Canada's New "Sorta" Space Plan Only Really Covers the Canadian Space Agency, Not "Whole of Government" Activities

          By Chuck Black

Almost a month after the March 6th, 2019 formal release of "Exploration, Imagination, Innovation - A New Space Strategy for Canada" by the governing Justin Trudeau Liberals, it's becoming increasingly obvious that the new Canadian space strategy is simply not the comprehensive "whole of government review" of activities, policies and legislation expected.

According to the February 23rd, 2015 Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat website on the Whole of Government Framework, since 2005 the Treasury Board has "supported the development of a common, government-wide approach to the collection, management, and reporting of financial and non-financial information on program objectives, performance, and results." The whole-of-government framework maps "the financial and non-financial contributions of departments, agencies, and Crown corporations receiving appropriations to a set of 16 high-level Government of Canada outcome areas within four Government of Canada spending areas—Economic, Social, International, and Government Affairs." Graphic c/o Treasury Board of Canada.

At the very least, it's certainly not a long-term space plan.

It is instead a very limited listing of upcoming Canadian Space Agency (CSA) activities and priorities focused almost entirely around component contributions to the US led Lunar Gateway, a program currently in a state of flux.

It's not that there's anything wrong with that. It's simply that, after waiting for over fifteen years for something a little bit more comprehensive and perhaps a little more Canadian, we were hoping for better.

For example, the new plan doesn't really reference other space focused initiatives from other Federal government departments, such as the new Canadian Minerals and Metals Plan (CMMP), a Canadian government program last discussed in the March 4th, 2019 post, "The New Canadian Minerals and Metals Plan Stakes its Claim on the Space Industry."

The new plan doesn't really reference academia or the private sector either, except perhaps to congratulate them for their past accomplishments and to offer up a few more opportunities for funding.

The new Canadian space strategy isn't even really a self contained plan since its primary justification is as a smaller component of the Liberal’s 2017 Innovation and Skills Plan which is focused almost entirely around jobs creation.

Traditional long-term space plans, beginning with the 1967 "Chapman Report," known more formally as "Upper Atmosphere and Space Programs in Canada" by J.H. Chapman, P.A. Forsyth, P.A. Lapp and G.N. Patterson, were far larger and contained considerably more information collected from a variety of government departments.

For example, as outlined in the June 1967 Science Council of Canada overview of the 1967 Chapman report, under the title "Report No. 1, A Space Program for Canada," the 140+ page Chapman report was divided into three parts:

The first describes current and projected government, university, and industrial programs for the 1961 to 1971 period in considerable detail. Statistical information on these programs is compiled from the original sources. The comments and recommendations of the study group are included.  

The second part is devoted to the texts of agreements, memoranda of understanding, and other international arrangements in effect on October 31, 1966, and which record the official undertakings with regard to the Alouette-ISIS Scientific Program, the International Communications Satellite Program, the St. John's, Newfoundland, Tracking and Telemetry Station, and the operation of the Churchill Research Range. 

Part three of the report is in the nature of an appendix to the first part, presenting the High Altitude Research Program of McGill University in considerably greater detail. 

This was a reasonably comprehensive listing of pretty much everything the Canadian government was supporting in this area at the time.

John Chapman (1921 - 1979) and another of his legacies, the Alouette-1 satellite. As outlined in the Fall 1992 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Canadian Review post, "The 30th Anniversary of Alouette I," Chapman "was convinced of the need to develop the capability to design and build space hardware in Canadian industry and to move away from the practice of relying solely on the expertise of the government laboratories. As a result, Alouette II and the ISIS satellites were built, with steadily increasing participation by Canadian industry." Photo's c/o IEEE Canada.

But the new, twenty page Liberal space strategy is only a seventh the size of its illustrious predecessor and far less comprehensive. Once we get past the ministers message and a couple of nice full page and half page graphics, the remaining pages are divided into three sections:

A series of discussions on "Canada's Legacy in Space," including the role of space in developing Canadian science expertise and a short essay on "The Socio-Economic Benefits of Space," which covers metrics related to gross domestic revenues, employment and industry and private sector opportunities for future growth. 

An overview of "Canada's Vision for Space," focused around science and the need to utilize space focused technologies as "a key element" of the Federal Government’s 2017 Innovation and Skills Plan, focused around generating new middle class jobs in  innovative sectors. 

Several pages on "Delivering the Vision," which included $1.9Bln CDN for a next-generation AI-enabled deep-space robotic system (essentially, a new "Canadarm") for the US led Lunar Gateway program, a re-commitment to the Canadian astronaut program, substantial new educational outreach and several other programs relating to solving "everyday challenges" for Canadians.

While the new policy does mention "science," at least in passing, it certainly doesn't attempt to inventory space focused initiatives taking place across Canada through the National Research Council (NRC) or other government and private sector organizations.

Such an inventory, a standard component of the traditional "whole of government" approach to the problem is certainly not impossible to generate. A good place to start could be the Industry Page on this blog.

The lack of an inventory would suggest that the new policy is not the comprehensive, final word on Canadian space initiatives pitched by the Canadian government.

Also, while the new strategy does mention the need to "create a modern regulatory framework," it doesn't go into any detail on which specific regulations need to be addressed and updated. As outlined in both the December 14th, 2018 post, "2019 Federal Pre-Budget Consultation Report Mentions "Significant, Ongoing Investments to Advance Canada’s Space Program"" and the March 5th, 2018 post, "That Commercial Ground Station Built by New North Networks in Inuvik Still Can't be Used," specific areas requiring updated legislation have certainly presented themselves to those willing to do the appropriate research.

Others are slowly coming to the conclusion that the new space strategy is neither a panacea nor a "whole of government" document.

As outlined in the March 25th, 2019 SpaceQ post, "Opinion: Finally, a New Canadian Space Strategy – But Wait, What do we do With This?," a few are beginning to ask about the absence of a Canadian government commitment to regulatory reform in the document.

As outlined in the April 1st, 2019 Ottawa Citizen post, "Steer: Space needs more Canada – but Canada needs a better approach to space," at least one person, Dr. Cassandra Steer, an independent space security consultant contracted to Kanata ON based Space Strategies Consulting Ltd., has also questioned the absence of commitment to international space security initiatives in the new space policy.

These concerns are just the beginning. Expect more to surface over the next few months as the full extent of the Liberals failure in the area begins to sink in.

Chuck Black.

___________________________________________________________

Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog. 

UPDATED: Don't Fire Up The SpaceX "Trampolines!" Roscosmos Head Dmitry Rogozin Isn't Visiting the US After All

          By Henry Stewart

Preparations for an upcoming US visit by Roscosmos State Corporation Director General Dmitry Rogozin are still moving forward despite growing criticism in the US.

DG Rogozin Photo c/o Sergey Savostyanov/TASS.

Last October, NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine extended an invitation for his Russian counterpart to visit NASA headquarters in Houston TX in the new year.

But others objected. As outlined in the January 1st, 2019 Politico post, "'Wow': NASA startles with invitation to sanctioned Russian," some Russian hawks considered Rogozin to be "no typical rocket-science technocrat. He is an ultranationalist politician with a record of stark racism and homophobia who is under American sanctions."

And that's a quote from a news story. Imagine the sort of comments the editorialists are generating.

To be fair to Rogazin, he's a well known public figure, in both Russia and the US. As outlined on his official Russian Government bio page, Rogozin has served terms in a variety of political positions including "Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO)" and Russian Deputy Prime Minister.

According to his Wikipedia entry:

Rogozin was involved in several diplomatic conflicts following the 2014 Crimean crisis. He was added to the sanctions list by the US, Canada and the European Union (EU) and had conflicts with Romania, after Romania barred his plane from entering its airspace and Moldova." 

Rogazin is also well known for his colorful language. As outlined in the April 29th, 2014 NBC News post, "Trampoline to Space? Russian Official Tells NASA to Take a Flying Leap," he once said that sanctions against the Russian space agency to protest Russian activities in the Crimea would have no effect, since American astronauts couldn't fly to the International Space Station (ISS) on a "trampoline."

At the time, he was referring to the lack of US capability to launch astronauts into space (they've been flying on Russian rockets since 2011 when the US Space shuttle program wound down). That situation will likely end this year as new, human rated rockets developed under the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program are rolled-out, which could be part of the reason why Rogozin is visiting NASA.

Rogozin has also butted heads with the Canadian government. The April 28th, 2014 post, "M3MSat and the Politics of Dancing in the Crimea," noted a quote from the then deputy Russian Prime Minister stating that the Canadian government will certainly "have to pay – both in terms of money and reputation – for a decision to ditch the launch of its (Maritime Monitoring and Messaging Micro-Satellite or M3MSat) by a Russian rocket." M3MSat was rescheduled and eventually launched on June 22nd, 2016 from the Satish Dhawan Space Centre in India. Graphic c/o CSB.

According to the Politico post, NASA Administrator Bridenstine also:

...told the Russian state news agency TASS in mid-October that he had succeeded in temporarily waiving sanctions on Rogozin so that he could visit Houston and speak at Rice University, Bridenstine’s alma mater, sometime after the new year.  

The US and Russia cooperate extensively on space exploration and, according to the TASS report, Bridenstine stressed the need for a “strong working relationship” with his counterpart...

More recently, and as outlined in the January 2nd, 2019 TASS post, "NASA prepares for Roscosmos chief's visit underway despite criticism in Washington," plans for the visit are still moving forward although specifics are hard to come by.

But the harsh words from critics are continuing, at least for now. This may not matter to Bridenstine, who is looking for specific commitments from Russia and others (including Canada) to commit to the NASA's Lunar Orbital Platform-Gateway (LOP-G), or Rogozin.

As outlined in the July 10th, 2018 post, "The Russian Space Program is Entering a Dark Age," Rogozin has his own domestic concerns to contend with.

Space is one of the few areas where the US and Russia have managed to cooperate. Here's hoping that cooperation continues.

Editors Note: Almost as soon as the above article was posted and, as outlined in the January 7th, 2019 Politico Space post, "More friction in U.S.-Russia space relationship," came word from NASA that the US "has revoked its invitation to Russia’s top space official, Dmitry Rogozin, after fierce pushback from lawmakers over Rogozin’s history of racist and homophobic remarks and because he is under sanctions for involvement in the annexation of Crimea." 

The chorus of lawmakers was led by Democratic senators Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and Robert Menendez of New Jersey. The Russians also seem to have cooled  to the idea of participating in the proposed US led NASA Lunar Orbital Platform-Gateway (LOP-G). 

The article quoted Brian Weeden, a technical adviser at the Washington DC based Secure World Foundation, who said that "the International Space Station isn’t in jeopardy, but the shifting geopolitical landscape and political tensions are going to create challenges for the next relationship (building the LOP-G)."

_______________________________________________________________________

Henry Stewart is the pseudonym of a Toronto based aerospace writer.

Thursdays Soyuz MS-10 Rocket Failure Could End Up Assisting US Commercial Crew Development

          By Henry Stewart

Both astronauts are safe after a Russian Soyuz MS-10 rocket failed less than two minutes after launching an American and a Russian on their scheduled Expedition 57-58 mission to the International Space Station (ISS) on Thursday morning.

It was the first failure of a manned Soyuz booster at high altitude since April 1975, when Soyuz 7K-T No.39 also failed to achieve orbit.

As outlined in the October 11th, 2018 Associated Press post, "2 astronauts safe after Soyuz forced to make emergency landing," NASA astronaut Nick Hague and Roscosmos cosmonaut Alexey Ovchinin were both subjected "to heavy gravitational forces as their capsule automatically jettisoned from the Soyuz booster rocket and fell back to Earth at a sharper-than-normal angle and landed about 20 kilometres (12 miles) east of the city of Dzhezkazgan in Kazakhstan."

This latest failure is probably not going to help the Russian space industry.

But it might end up helping Hawthorne CA based SpaceX and Houston TX based Boeing. Both companies are building privately operated crew vehicles under the US Commercial Crew Development program designed to replace Russian rockets and Soyuz capsules with US boosters and spacecraft for low Earth orbit and ISS resupply missions.

At press time, it is not known what impact the Soyuz MS-10 failure and subsequent investigation will have on the ISS crew schedule. According to the October 11th, 2018 Canadian Space Agency (CSA) press release, "Canadian Space Agency Statement on Soyuz Launch Abort," the CSA is monitoring the situation:

A thorough investigation into the cause of the incident will be conducted by Roscosmos, the Russian space agency. It is not known whether this will affect Canadian astronaut David Saint-Jacques' launch date of December 20, 2018.

According to the press release, both astronauts are en route to the Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Center in Star City, Russia, outside Moscow for debriefing and medical examinations.

As outlined in the October 11th, 2018 Reuters post, "Astronauts Taking Off for International Space Station Make Emergency Landing," Russia immediately suspended all manned space launches.

Dmitry Rogozin, the chief of the Roscosmos State Corporation for Space Activities (Roscosmos) also ordered a state commission to be set up to "investigate what had gone wrong."

Image c/o @JimBridenstine.

As outlined in the Reuters post:

The failure is a setback for the Russian space programme and the latest in a string of mishaps.  

In August, a hole appeared in a Soyuz capsule already docked to the ISS which caused a brief loss of air pressure and had to be patched. Rogozin has said it could have been "sabotage".

For now, the United States relies on Moscow to carry its astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) which was launched 20 years ago. NASA tentatively plans to send its first crew to the ISS using a SpaceX craft instead of a Soyuz next April. 

Washington and NASA echoed those thoughts.

NASA’s Administrator Jim Bridenstine remarked on his twitter feed that “NASA astronaut Nick Hague and Russian cosmonaut Alexey Ovchinin are in good condition following today’s aborted launch. I’m grateful that everyone is safe. A thorough investigation into the cause of the incident will be conducted”

According to the October 11th, 2018 The Verge post, "Today’s failed Soyuz launch complicates the future of the International Space Station," the Russian Soyuz spacecraft "is currently the only vehicle that can take humans to and from the ISS, and the rocket is now grounded from human spaceflight for the foreseeable future. That means NASA may not be able to send astronauts to the station for a while, which could eventually leave the ISS without a crew."

According to the post, "NASA has been working for years on new ways to get its astronauts to the ISS," but neither the SpaceX manned Dragon spacecraft / Falcon 9 configuration nor the Boeing CST-100 spacecraft/Atlas V system is currently flight ready. Both programs are expected to take their first manned flights sometime next year.

When it comes to rockets, the New York NY based Space Angels are fiscal experts for the growing private sector. As outlined in the preamble to the Q3 2018 Space Investment Quarterly Report, "in our last issue, we saw growing evidence that 2018 would be the Year of Small Launch and indeed that trend has continued in Q3 2018, with investment in Launch now exceeding $1Bln US ($1.3Bln CDN) year-to-date." The Space Angels also noted an increase in Series B rounds for satellite start-ups and China’s rapid growth in private investment for the space industry. Graphic c/o Space Angels. 

Canadian astronaut David Saint-Jacques is currently at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in southern Kazakhstan where he served as back astronaut for the current mission and continues to train for his now postponed Expedition 58-59 mission.

_______________________________________________________________________

Henry Stewart is the pseudonym of a Toronto based aerospace writer.