The Growing Military Challenges From Foreign Space Assets

          By Henry Stewart

The US Air Force has released an unclassified report on the growing military challenges posed by foreign controlled space assets.

No sharks, but "frickin" laser beams are included. An interesting overview of potential space based weapons from the NASIC "Competing in Space" report. Graphic c/o NASIC.

The fifteen page report, titled "Competing in Space," contains sections on space trends, assets, applications, satellites, launch capabilities, warfare, situational awareness, cyber and electronic threats, anti-satellite missiles, energy directed weapons in space and an overall outlook for the future.

As outlined in the January 16th, 2019 National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC) post, "USAF, NASIC releases unclassified ‘Competing in Space’ assessment," the report was created at the request of Air Force senior leaders by the NASIC public affairs office at Wright PAtterson Air Force Base OH to serve as a discussion awareness tool for the public.

It's essential reading to provide context for American plans to create an independent US Space Force co-equal with other branches of the military.

NASIC is the US Air Force unit tasked with analyzing military intelligence on foreign air and space forces, their weapons and systems.

_______________________________________________________________________

Henry Stewart is the pseudonym of a Toronto based aerospace writer.

US Government Releases 2019 Missile Defence Review

          By Henry Stewart

The US government has released it's latest military review covering the threat posed by Russian, Chinese, North Korean and Iranian missiles and the ways to counter such threats. And this time, at least according to US President Donald Trump, US allies like Canada will have to pay their "fair share" when the new system is deployed.

Cover page of the unclassified version of the "2019 Missile Defence Review." Graphic c/o Office of the Secretary of Defence. 

As outlined in the January 17th 2019 CTV News post, "Canadian officials look for answers as Trump unveils missile-defence plan" the new report puts a heavy emphasis on "space-based sensors and defences to detect, track and ultimately stop missile attacks against the US and its allies from anywhere in the world."

According to the post:

The final report had been highly anticipated in Ottawa as Canada and the US prepare to launch discussions about upgrading North America's aging early-warning system to protect against attacks that use more advanced technology. 

The North American Aerospace Defence Command, or Norad, is currently configured to detect incoming ballistic missiles and foreign aircraft such as bombers, but not threats such as cruise and hypersonic missiles.

The report also "underscored the importance of being able to defend against attacks with interceptors like those employed by the US ballistic-missile defence shield, which Canada famously opted not to join in 2005."

A partial, unclassified, version of the review is available online, under the title, "2019 Missile Defence Review."

As outlined in the January 17th, 2019 The Drive post, "Here's All You Need To Know About The New Missile Defense Review That Was Just Released," expanding and improving "the US missile defense shield will require significant time and resources, as well. At present, it's unclear whether or not the next defense budget will be smaller or larger than the last."

It will also require much discussion and cooperation between traditional US allies like Canada in order to effectively deploy and fund. A lot of Canadian based think-tanks including the Calgary AB based Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Vancouver BC based Fraser Institute have recently been recently arguing for Canadian participation in the program, although the Federal government has offered up no concrete movement in this area.

Here's wishing them luck with that.

Editors Note: For an interesting overview of the Missile Defence Review, check out this January 29th, 2019 post on "A discussion on the 2019 Missile Defense Review."  

It's an  audio recording of a presentation held at the Washington DC based Brookings Institution with James H. Anderson, the US assistant secretary of defense for strategy, plans, and capabilities.

_______________________________________________________________________

Henry Stewart is the pseudonym of a Toronto based aerospace writer.

Going to the Bar to Watch the US Midterm Election on Tuesday Night

          By Chuck Black

The US is wrapping up one of the most consequential US midterm elections on record and the aftershocks are expected to reverberate even across the space industry, at least according to the November 2nd, 2018 issue of "POLITICO Space," the weekly online "must-read briefing on the policies and personalities shaping the second space age."

This blog will be covering the US elections on Tuesday November 6th, 2018 from the main barstool of the Toronto ON based Madison Avenue Pub, which will be hosting several hundred expatriate US citizens who will be watching the activities on the major networks from a dozen or so strategically placed televisions throughout the bar.

As for POLITICO, they say that the new year is "shaping up to be a spaceflight turning point" and the politicians, democrats and republicans, are looking to leverage their positions to influence policy.

Issues include:

• The eventual status of the proposed US "Space Force," a possible new branch of the US armed forces intended to control military operations in outer space. It's a topic also discussed in the October 15, 2018 post, "Blue Origin Joins the US Military Rocket Building Club."

• The new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), a replacement for the old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) which, although negotiated to a successful conclusion between the three primary parties, has not been ratified yet by either the Canadian Parliament or the US House of Representatives. 

As outlined in the November 5th, 2018 CBC News post, "How the US midterm elections could shake up Canadian business," some Canadian policy experts say "a Democratic win is not necessarily better for the Canadian economy or Canadian business."

• Which Democrat or Republican representative will become the new head of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology after current chairman Lamar Smith (who is not standing for reelection) retires. 

Screen shots c/o ADMO.

• Whether or not funding should even go to space activities. An example of this would include the series of attack ads from Lizzie Fletcher, a Democrat trying to unseat Rep. John Culberson, the current chair of the House Appropriations Committees' Commerce, Justice and Science Subcommittee, which has jurisdiction over NASA funding. 

The ad accuses Culberson of preferring to spend money "to fund the search for aliens on Jupiter’s icy moon Europa" instead of providing funds for flood protection in his district. 

Fletcher promotes herself as being "Down to Earth, Where We Need Her" and her ads promise that “Lizzie Fletcher will invest in humans, not aliens.”

The action at the Madison begins as soon as the polls close across the US. I'll be showing up around 8pm EST. Feel free to drop by, say hi, tell me your story and buy me a drink.

Especially that last thing.

Chuck Black.

__________________________________________________________

Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog.

New US Initiatives on Orbital Traffic Management, Cleaning up "Space Junk" and Creating a US Space Force

         By Chuck Black

US president Donald Trump continues to put his own stamp on American space activities, most recently at the June 18th, 2018 meeting of the National Space Council.

The first initiative, as outlined in the June 18th, 2018 Department of Commerce (DoC) press release, "Space Policy Directive 3 Brings Space Traffic Coordination to Commerce," was expected, and a logical follow-on from previous policy outlined in April 2018 by VP Mike Pence and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.

As outlined in the DoC press release:

The policy acknowledges the rapidly increasing volume and diversity of commercial space activity and announces that the Department of Commerce should be the new civil agency interface for space traffic management (STM) and space situational awareness (SSA).

As outlined in the June 18th, 2018 NASAWatch post, "President To Sign Directive Dealing With Space Traffic Management," other US Federal government departments have also been assigned new roles:

...the Department of Defense will take the lead on developing an authoritative catalog of space objects; the Department of Commerce will be responsible for the releasable portions of the catalog for collision avoidance purposes; the Department of Commerce and the Department of Transportation will lead the development of standards and practices, and the State Department will lead US efforts to conduct these activities internationally with transparency.

One of the goals of new policies is to track and reduce the growing  threat of orbital debris by using a variety of mostly undefined (so far at least) private and public sector technologies.

An overview of Space Policy Directive – 3 (SPD-3) is available online, as part of the June 18, 2018 Whitehouse.gov post, "President Donald J. Trump is Achieving a Safe and Secure Future in Space."

The second part of the presentation, the part where Trump said he would direct the Pentagon to create a “space force” as a new branch of the US military to shore up American dominance in space, was also a logical progression of current US thought in this area.

As outlined most recently in the April 2nd, 2018 post, "What George Friedman's 2009 Book "The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the Next Century" Said About Space," the ideas and concepts have been knocking around Washington since at least the 2nd George Bush administration.

And, according to the June 18th, 2018 Forbes Beltway Brief post, "Trump's 'Space Force' Motivated By Russian, Chinese Threats To Critical U.S. Orbital Systems," the current satellite infrastructure (which includes military communications, Earth imaging and global positioning satellites) has "become integral to how America conducts military operations on Earth, Russia and China are developing ways of degrading or destroying US satellites in wartime," and therefore the US must develop ways to defend itself:

Against that backdrop, the president's announcement today is arguably timely, because the military space program may be approaching a moment of crisis. 

Mr. Trump made it clear in his remarks that he wants America to regain its lead in space across all relevant areas -- military, civil and commercial -- but it is in the military realm where great-power rivalry is most apparent. 

If the Pentagon doesn't step up its game, the nation's security will be significantly degraded.

Now that these new, US space initiatives are being discussed seriously and publicly, expect national governments (such as Canada) and international organizations (such as the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space) to slowly begin to move their own ideas forward.

The full video of the June 18th, 2018 meeting of the National Space Council, including the president's speech, is available on YouTube for those who'd like to cut through the bias and spin of the traditional media.

Chuck Black.

__________________________________________________________

Chuck Black is the editor of the Commercial Space blog.