A Short History of Canada's Military Space Policy and How it Fits into the Current US Space Force Discussions

Part 5: The Current Liberal Government

          By Chuck Black

This series of posts is attempting to answer some of the questions surrounding the appropriate Canadian response to the recently announced US plan to create an expanded United States Space Force. 

Part one ("The Axworthy Doctrine") focused on how the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the early 1990's led to a new Canadian focus on aggressive, international peacekeeping missions requiring space focused communication and surveillance capabilities of a type which Canada didn't then possess.

Part two ("The Changing Political Landscape") discussed why Canada never had a military space policy prior to 1998 by going back to the 1960's and the federal liberal party under Lester Pearson and Pierre Trudeau. 

Part three ("Towards Northern Sovereignty") dealt with the changing focus of Canadian foreign policy from international peacekeeping towards northern sovereignty, a policy developed in the 1990's under then Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chrétien which also required a substantial space-focused component, and what happened when the Canadian government realized that it still didn't possess those capabilities.

Part four ("Funding an Appropriate Force") outlined Conservative Prime Prime  Minister Stephen Harper's reaction to the policies of the previous Liberal government. It would have been a great strategy, if only the Canadian government didn't keep cutting back on the budget. 

Here is part five of this series. 

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PM Trudeau in 2019. Photo c/o CP/ Darryl Dyck.

In the run up to the 2015 Federal Election, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau (the eldest son of Canada's fifteenth PM, Pierre Trudeau) instinctively understood that the problem with the Stephen Harper Conservative government (at least when it came to defence policy) was simply that no one could find the funding for the Conservative "Canada First Defence Strategy."

As outlined on the Liberal Party website:

We will maintain current National Defence spending levels, including current planned increases. 

Under Stephen Harper, investments in the Canadian Armed Forces have been erratic, promised increases in funding have been scaled back, and more than $10 billion of approved funding was left unspent. 

This mismanagement has left Canada’s Armed Forces underfunded and ill-equipped, and the courageous members of the Forces unsupported after years of dedicated service.

It sounded good. It's just a shame the new policy took until June 2017, well after the Trudeau government had won the October 15th, 2015 Federal election, to roll out..

As well, the new policy seemed to be more of a reaction to US policy which, under current US President Donald Trump, simply wasn't prepared to let Canada have as much of a free ride as had been true in previous eras.

If Canada could borrow military assets from its allies in order to complete a mission, then it would need to build up its indigenous capabilities.

The current statement of Liberal Defence policy (at least until after the next election, scheduled for October 21st, 2019) is the June 6th, 2017 "Strong, Secure, Engaged – Canada’s Defence Policy."

As outlined by Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan in his July 7th, 2017 statement in the House of Commons, "Strong, Secure, Engaged" – A new defence policy for Canada," the new plan will:

... recapitalize the Royal Canadian Air Force, with a full fleet of 88 advanced fighter jets to replace the aging CF-18s. This should have been done years ago. 

The previous government planned to purchase just 65 fighters, but didn’t actually purchase any, and didn’t budget adequately even for that inadequate fleet. 88 fighters are required to fully meet our NORAD and NATO obligations simultaneously, not just risk manage them, as the RCAF has had to do for a number of years. 

This plan fully funds, for the first time, the Royal Canadian Navy’s full complement of 15 Canadian Surface Combatant ships necessary to replace the existing frigates and retired destroyers. Fifteen. Not “up to” 15 and not 12. And definitely not six, which is the number the previous government’s plan would have paid for, as the Parliamentary Budget Officer reported last week.

Minister Sajjan. Photo c/o Chris Wattie/ Reuters.

The minister also promised to "recapitalize much of the Canadian Army’s land combat capabilities and aging vehicle fleets" and made "new commitments to emerging domains, particularly space, cyber and remotely piloted systems" in order to "address current and looming gaps in existing capabilities."

All of which sounds well and good, except when you note that, as outlined in the October 30th, 2018 Defence News post, "Canada to accept bids for new fighter jet in May — here are the potential competitors," Canada hasn't purchased any new fighter jets yet and doesn't even plan on taking bids for the replacement aircraft until May 2019.

As for the ships, it's worth noting that, as outlined in the February 8th, 2019 CBC News post, "Ottawa makes its $60B frigate project official, even as rival's court challenge goes forward," while a contract was awarded, no money seems to have changed hands.

Military procurement is a mess, and not likely to clean itself up anytime soon.

Most importantly, and as outlined in the March 6th, 2018 MacLeans post, "What’s happening to Canada’s defence spending?," no new funding was allocated in the 2018 Federal budget for the military, which kinda suggests that the Liberal defence policy is slowly walking down the same path as the previous Conservative plan.

As for Canada's space capabilities, there has been some movement, as outlined in the February 4th, 2019 post, "UTIAS-SFL and Raytheon Canada Building Military Funded Spy Sats," which noted $46.2Mln CDN for new funding under the Department of National Defence (DND) All Domain Situational Awareness Science & Technology (ADSA S&T) program. 

Also noteworthy were the eight Canadian companies which received multiple contracts totaling $6.7Mln CDN through the Department of National Defence (DND) in late 2018 in order to develop "situational awareness" applications focused around the analysis and assessment of synthetic aperture radar(SAR) data generated through Canada's Radarsat program. 

In this case, it was the funding mechanism, not the military strategy, which was noteworthy.

As outlined in the December 17th, 2018 post, "New Radarsat R&D Funding is Mostly for Software Analytics But Includes Some Interesting Surprises," the DND contracts were structured as public private partnerships with costs split 50-50 between DND and the various private sector participants.

But dropping a few million here or there for a few new programs doesn't amount to much compared to the total Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) annual budget of approximately $25Bln CDN. 

Canada's military space strategy remains mired in ideas generated decades before and still focuses on how to more effectively gain low-cost access to civilian and military US satellite command, control, communications and space situational awareness assets.

Although the strategy remains the same, most would agree that space is a far more complex environment to operate in today, than it was when Lloyd Axworthy held public office.

Is this our only choice in the matter or are there other options? That will be the subject of our final post on this topic.

Chuck Black.

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Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog. 









Last episode: "Funding an Appropriate Force," as part four of "A Short History of Canada's Military Space Policy and How it Fits into the Current US Space Force Discussions," continues.

Next episode: "Future War, Micro-Sats Controlled by AI "BattleStars" Supported by Fast Launching, Hypersonic Transports and Space Based Solar Power," as part six of "A Short History of Canada's Military Space Policy and How it Fits into the Current US Space Force Discussions," concludes.

Blue Origin Joins the US Military Rocket Building Club

          By Brian Orlotti

The US Air Force (USAF) has awarded a total $2.3Bln US ($3.0Bln CDN) in contracts to three firms to develop launch systems for national security payloads. The announcement is a watershed moment, highlighting the entry of a new player as well as new technology into the US national security launch apparatus.

The military contracts were awarded to:

• Kent WA based Blue Origin, which received $500Mln US ($650Mln CDN) to build its reusable New Glenn rocket.

• Centennial, CO based United Launch Services (ULS), a part of the larger United Launch Alliance (ULA), which received $967Mln USD ($1.25Bln CDN) to develop its "partially" reusable Vulcan rocket. ULA is the incumbent in this market and currently provides launch services to the US military using two expendable launch systems, the Delta IV and Atlas V. 

• Dulles VA based "non-reusable" Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems, which received $791.6Mln CDN ($1.03 CDN) for its Omega rocket. 

As outlined in the October 10th, 2018 Ars Technica post, "The military chooses which rockets it wants built for the next decade," the contracts are part of a US Department of Defense initiative to ensure stable military access to space and end US reliance on foreign-made rocket engines, such as the ULA Atlas V rocket, which uses Russian RD-180 engines.

Blue Origin’s and Northrop’s prototype vehicles are expected to be ready to fly by late 2024 while ULA’s Vulcan rocket is to be completed by March 2025.

Blue Origin’s award is of particular note, as it is the second NewSpace firm to win a US military contract after Hawthorne, CA based SpaceX. The USAF’s selection of Blue Origin is likely the hedging of bets to avoid dependence on SpaceX or any other single firm, a situation which happened previously with ULA. 

From its formation in 2006 as a joint venture between Sunnyvale CA based Lockheed Martin Space Systems and Berkley MI based Boeing Defense, Space & Security ULA dominated and served as the sole supplier for US military space launches until 2017, when SpaceX received accreditation.

It's worth noting that SpaceX received permission to launch military payloads only after it had an operational Falcon-9 program lofting commercial satellites into orbits. The SpaceX Falcon Heavy launcher (which was funded through NASA commercial crew contracts) is already certified for all Air Force requirements and, as outlined in the June 21st, 2018 post, "Air Force certifies Falcon Heavy, orders satellite launch for 2020," SpaceX currently has outstanding military contracts for the launcher.

In essence, the new awards will each cover the substantial research and development costs needed to roll out operational versions of what are essentially design studies, something not needed in the case of SpaceX.

Besides, the SpaceX Falcon Heavy launcher (which was funded through NASA commercial crew contracts) is already certified for all Air Force requirements. As outlined in the June 21st, 2018 post, "Air Force certifies Falcon Heavy, orders satellite launch for 2020," SpaceX currently has outstanding military contracts for this operational launcher.

Blue Origin’s New Glenn is a two-stage heavy-lift orbital launch vehicle, development of which began in 2012.

With a 7-meter (23 ft) diameter, the New Glenn with a reusable first stage as well as an optional third stage. Its first stage will be powered by seven in-house designed and built BE-4 liquid methane/oxygen engines producing 17,000 kN (3,800,000 lbf) of liftoff thrust.

New Glenn will be built at Blue Origin’s Florida factory and launched from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. In addition to commercial and military satelite launches, New Glenn will also be available for space tourism flights.

New Glenn’s first stage boosters are reusable and will be recovered downrange on the Atlantic Ocean via a ship acting as a floating landing platform in much the same way as SpaceX’s Falcon rockets.

The awarding of the USAF contract appears to have enabled Blue Origin’s further expansion. Following the USAF’s announcement, Blue Origin revealed that it will build a second launch site at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, enabling the company to launch from both the east and west coasts.

In addition, ULA announced in September that its upcoming Vulcan rocket will be powered by Blue Origin’s BE-4 engines.

Of course, providing US government funding to launch providers to develop new rocket launchers is a service not restricted to the military. NASA is also funding an entry for the next generation of rockets with the Space Launch System (SLS), a space shuttle derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle, which has been having more than its fair share of cost overruns and funding shortfalls.

Blue Origin’s entry into the realm of national security space launch is a hopeful sign that the space sector can learn from past mistakes, which include being locked into single supplier monopolies (a la ULA), cost-plus procurement contracts (which reward cost overruns) and expensive, single use launchers.

With multiple launch providers pursuing multiple markets and goals, the coming decades of space exploration will be far livelier than previous ones.

Brian Orlotti.

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Brian Orlotti is a network operator at the Ontario Research and Innovation Optical Network (ORION), a not-for-profit network service provider to the education and research sectors.

A Proposed New Hypersonic Flight Test Bed from Stratolaunch Systems

          By Brian Orlotti

Seattle WA based Stratolaunch Systems Corporation, the aerospace firm founded by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen, has announced that it is exploring the development of a series of rocket planes that would serve as a testbed for hypersonic flight.

As outlined in the September 20th, 2018 Geek Wire post, "Paul Allen’s Stratolaunch Systems lays out a roadmap for hypersonic rocket planes," Stratolaunch senior technical fellow for hypersonics Stephen Corda presented a concept study detailing a delta-wing uncrewed testbed aircraft called Hyper-Z at the 22nd American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics’ (AIAA) International Space Planes and Hypersonic Systems and Technologies conference, which was held on September 19th - 22nd in Orlando FL.

Called the Hyper-Z, the proposed rocket plane would feature a hydrogen-fueled rocket engine as its main propulsion system, but could also be equipped with an air-breathing engine, such as a scram-jet. The craft could achieve a maximum speed of Mach 11, or a maximum altitude of 477,000 feet.

Hyper-Z would be launched from Stratolaunch, the company’s massive twin-fuselage carrier aircraft, currently the world’s largest with a wingspan of 385 feet. The Stratolaunch is presently undergoing ground tests at California’s Mojave Air and Space Port, with its maiden test flight expected within the next few months.

Stratolaunch made its public debut in December 2011. The company was founded by American business magnate Paul G. Allen and Mojave CA based Scaled Composites founder Burt Rutan, who had previously collaborated on the creation of SpaceShipOne.

The company hopes that the Hyper-Z will make hypersonic flight accessible to universities small business, and other interested parties. The craft would serve as the first in a line of rocket-powered vehicles, including a crewed orbital space plane that the company has dubbed ‘Black Ice.’

Though Stratolaunch has not made a formal decision to build the Hyper-Z nor given a timeline, the path is being prepared with the proposed building of a subscale version called Hyper-A. This precursor vehicle would be slightly bigger than the US Air Force’s Boeing-built X-51 Waverider aircraft, which made a record-setting hypersonic flight in 2013. The Hyper-A is designed to fly beyond Mach 6 and could potentially reach Mach 7.7.

Stratolaunch has already performed low-speed wind tunnel tests of the Hyper-Z design, and high-speed wind tunnel tests are to begin this fall. While no timeline has been given for Hyper-Z’s development, the Stratolaunch carrier aircraft is expected to require 1.5 to 2 years of flight testing before becoming operational. This would mean no flights of the Hyper-A could take place before 2020.

Hypersonic flight holds the civilian promise of vastly reduced global flight times as well as cheaper space launches, but will have substantial military applications as well and the program will likely need to receive initial funding from military sources.

Should Stratolaunch scrape together enough money to proceed with the Hyper-Z, both civilian and military requirements will need to be met.

Brian Orlotti.

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Brian Orlotti is a network operator at the Ontario Research and Innovation Optical Network (ORION), a not-for-profit network service provider to the education and research sectors.