year end. As outlined in the October 05, 2017 post, "MDA Acquisition of DigitalGlobe Closes; New US Based Combined Company now called Maxar Technologies," Richmond BC based MacDonald Dettwiler (a Canadian based company with a lengthy history of prime contracting for major space focused Canadian Space Agency (CSA), military and government programs) reincorporated in 2017 as US based Maxar in order to obtain access to the lucrative US satellite and military market. But the bottom fell out of the US geosynchronous (GEO) satellite market and, while the new Maxar did begin picking up US military, NASA and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) contracts, Canada waffled over the political implications of providing new contracts for iconic Canadian technology to a US based firm. As outlined in the December 31st, 2018 CNW press release, "S&P Dow Jones Indices Announces Changes to the S&P/TSX Canadian Indices," the shareholders of Maxar eventually completed a planned US "domestication" and "approved a change of domicile for the company from Canada to the United States." Maxar stock "will be removed from all S&P/TSX indices where the stock is a constituent prior to the open of trading on Monday, January 7th, 2019." Graphic c/o TSE: MAXR.

The 2018 Federal Budget also allocated $100Mln Cdn for low Earth orbit (LEO) broadband initiatives, although most of that was expected to end up with Ottawa ON based Telesat, which made the original project proposal as part of its "2018 Federal Pre-Budget Submission" to the 2018 Pre-Budget Consultations in Advance of the 2018 Budget in the fall of 2017.

By April, and as outlined in the April 20th, 2018 post, "Telesat Moves Forward with New Offices, New Plans, New Challenges and New Funding," Telesat was accessing financing supplied through a $100Mln CDN pot allocated through the Federal Strategic Innovation Fund in the 2018 Federal budget and a $20Mln CDN direct contribution from the government of Ontario. Several billion more will be needed to complete the program but the existing funding was a good start.

The assistance of the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) will also help. As outline in the November 27th, 2018 Telesat press release, "DARPA Selects Telesat’s LEO System to Support DARPA’s Blackjack Program," DARPA is exploring the use of Telesat's LEO system for DoD’s future space-based communications requirements.

Maxar CEO Howard Lance in July 2018. Photo c/o @MaxarTech.
Another potential source of government funding, the $950Mln Federal government “superclusters” initiative, didn't break in Maxar's favor either.

As outlined in the February 16th, 2018 post, "Ottawa Announces Winners of $950Mln 'Supercluster' Competition," a proposal to build a smart agri-food supercluster (which included Maxar participation) didn't make the final cut. 

A second proposal from the Ottawa ON based Satellite Canada Innovation Network (SATCAN), originally discussed in the August 3rd, 2017 post, "Satellite Canada Applies for Innovation SuperCluster Funds," wasn't funded either.

But other space focused hi-tech firms and their proposals fared better. Groups which included PQ based ABB Canada, Kitchener ON based Clearpath Robotics, Ottawa ON based C-CORE, Burnaby BC based D-Wave Systems, Cambridge ON based exactEarth and Vancouver BC based Urthecast all received supercluster funding. 

Maxar, which wasn't included in any of the successful applications, didn't immediately panic.

As late as the March 7th, 2018 Space News post, "SpaceX, Trudeau Will Help Lift Satellite Maker Maxar Out of Its Slide, CEO Says," Maxar CEO Howard Lance was still prepared to tell anyone willing to listen that, while the bottom had fallen out of the US geosynchronous (GEO) satellite market (a major source of revenue for Palo Alto CA based Maxar subsidiary SSL, which focused on the manufacture of expensive, high-profit communications satellites) and Canadian deals weren't moving forward, the situation was only temporary.

The markets would improve and, as noted explicitly in the article, Lance expected Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to come to Maxar's rescue with a new, government funded space project tailored to Maxar strengths before the end of the year.

It was a quiet year. As outlined in the December 28th, 2018 CSA post, "Highlights of 2018," the Canadian Space Agency listed twelve highlights for the year. They included the January 20th, 2018 addition of a new hand for the Canadarm, the tenth anniversary of the Special Purpose Dexterous Manipulator (SPDM) or DEXTRE on the International Space Station (ISS), the May 5th, 2018 announcement of the participants in the Canadian CubeSat Project, the fifteenth anniversary of SCISAT,  the arrival of the OSIRIS-Rex spacecraft (with Canada’s critical laser altimeter) at asteroid Bennu and the December 3rd, 2018 departure of Canadian astronaut David Saint-Jacques for the ISS. Graphic c/o CSA.

But by August, and as outlined in the August 10th, 2018 post, "Maxar Technologies Might be Getting Paranoid," Trudeau still hadn't offered up any space funding. Some, including New York NY based Spruce Point Capital Management, were even beginning to question the fundamental assumptions which had until now supported the Maxar stock price.

Maxar needed to develop a more proactive approach.

With the assistance of the Ottawa ON based Aerospace Industries Association of Canada (AIAC) and, as outlined in the September 13th, 2018 post, "Dead Cat Bounce! New Canadian Space "Coalition" Wants Much the Same as Last Time, But With Money," Maxar created an entirely new, ostensibly independent, Federal government lobby group tasked with helping to secure Canada's "place in space."

Over the next several weeks, the underlying structure of the lobby group, known as the Don't Let Go Canada coalition was uncovered in several articles, most notably the September 18th, 2018 post, "Colorado Based Maxar/MDA Asking for $1-2Bln to Build Another Canadarm for the US LOP-G."

Bains with Bridenstine on November 14th. Photo c/o Alex Tétreault.
The coalition was organized by Maxar through its Ontario based MDA subsidiary and focused primarily on encouraging the Canadian government to fund a multi-billion dollar "3rd generation Canadarm" for the proposed US LOP-G.
According to several high-level sources within the Canadian space industry, certain NASA employees (including Bill Gerstenmaier, the NASA administrator for human exploration and operations) are working with senior members of the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), the Aerospace Industry Association of Canada (AIAC) space committee and Maxar/MDA to co-ordinate a campaign to encourage the Federal government to announce funding for Canada's contribution to the LOP-G program as early as this fall, if possible.
The article also noted that much of the planning for the campaign (and many of the organizational e-mails) originated from MDA director of public affairs Leslie Swartman. MDA, as the holder of many of the original Canadarm patents, would be first in line for any new Canadarm derived work and could reasonably be expected to make a substantial profit off the program.

The coalition campaign culminated in an unusual November 2018 public request from NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine for Canada to sign-on to the LOP-G program during a stage presentation at the 2018 Canadian Aerospace Summit, which was held in Ottawa ON on November 13th - 14th, 2018.

As outlined in the November 15th, 2018 post, "Innovation Minister Navdeep Bains Politely Pushes NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine Under the Bus," Federal Innovation Minister Navdeep Bains provided a very public "no" to the NASA Administrator on the same stage, later the same day.


By now, there wasn't a lot of fight left in Maxar.

As outlined in the November 1st, 2018 post, "Maxar Technologies Share Price Collapses After Q3 Earnings Report Released," its stock price had collapsed two weeks earlier due to revenue shortfalls caused by the very same ongoing GEOsat market collapse noted back in March.

In response to the stock collapse and as outlined in the December 6th, 2018 Space News post, "Maxar sells portion of SSL real estate," Maxar began selling off its real estate holdings in an effort to raise money.

It also raised "the maximum consolidated debt leverage ratio," just in case the property sales couldn't generate enough cash to pay down the Maxar debt left over from its initial acquisition of SSL and Westminster CO based DigitalGlobe, the 2017 acquisition which began the process which turned Burnaby BC based MacDonald Dettwiler into Colorado based Maxar.

Worst of all, and as outlined in the December 12th, 2018 Nasdaq post, "Maxar Technologies Ltd. (MAXR) Ex-Dividend Date Scheduled for December 13, 2018," was the cancellation of Maxar's quarterly dividend.  Reducing or cancelling the amount of dividend paid to shareholders normally makes them unhappy and sends the message that the company is not doing well financially.

As outlined in the December 21st, 2018 Street Insider post, "Maxar Technologies (MAXR) continues to explore range of strategic alternatives for its GEO communications satellite line," the company "also continues to be actively engaged with its customers to procure additional GEO satellite orders."

Even with that, it's expected that Maxar will eventually be forced to divest itself of major portions (if not all) of its SSL large satellite manufacturing business. Maxar has promised to announce a decision regarding the strategic direction of its GEO business in the new year.

At least one Canadian expatriate could claim to have had a good year. Cape Canaveral FL based Moon Express (ME) founder and CEO Robert D. Richards (shown here with CSA president Sylvain Laporte) returned to Canada to open a ME branch office and "explore options for collaboration with the CSA and Canada’s space sector on technologies and payloads for missions to the Moon." As outlined in the November 30th, 2018 post, "Procurement Contracts, Not Science or Engineering, Will Define the Next Generation of Robotics and Planetary Rovers," ME is one of nine "US based companies (which) are now eligible to bid on NASA delivery services to the lunar surface through a new Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program, a series of fixed price procurement contracts NASA will begin issuing in 2019 which are intended to facilitate the planned US return to the Moon." The program also has more than a passing resemblance to the very successful Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) fixed priced NASA program, which helped to turn Hawthorne CA based SpaceX into a titan of the NewSpace industry. Photo c/o ME.

Other Canadian companies have also had an adventurous year. They include:
  • The thirty seven organizations participating in the Canadian Cubesat Project which, as discussed in the May 7th, 2018 post, "Canadian Cubesat Project Finally Moving Forward," received Federal funding through fifteen grants of between $200,000 - $250,000 to post-secondary based teams attempting to build functioning cubesats for launch beginning in 2020.
  • Montreal PQ based Northstar Earth and Space which, as outlined in the November 16th, 2018 post, "A $52Mln CDN Financing Deal for Northstar Earth and Space Inc.," received funding for the development of "a global environment information platform which will transform humanity's ability to manage our impact on Earth and its natural resources," only one day after Innovation Minister Bains rejected the NASA Administrator Bridenstine's offer to announce participation (and funding) for a Canadian contribution to the US LOP-G.

In 2018, other Federal government departments and private sector organizations explored the use of space based assets to solve Earth based problems. The June 8th, 2018 post, "NRCan Explores Space Mining," covered the Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) initiative for input on space mining as part of its process to develop a new Canadian Minerals and Metals Plan (CMMP). The October 25th, 2018 post, "A White Paper on the "Case for a Global Telemedicine Vehicle Network," noted Ottawa ON based C-COM Satellite Systems concern over a global lack of local health care resources and addressed the challenge using modern telemedicine and telecommunications technologies. By the end of the year, and as outlined in the December 6th, 2018 post, "Space Mining and Innovation Should Be Encouraged Through the Tax Code, According to NRCan and CATA Alliance," both NRCan and the Ottawa ON based Canadian Advance Technology Alliance (CATA Alliance) were suggesting that the best way to encourage innovative new space technologies was through the tax code and not via direct government grants. Graphic c/o Planetary Resources.

Some Canadian based firms attempted to overcome challenges related to perception and politics.

As outlined in the April 13th, 2018 post, "Ukrainian Rockets Like the Cyclone 4M Are Too Dangerous an Investment for Western Interests: Kyiv Post," Nova Scotia based Maritime Launch Services (MLS), a joint venture of three US based firms attempting to open a East Coast based launch facility for Ukrainian built Cyclone 4M rocket, spent most of the year scrambling to raise funds and convince the Federal government that they had a plan worth supporting. 

By spring, as outlined in the May 25th, 2018 post, "Maritime Launch Services Will Not Say When It Will Begin Building Proposed Canso NS Commercial Spaceport," the wind had gone out of the sails of the project, even as MLS left the door open for other rockets to launch at the proposed facility. 

To its credit, MLS noted quite correctly in its August 2018 "Submission to the Standing Committee on Finance" for the 2019 Pre-Budget Consultations in Advance of the 2019 Budget that its very difficult to get a launch licence in Canada and the regulations governing this activity should be revised. 

In essence, and without substantially revised legislation, no one will ever be able to launch an orbital rocket from Canadian soil. Here's hoping that changes in 2019.

Inuvik based satellite receivers, built almost three years ago, are unusable today, after the failure of multiple attempts to fulfill Canadian government licencing requirements. Photo c/o Rolf Skatteboe.

Another group with problems over existing Canadian legislation governing space activities was the entire town of Inuvik NWT. 

As outlined in the March 5th, 2018 post, "That Commercial Ground Station Built by New North Networks in Inuvik Still Can't be Used," a local company attempting to fulfill a contract for the European Space Agency (ESA), an international organization which includes the CSA as a "co-operating" member, was unable to do so, even after an almost three year wait, because of Federal government delays in providing the appropriate permits and approvals. 

According to the article:
From a legal standpoint, the existing barriers favor legacy players, such as the Federal government owned Inuvik Satellite Station Facility (ISSF), administered by the Canada Centre for Mapping and Earth Observation and part of Natural Resources Canada (CCMEO/NRCan), which opened in 2010 and is the only other ground station in the region
Eventually, as outlined in the May 31st, 2018 post, "Inuvik Mayor Calls Feds "Not Forthcoming" Regarding Private Sector Commercial Ground Station Application," even Inuvik Mayor Jim McDonald weighed in on the situation.

Over the summer, as outlined in the June 21st, 2018 post, "The Special Senate Committee on the Arctic Holds a Hearing on Northern Infrastructure & That "Unlicensed" Inuvik Groundstation," Senate hearings were held on the issue, but nothing ever came of it.

A year-end announcement by Seattle WA based Amazon may have rendered the whole issue mute.

As outlined in the December 03, 2018 post, "The New Amazon Web Services Ground Station (AWSGS) Will Disrupt Existing Ground Stations," a new "cloud-based product offering scalable computing power for satellite ground stations and data processing," using "Amazon’s current AWS cloud computing infrastructure." is likely only the latest step in rolling out of new, lower cost, satellite services to the public.

So what's going to happen next year in space for Canada? To find out, check out future editions of the Commercial Space blog.
Chuck Black.
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Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog.

Thursday, June 22, 2017

Classic Trek Offers Advice to the Canadian Space Industry on Our Latest Postponed Space Plan

         By Chuck Black

Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada (ISED) has gone on record to address the rumours that an expected report from the Federal Space Advisory Board will not be ready in time to meet the government's self-imposed June 2017 deadline for publication.

As outlined in a June 22nd, 2017 e-mail from ISED media relations officer Hans Parmar, the report is to be updated to become more "action oriented."


Parmar provided no estimate of when the final report would be completed and refused to answer a question on whether it will be ready for September, when an expected Federal Cabinet shuffle could potentially plop a new Liberal face into Innovation Minister Navdeep Bains' current portfolio and cause the entire process to reset to zero. 

According to Parmar:
Based on feedback from the Space Advisory Board consultations, the government heard that Canada needs a long term approach that recognizes the strategic importance of space and that is action-oriented.

The Government of Canada continues to work on a space strategy that will support growth in the sector and leverage the benefits of space for all Canadians.

This strategy will set a new approach for space – setting clear directions, promoting partnerships and defining a future role for Canada in space. This comprehensive approach will help to coordinate policies and programs across government, including Canada’s Defence Policy and the Innovation and Skills Plan.
An "action oriented" Boeing F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet at the 2014 Farnborough International Air Show. There's nothing like a quick reminder of the great many political fish still to fry on the Innovation Minister's plate and the June 22nd, 2017 CTV News Post, "Boeing plays down Bombardier dispute, still hopes to sell fighter jets to Canada," notes two in a single post. Another, as outlined in the April 17th, 2017 post, "'Massive' Review of Federal Science Funding Finally Released; Will Likely Soon 'Drop Down the Memory Hole'" also directly affects science funding and the Liberal "Innovation Agenda." A fourth crisis, the looming purchase of Canadian satellite communications provider Norsat by either an American hedge fund or a Chinese conglomerate is playing out this week in Vancouver. Photo c/o AP/Sang Tan.

While expected for some time, the delay first surfaced in the June 21st, 2017 SpaceQ post, "New Canadian Space Strategy Delayed," which didn't reference any primary sources, but did give two potential reasons for the delay.
  • First of all, "the Space Advisory Board was not announced until mid-April providing it little time to consult with stakeholders and to formulate a report for the government to analyze," which is true enough as things go, but could also indicate incompetence, since government reviews normally take far longer than the two and a half months the ruling Liberal party allotted. This would have been known in advance. 
    Nice, but not "action oriented." Graphic c/o CSA.
  • Secondly, "there was a greater response to the consultation process than was expected including numerous written submissions. What this all means is the government has a lot of input to digest." It could also indicate a lack of understanding of the complexity of the issues facing our space industry.
There is also the possibility that the Space Advisory Board was convened to give the space industry the perception of participation in the process for when the Liberal party rolled out another generic, but mostly useless document in the same vein as the February 7th, 2014 Conservative Party Canada's Space Policy Framework.

A potential template for this new paper might even have been one of the policy documents which derived from the "1st Canadian Space Policy Symposium," focused on "Aligning Canada’s Future in Space with Canada’s Innovation Agenda," an agenda chock full of Liberal party buzzwords, which was held in Ottawa on November 8th, 2016.

As outlined in the November 13th, 2016 post, "Generalists, Data Miners, Lotteries, Comedy, Open Access and the Future of Science in Canada," the Commercial Space blog mentioned the event in passing, as part of the coverage of the larger 2016 Canadian Science Policy Conference, but was refused admission to the space policy symposium.

Talk, but no action. Graphic c/o CSCA.
It's interesting to note that many of the people currently active in the Space Advisory Board did attend the 2016 Space Policy Symposium.

If the outline of the current postponed space policy document was known last November, then a three month turn around time becomes understandable, since the Space Advisory Board would be expected to simply "glad handle" and build consensus for an already existing plan, but wouldn't need to develop anything new.

In retrospect, it seems as if participants in both the 2016 Space Policy Conference and the more recent round table discussions of the Space Advisory Board were sold a bill of goods by the organizers, since people who might possibly disagree with the anticipated policy document were refused admission to the Space Policy Forum, and a reasonable discussion of options relating to Canada's Future in space, including contrary viewpoints, doesn't seem to have occurred until the round tables were held.

Now that expectations have been raised, the government will need to spend some time either distilling the round table discussions into a real policy document, or they'll need to find a way to bury the report.


Of course, this isn't the first time that a Federal minister has offered up a plan to "revitalize" the Canadian space industry and our space agency. 

Back in 2008, then Conservative Industry Minister Jim Prentice, offered up the following mandate to the then new Canadian Space Agency (CSA) president Steve MacLean:
Jim Prentice. Photo c/o Wikipedia
I have given Steve a mandate to make sweeping changes at the CSA. 
As we stand at this crossroads, he will revitalize the Agency. He will restore its ability to punch above its weight in an international quest. He will develop Canada’s capacity for a new era of prestige and achievement.  
And to that end, as one of Steve MacLean’s first acts as new President, the CSA will begin consultations with stakeholders that will lead to a new Long-Term Space Plan. 
I expect this plan – the fourth in the series – to be as influential for our generation of exploration and development as any plan that Canada has produced for charting our future in space. 
That’s a tall order. I know that Steve is capable of bringing together the stakeholders. Time is of the essence, and I look forward to the plan in the coming months. 
But after the 2008 election, Prentice moved on to became Minister of Environment. MacLean wrote his report, but it was never released to the public and, as outlined in the May 8th, 2017 post, "Steve MacLean's 2010 Long-Term Space Plan Surfaces, CSA Clarifies its Communications Policy & California's Rocket Tax," that document eventually became marketing material for the Gordon Group, an Ottawa based marketing company which assisted with its creation.

During the 2016 election, and as outlined in the October 13, 2015 post on "Part 2 of "Abandoning the Emerson Aerospace Review?," both the Liberals and the NDP wanted a review of the 2012 David Emerson led Aerospace Review (perhaps even culminating in a new "long-term space plan"), but once the Liberals gained power in October 2015, that review fell by the wayside.

The current Liberal government mostly supports the Emerson Review, but would prefer the electorate forgot that Emerson happened under Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper and currently enjoys wide bipartisan support.

As Mr. Scott, the Chief Engineer in the 1967 Star Trek episode, "Friday's Child," once said, "Fool me once, Shame on you. Fool me twice, Shame on me."
Chuck Black.
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Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog.

Tuesday, March 07, 2017

The Canadian Space Agency is Thinking About "Deep Space" and Relevance

          By Chuck Black

The Canadian Space Agency (CSA) has announced that it, along with "space agencies around the world" are "exploring how to contribute to the exciting new opportunities that will ensue as humanity takes its next steps into the solar system."

Groovy. This blog, along with most of the rest of the Canadian space industry, is absolutely up for that. We'd just like to be kept updated on a few of the specifics.

However, as outlined in the March 6th, 2017 CSA press release, "Canada prepares for the future of human spaceflight to deep space," not a lot of those details are currently available, although public comments on the process stress how very, very pleased everyone is.

According to the press release, "Over the course of the next year, the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) will provide multiple opportunities for Canada's space community (academia, industry and government departments) to propose innovative ideas for science and technologies in areas that could contribute to future human space exploration and generate benefits on earth. Opportunities to submit proposals will be consolidated" on the new CSA Funding Opportunities website.

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

It might even be a useful if the funding opportunities website didn't just link to the already existing CSA Announcements of Opportunity website and the main page of the Canadian Federal government Buyandsell.gc.ca website, which already posts CSA announcements of opportunities (AO), letters of interest (LOI), request for information (RFI) and other types of requests and funding opportunities.

A useful reminder that, except for an overall improvement in style, the current Justin Trudeau Liberal government isn't all that much different from the previous Stephen Harper Conservative government. This is especially true of our science and technology policy, which is currently wrapped around the high sounding idea of "Canada's Innovation Agenda," although most of the practical policy details are missing. The only real exception is the broad bipartisan support enjoyed by the recommendations of the 2012 David Emerson led Aerospace Review, which are mostly not discussed, since they led to the removal of procurement and policy making from the CSA portfolio in 2014. Graphic c/o the Winter 2017 Canadian Dimension magazine.

What the CSA is actually doing is madly hunting down data and information to bolster the concept that it's a useful organization.

It's why, as outlined in the March 6th, 2017 post "CSA offering $100K to $2Mln for STDP Industrial Capability-Building Contributions, MAYBE!," the CSA is posting announcements of opportunities (AOs) to provide financial support to businesses in the Canadian space industry that develop technological innovations with a potential for tangible economic benefits for Canada, and "to encourage the space industry to collaborate with the academic sector in the implementation of the AOs by promoting projects that will include student participation."

Maybe those academics and students will think more kindly of the CSA now, even through there is not a lot of money involved, no formal funding commitments have been made (the AO is pretty explicit about this) and any future funding is quite the ways down the road.

That's also why, as outlined in the February 13th, 2017 post, "OMX, Trump, Trudeau, Bombardier's Bailout, the UK Space Agency, UK Spaceports, CSA Earth Imaging Grants & MAFIC Studios," the CSA is exploring "the complementary use of drones and satellites to enhance EO applications and provide more comprehensive solutions to end-users," through its Earth Observation Application Development Program (EOADP).

AIAC VP Christie. Photo c/o author.
Maybe the drone industry will think more kindly of the CSA now, especially if they feel the need for an intermediary to manage their requirements (one of the listed reasons for the program is "to encourage the space industry to collaborate with the academic sector in the implementation of the AOs by promoting projects that will include student participation").

The need to develop a positive public image might also be at least part of the rational for the recent collaboration between the CSA, the Aerospace Industries Association of Canada (AIAC) and the Canadian Space Commerce Association (CSCA).

As outlined in the February 28th, 2017 SpaceQ post, "‘Old Space’ ‘New Space’ Collaborate on Canadian Space 2.0 Round Table," not much was said at the meeting, but a lot of people attended and everyone was publicly pleased with the result. According to AIAC executive vice-president Iain Christie, who also acted as the event's moderator, "we are very pleased with the discussions that took place at the Space 2.0 event last week."

Of course, most of what's really going on is the simple jockeying for Federal funding which is typical of Canada's pre-budget political process. We certainly should not begrudge the players looking for a few crumbs of sustenance in Budget 2017.

But the Federal liberals have already stated that real changes to the CSA, including the development of a new space plan for the long-term, won't happen until June 2017, well after this budget is released.

That's the real reason why, as outlined in the January 16th, 2017 post, "The REAL Funding Opportunity Behind the Upcoming Canadian Space Agency 'Long-Term Strategy'," no one expects any money will show up for science and space related projects until well after June 2017.

But, at least until then, all the players remain "very pleased." And our space agency is also "thinking" about "deep space."
Chuck Black.
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Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog.

Monday, December 12, 2016

Will the New Space Systems Loral $127Mln NASA Space Robotic Servicing Contract Help Canada?

          By Chuck Black

Using technology derived from the iconic Canadian developed Canadarm, Palo Alto, CA based Space Systems Loral (SSL) has received a $127Mln USD ($167Mln CDN) contract to supply the chassis, hardware and various other services for the NASA Restore-L space robotic servicing mission.

Page three of an undated power-point presentation on "Restore-L Mission Information; Package for NASA Solicitation #NNH15HEOMD001 Spacecraft Bus Concepts To Support The Asteroid Redirect Robotic Mission And In Space Robotic Servicing." As outlined in the June 23rd, 2016 NASA post, "NASA’s Restore-L Mission to Refuel Landsat 7, Demonstrate Crosscutting Technologies," the program will launch a robotic spacecraft in 2020 to demonstrate on-orbit satellite servicing and refueling, using a "carefully curated suite of satellite-servicing technologies." Graphic c/o Ron Ticker/NASA.

The new contract could help nudge SSL, as the present US reseller of this technology, into developing its own satellite servicing business. But whether Canada stands to benefit is another question entirely.

As outlined in the December 6th, 2016 Space News post, "NASA’s Restore-L contract nudges SSL closer to in-orbit servicing," SSL, a part of Delaware based SSL-MDA Holding, which also includes Richmond, BC based MacDonald Dettwiler (MDA), has "been actively entertaining the notion of launching a commercial in-orbit servicing business, one that would combine MDA’s past experience from the almost-launched Space Infrastructure Services (SIS) system in the early 2010s with SSL’s knowledge of satellite manufacturing."

Landsat 7 status as of 2014. Graphic c/o USGS/ EO Portal.
According to the post, "Restore-L is intended for launch in 2020, after which NASA will direct the spacecraft to dock with Landsat-7 in low Earth orbit for a test flight. Landsat-7 launched in 1999 aboard a Delta 2 rocket, and will have been in orbit for more than two decades based on current mission timelines."

As discussed in the January 15th, 2012 post, "MDA Satellite Servicing Agreement with Intelsat Expires," the SIS derived from a March, 2011 agreement between MDA and Luxemberg based Intelsat, to resell technology developed originally in the 1970's by DSMA Atcon (which developed a robot to load fuel into CANDU nuclear reactors) and Spar Aerospace (which was eventually purchased by MDA), using Canadian government funding.

That technology eventually became the Canadarm used to deploy, maneuver and capture payloads for the US space shuttle fleet; the mobile servicing system (MSS) which is used for much the same role on board the International Space Station (ISS); and the special purpose dexterous manipulator (SPDM), which is also known as DEXTRE and is also on board the ISS.

Given 30 years of operational history, there was certainly no problem with Canadarm technology.

Any robotic servicing satellite able to repair or refuel another satellite can also inspect and disable it. That makes it a potential weapon. That's also why, as outlined in the August 9th, 2016 post, "An Overview of the SSL/DARPA On-Orbit Satellite Assembly Program," at least some of the funding for SSL technology development has been coming from US military programs, which prefer to fund US owned companies with their manufacturing, research and development facilities located on US soil. This makes it difficult to create Canadian jobs using US military contracts, although national governments have been known to negotiate custom agreements when it suits their purpose. Graphic c/o DARPA.

However, as outlined in the November 1st, 2011 Space News post, "MDA Puts Sat Servicing on Hold; Core Businesses Doing Well," the real problem had to do with US government reticence towards funding a non-US based program. As outlined in the article:
NASA and the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) are expected to release requests for bids for a satellite servicing test project in the coming weeks. But whether MDA, as a Canadian company, will be permitted to bid on the work remains unclear. MDA has increased the U.S. content — and thus the development cost — of the system in an attempt to get U.S. regulatory approval.
(Then MDA CEO Dan) Friedmann said MDA has all but put the project on hold while waiting to see how NASA and DARPA proceed.  
"It is not prudent for us to proceed without getting clarity from the government and clarity on our participation in those programs,” Friedmann said. “We have an excellent customer, Intelsat. They do not have infinite patience, but they are patient."
Intelsat eventually ran out of patience. The deal fell through in January 2012 after the partners determined that they were unable to interest the US government in their program.

That satellite services project eventually morphed into Resolve-L and several other US government programs which continue to this day.

In 2012, MDA created a second opportunity to bid on US contracts, through its purchase of SSL. As outlined in the  June 27th, 2012 post, "MacDonald Dettwiler buys Space Systems Loral for $875M," the acquisition turned the company "into a global communications player." It also opened the door "for MDA to begin subcontracting US space projects like those for on-orbit satellite servicing through the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)."

But the door still needed to open just a little bit wider. It took MDA another four years to put the final pieces into place to facilitate sales to the US government.

A high level overview in an MD advertisement on page 27 of the November 28th, 2016 edition of the Hill Times, an Ottawa based "influential must-read for the savvy political and government insider." MDA and SSL are currently walking a fine line in fulfilling both the Canadian government requirements needed for bids on contracts such as the RADARSAT Constellation Mission (RCM) and the US government requirements to bid on contracts like the NASA Restore-L. Graphic c/o Hill Times.

Those included the creation of a San Francisco, California based holding company (SSL MDA Holdings) to serve as the operating entity for "all MDA businesses, including both the US and Canada," and the separation of SSL and MDA into unique and separate subsidiaries of the larger operating entity.

As outlined in the October 7th, 2016 post "Iconic MacDonald Dettwiler is Now SSL MDA Holdings, a US Based Company with a Canadian Subsidiary," and its October 18th, 2016 update, "A Quick Update to "Iconic Macdonald Dettwiler is now SSL MDA Holdings, a US Based Company," those steps were put into place within the last few months, which dovetails well with the recent NASA Restore-L award.

All of which provides no clear answer to the question of whether Canadians benefit from the sale of this technology to the US.

MDA executives seems to understand this situation, at least off the record, and have embarked on a campaign to address it, by running advertisements in various publications and giving presentations at industry specific public events such as the recent Canadian Aerospace Summit.

But MDA may need more than a PR campaign if they really want to convince Canadians that the sale of Canadarm technology to the US government is good for Canada, at least under the current constraints.

Here's hoping they try something soon.
Chuck Black.
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Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog.

Sunday, March 27, 2016

No Puppies Falling from the Heavens With Space Funding in this Federal Budget

          By Chuck Black

It's worth noting that puppies haven't begun falling from the heavens with new funding for the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) in the wake of last weeks Federal budget.

It's certainly not focused on growing  the "space class" as can be seen from the cover page of the 2016 Federal budget. For the full document along with the text of Finance Minister Bill Morneau’s budget speech, which he delivered on Tuesday in the House of Commons, check out the March 22nd, 2016 National Post article, "Federal budget 2016: The full document." For Federal government literature on the budget, check out the Budget 2016 website. Screenshot c/o Government of Canada

That budget, the first under the new Liberal government headed by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, predicted large deficits over the next five years (beginning with $29.4Bln CDN in the first year), which will be used to finance a new tax-free monthly child benefit, more money for First Nations, infrastructure spending and extended employment insurance benefits to hard-hit regions.

But it didn't provide any real boost in Federal funding for space technology development or discuss any new attempt to create a "long term space plan."

As outlined in the October 13th, 2015 post on, "Part 2: Abandoning the Emerson Aerospace Review?," both of those campaign promises were made and promoted in the media, but evidently weren't taken terribly seriously by the Liberal party candidates who originated them in the last Federal election.

Overall CSA funding is an estimated $432Mln CDN in 2016, approximately $49Mln CDN more than 2015's projected budget of $383Mln CDN. That total is actually declining when the RADARSAT Constellation Mission (RCM) is removed from the totals. As outlined in the January 12th, 2013 post "a $706Mln Fixed Price Contract and Hard Launch Date for RADARSAT Constellation," the RCM program should be pretty much wound down except for maintenance and support costs within the next two years.

And the "big announcement," that the government has committed up to $379Mln CDN over eight years (beginning in 2017), in order to maintain Canada's commitment to its International Space Station (ISS) partners, is something the government always knew it had to do in order to preserve slots for Canadian astronauts David Saint-Jacques and Jeremy Hansen to visit the ISS in 2019 and 2021. Of course, those travel commitments were made well before the current government took office.

The Aerospace Industries Association of Canada (AIAC) rather liked the Federal budget, at least if you take the March 22nd, 2016 press release, "AIAC applauds budget commitments to space, innovation, defence strategy" at face value. The press release applauds the $379Mln CDN the budget commits over the next eight years to extend Canada’s participation in the ISS to 2024. According to the press release, the budget "also reaffirmed last year’s commitment to provide $30 million over four years for Canadian participation in the European Space Agency’s Advanced Research in Telecommunications Systems (ARTES) program." However, the press release failed to mention $8.7Mln CDN which was set aside to to upgrade the anechoic chamber at the David Florida Laboratory test facility at Shirleys Bay, Ontario. As outlined in the expansively titled March 22nd, 2016 SpaceRef.ca post, "What You Need to Know About the Budget and Canada's Space Program," the funds will allow the CSA to "continue to support technology development in Canada's space sector through state-of-the-art assembly, integration and testing capabilities." Screenshot c/o AIAC.

Of course, some companies and institutions, although not likely firms focused around space activities, will absolutely benefit from the latest budget. As outlined in the March 25th, 2016 Motley Fool Canada post, "Get to Know 6 Companies Poised to Benefit From the Federal Budget," these firms are mostly focused around infrastructure, which is scheduled to receive $11.9Bln over five years. They include:
  • Etobicoke, ON. based Aecon Group - Canada's largest public construction and infrastructure development company.
  • Winnipeg, MB. based New Flyer Industries - The company manufactures transit buses and, with $3.4Bln CDN is tagged for transit spending. If new vehicles are part of the $3.4Bln tagged for transit spending in the budget, then New Flyer is very likely to get in on the action.
  • Mississauga, ON. based Pure Technologies - The Motley Fool article considers this company, with its focus on pipeline managements technologies, as being well placed to receive a large chunk of the $5Bln allocated in the budget for new water and waste water management technologies.
  • Montreal, PQ. based SNC-Lavalin - A "one stop shop when it comes to engineering and construction" according to the article. 
  • Edmonton, AB. based Stantec - A professional services company wrapped around design, energy, environmental and infrastructure projects.
More money (around $800Mln CDN over four years) is budgeted for incubators and accelerators to help grow new ideas and start small businesses. According to the Canadian Association of Business Incubation (CABI) there are currently 60+ business incubators and accelerators across Canada with a broad range of expertise. That total is sure to grow with this new funding.

A further $2Bln over three years is allocated for a new post-secondary institutions Strategic Investment Fund. This initiative will support up to 50 per cent of the eligible costs of infrastructure projects at post-secondary institutions and affiliated research and commercialization organizations, in collaboration with provinces and territories.

Taken together, it's not too shabby. But its also not directly related to the Canadian space industry, although space companies might certainly take advantage of many of the programs.  

It's worth noting that the Prospectors and Developers Association (PDAC) also came down in favor of the Federal budget. As outlined in the March 22nd, 2016 PDAC post "PDAC welcomes measures to support Canada’s mineral exploration and development sector," the organization was particularly happy with the renewal of the Mineral Exploration Tax Credit (METC) and the expansion of deductions allowed under the Canadian Exploration Expense (CEE)." As outlined in the June 30th, 2012 submission to the Emerson Aerospace Review under the title, "Using Tools from the Mining Industry to Spur Innovation and Grow the Canadian Space Industry," many of the legislative tools and regulations which currently support our domestic mining industry could also be used to support our space industry. Graphic c/o PDAC.

Although not mentioned in the budget, it's expected that Montreal, PQ based Bombardier Inc. will receive substantial Federal funding over the next little while. As outlined in the February 21st, 2016 post on "Saving Bombardier," the giant Canadian company requires the new funds in order to remain solvent and (perhaps) protect Canadian jobs.

Also not mentioned in the budget was funding for the upcoming (at least officially) Polar Communications and Weather (PCW) mission. As outlined in the February 14th, 2014 post, "'Team Canada' Solution for PCW Mission Competing Against US Bid," PCW development (estimated to cost upwards of $600Mln CDN in total) was expected to begin this year.

So where does that leave our space industry? Pretty much where we expected it to be.

As outlined in the September 16th, 2015 post, "Meanwhile, Back in the Real World: Seasoned Entrepreneurs are Jockeying for Position in the Fast Growing NewSpace Economy," the government isn't really in a position to drive space exploration and is not currently funding any large projects, except for those related to previously announced international initiatives.

Those hoping that military programs will require the purchase of space based assets might also be in for a disappointment. As outlined in the March 27th, 2016 CBC News post, "Canada's defence budget heads back to the future," the new Liberal government seems set to follow along the same path of inactivity as did its predecessor. For more on the intersection of Canadian space and the military, check out the four part series on "Canada's Military Space Policy." Graphic c/o CBC.

Companies like Telesat, MacDonald Dettwiler, UrtheCast (a space company which has taken advantage of legislation originally designed to support the mining industry) and exactEarth now drive our domestic space agenda irrespective of what Ottawa might want or wish simply because they have the money to do things and not just talk.

So the Federal government has moved on to other, less specific tools which the space industry may or may not decide to use. Innovation, incubators, infrastructure and accelerators are now the order of the day.

However, if someone could find an infrastructure project which required the use of space based assets (for example, the original mandate of Telesat Canada to improve communications in the far north, which required the development and use of communications satellites), then there might still be opportunities for a savvy space company.

Chuck Black.
But the CSA itself has become far less trendy. There are no puppies falling from the heavens with space funding for new programs in this Federal budget.

All that's really left for us to do is to wish our space companies the best of luck. They're in the driver seat now.
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Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog.

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